Retail Scan

Scan

Retail Scan

Scan symbols 19
HDELOWESHOPASELULUNKESBUXMCDCMGCOSTWMTETGTETJXEDPZYUMDECKCROXANFXRT
Watchlists 1
@retail
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 32 rows · screens, not recommendations

Retail is bifurcated hard: off-price, home improvement, and value (TGT, CROX, XRT, HD, TJX) are in confirmed uptrends near highs, while QSR and athletic/fashion names (MCD, NKE, LULU, DPZ) bleed on death crosses — the consumer is trading down everywhere but the value channel is winning.

Latest bar Friday 2026-06-26 (all names fresh).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Value/off-price wins, full-price fades — XRT (RSI 63.4) and TJX/TGT near highs; NKE/LULU/DPZ in active structural collapses; no pure oversold-quality entries in retail today
Key insight TGT (RSI 65.4, +31% vs SMA200, pricePctVsVwap +36.8%) is the leading name but extended — poc $88.18 vs current $140 means 59% of volume historically traded FAR below; the rally is a sentiment re-rate, not a fundamental anchor. TJX (RSI 39.9, golden cross, +2.2% vs SMA200) is the best-quality pullback setup: thesis intact, -6.32% 7D on 2.16x volume = high-quality dip

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% Trend Signal
HD $348.86 67.1 +7.6% +4.35% +10.58% +9.3% weak-up ⚠️ EXTENDED
TGT $140.39 65.4 +7.9% +5.89% +9.40% +18.3% strong-up ⚠️ EXTENDED/FROTH
XRT $88.72 63.4 +3.9% +1.53% +5.90% +13.2% up 🔒 HOLD
CROX $127.76 63.5 +4.3% -5.43% +7.91% +60.6% strong-up ⚠️ EXTENDED
ANF $91.51 62.4 +8.9% +5.92% +12.39% +2.7% up 🔒 HOLD
SBUX $104.60 61.9 +5.2% +2.41% +2.45% +21.2% strong-up 🔒 HOLD
YUM $156.41 57.7 +3.3% +0.10% +2.89% +2.1% strong-up 🔒 HOLD
SHOP $116.86 56.9 +4.0% +2.62% +9.62% +4.5% weak-up 🔍 WATCH
CMG $33.34 59.2 +7.6% +3.16% +1.99% +8.0% weak-up 🔍 WATCH
LOW $222.48 53.9 +3.1% +2.51% +2.60% -2.9% strong-down 🔍 WATCH
LULU $117.57 47.4 -0.6% +4.05% -10.28% -19.4% strong-down ❌ DON'T BUY
DECK $104.56 46.5 -4.1% -2.99% -8.58% +11.2% weak-down 🔍 WATCH
AS $34.17 45.6 -2.5% -5.25% -6.77% +8.7% strong-down ❌ DON'T BUY
DPZ $298.18 43.5 -2.8% -3.77% -3.75% -13.8% strong-down ❌ DON'T BUY
COST $952.54 41.2 -1.3% -0.54% -5.10% -3.0% down 🔍 WATCH
MCD $269.76 40.7 -2.8% -3.52% -3.32% -11.2% strong-down ❌ DON'T BUY
TJX $155.43 39.9 -3.9% -6.32% -1.01% +0.5% weak-down ✅ OVERSOLD-QUALITY
WMT $115.69 37.5 -2.0% -1.71% -2.40% -5.7% down 🔍 WATCH
NKE $40.75 35.4 -7.1% -7.08% -10.58% -20.0% strong-down ❌ DON'T BUY

Tier Analysis

RSI 40+ — Leaders (Hold/Watch):

HD (RSI 67.1, +7.6% vs SMA20) is approaching overbought but weak-up trend with death cross means the recovery is real but not confirmed. TGT (RSI 65.4, strong-up, golden cross) is the momentum leader — +47.67% 1Y alpha, +31.2% vs SMA200. The froth read is important though: pricePctVsVwap +36.79% (VWAP $102.64, poc $88.18) — the majority of historical volume traded near $88-95, so the current $140 price is a re-rate; extended but structural, not a froth short. SBUX and YUM are the quality QSR holds — golden cross, above SMA200, steady RSI.

ANF (RSI 62.4, up, +2.1% vs SMA200) is surprising — recovered from last year's highs collapse (+10.63% 1Y) with improving structure, death cross resolving. SHOP (RSI 56.9, weak-up, -14.6% vs SMA200) is the tricky one: above SMA20 (+4%) but death cross + deep below SMA200 = improvement, not healed.

LOW (RSI 53.9, strong-down, death cross) is a dead-cat tell — bounced off SMA20 after -24% from high but below SMA200 (-8.3%). COST (RSI 41.2, golden cross) is notable: near flat vs SMA200 (-0.3%), just experiencing a rare pullback; QSR-style value play on a consumer flight-to-value thesis.

RSI 25-40 — Oversold:

TJX (RSI 39.9, golden cross, +2.2% vs SMA200, -8.57% from 52wk high) is the best risk/reward setup in retail: off-price retailer holding SMA200 support, pulled back -6.32% 7D on 2.16x volume to near SMA200 ($152.15) — quality name oversold. WMT (RSI 37.5, golden cross, near-flat vs SMA200) similar shape — stable grower near SMA200 support after a -14.4% drawdown from high.

NKE (RSI 35.4, death cross, -28.6% vs SMA200) is the trap: washed RSI but no floor. -49% from high, -29.88% below VWAP ($58.11) with poc $43.96 — volume history says fair value is $44, not $41, so even the poc doesn't support current price as accumulation-zone. MCD (RSI 40.7, death cross, -10.3% vs SMA200) is another death cross where RSI oversold means nothing without structural support.

RSI < 25 — None.

Froth Read

TGT: price $140.39, pricePctVsVwap +36.79% (VWAP $102.64, poc $88.18). Strong structural re-rate (golden cross, +31% vs SMA200), but running well above VWAP anchor. Not irrational — sentiment flip on value positioning — but trim zone for active traders.

CROX: pricePctVsVwap +41.93% (VWAP $90.02, poc $81.46). Similar — golden cross, strong-up, but extended above volume anchor. Near 52wk high (-1.6%).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
TJX $155.43 39.9 -1.01% Best retail entry — golden cross, +2.2% vs SMA200, oversold pull from 52wk high (-8.6%); watch SMA200 ($152) as floor
WMT $115.69 37.5 -2.40% Defensive compounder — golden cross, near SMA200 ($116.47). Long-term accumulate; -14.4% from high
COST $952.54 41.2 -5.10% Quality pullback — golden cross, -0.3% vs SMA200, RSI 41 is a rare buy zone for this name
SBUX $104.60 61.9 +2.45% Best QSR structure — any dip to SMA20 ($99.45) is add zone

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD SBUX, YUM, ANF, XRT Golden cross / strong-up; thesis intact, near highs
✅ OVERSOLD-QUALITY TJX RSI 39.9, golden cross, +2.2% vs SMA200 — rare pullback in a long-term winner
📈 ACCUMULATE WMT, COST Defensive compounders at SMA200 support; golden cross structure
⚠️ EXTENDED — TRIM TGT, CROX +36-42% above VWAP; strong thesis but don't add at these levels
⚠️ EXTENDED HD RSI 67.1, death cross overhead; recovery run but structure unconfirmed
🔍 WATCH SHOP, CMG, DECK, LOW Improving but not healed; need SMA200 reclaim
❌ DON'T BUY NKE, LULU, MCD, DPZ, AS Death cross, deep below SMA200; structural collapse, not dips

What Changed This Week

  • TJX -6.32% 7D on 2.16x volume — high-quality shakeout, now at SMA200; entry zone open
  • TGT +5.89% 7D continuing its re-rate surge; near 52wk high (-1.7%)
  • HD +4.35% 7D, ANF +5.92% 7D — home improvement + teen retail recovering
  • NKE -7.08% 7D on 1.44x volume — selling acceleration, no stabilization signs
  • COST RSI 41.2 — rare oversold reading for this perennial compounder; quality-dip alert
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Jun 25 ScanRetail Scan Jun 20 ScanRetail Scan Jun 16 UpdateRetail Candidates Jul 7 ScanRetail Scan Jul 11 ScanRetail Scan — July 10, 2026 Close Jun 16 ScanRetail Scan Jul 17 ScanRetail Scan — July 17, 2026 Close May 29 ScanRetail Scan Jul 25 ScanRetail Scan — July 24, 2026 Close Jul 28 ScanRetail Scan — July 28, 2026 Close

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