Retail Scan — August 22, 2026 Close

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Retail Scan — August 22, 2026 Close

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 37 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-14-retail-scan.md

Walmart's quarterly print landed hard this week — the stock fell 9.15% on the session it reported, and by Friday's close the damage compounds: RSI washed out from 55.7 to 29.6, the week down -10.03%, the 30-day change flipped negative to -5.15%, and price is now sitting -12.5% below its 200-day average. TJX cratered in the same week — RSI collapsing from 42.0 to 25.4, the board's lowest print, price down -7.61% on the week — though whether that's read-through from Walmart's miss or its own separate pressure isn't clear from the tape alone. TGT was the lone name pulling the other direction, extending further into overbought (RSI 72.3→76.0) and sitting just 0.02% off its 52-week high.

Data as-of 2026-08-21 close. All numbers from precomputed summaries/retail.json. Prior scan: 2026-08-14-retail-scan (2026-08-14, data as-of 2026-08-14 close) — the summary's own 7-day window runs 2026-08-14 to 2026-08-21, so the comparisons below line up exactly with that prior scan. ONON appears on this board for the first time; no prior-scan comparison exists for it.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 The Walmart miss hit the retail cohort hard — WMT and TJX both cratered into oversold territory, while TGT is the lone name still extending.
Key insight WMT is now trading 12.5% below its 200-day average after this week's earnings-driven slide, even though it's still up 5.86% over the past year and 97.52% over three — a long uptrend now genuinely under test, not a broken one.

What's Going On

Walmart is the story of this scan. The stock fell 9.15% on its reporting session, and the damage carries through the week: RSI dropped from 55.7 to 29.6 (the board's second-lowest print), price from $115.27 to $103.70, the week down -10.03%, and the 30-day change flipping from +2.43% to -5.15%. The long-horizon picture keeps this from reading as a broken trend outright: WMT is still up 5.86% over the past year, 37.83% over two years, and 97.52% over three — a genuine multi-year re-rate. But price is now 12.5% below its 200-day average ($118.52), so the trend is currently under test at that level, not simply "intact."

TJX moved just as sharply the same week: RSI fell from 42.0 to 25.4, the board's lowest print and deep into oversold, price down from $152.11 to $140.53 (-7.61% on the week, -9.57% on the month). TJX sits -9.5% below its 200-day average — its trailing year is roughly flat rather than negative (+2.2%, though alpha1y is -19.62, meaning it's still lagging the broader market) — so like WMT this reads as a trend under test at the 200-day rather than a clean breakdown; there's no confirmed catalyst behind the move, and whether it's Walmart read-through or something specific to TJX isn't established by the price data alone.

ONON also sits deep in oversold (RSI 32.8) with real long-horizon damage — down 32.66% over the past year and 25.1% below its 200-day (alpha1y -54.48) — but it's new to this board this scan, so there's no prior print to compare against.

TGT is the counterweight: RSI extended from 72.3 to 76.0, price from $154.48 to $165.44, now sitting just 0.02% off its 52-week high with a 70.45% one-year gain and 39.2% distance above its 200-day. COST and YUM both held up reasonably (COST RSI 55.0→49.0 but still near its 200-day; YUM RSI 45.3→54.3, improving). Elsewhere, HD, LOW, MCD, SBUX, CMG, DPZ, NKE, DECK, CROX, AS, LULU, ANF, and XRT largely tracked the broader consumer board without a sharp break tied specifically to retail. Of the names with genuinely damaged long trends — below their 200-day with a negative trailing-year return — HD (-3% / -15.61%), LOW (-9% / -15.47%), and MCD (-9.1% / -13.5%) are the group; WMT and TJX are now below their 200-day too, but with roughly flat-to-positive trailing-year returns (+5.86% and +2.2%), which reads as a trend under test rather than the same kind of structural damage.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-14 close → 2026-08-21 close)

  • WMT collapsed on its earnings print: RSI 55.7→29.6, price $115.27→$103.70, 7D +3.06%→-10.03%, 30D +2.43%→-5.15% (flipped negative, now -12.5% below its 200-day).
  • TJX cratered: RSI 42.0→25.4, price $152.11→$140.53, 7D -5.43%→-7.61%, 30D +1.07%→-9.57%.
  • TGT extended further into overbought: RSI 72.3→76.0, price $154.48→$165.44, 7D +3.98%→+7.08%, 30D +12.56%→+19.95% (now 0.02% from its 52-week high).
  • SHOP cooled off overbought: RSI 67.1→60.9, price $154.32→$149.25, 7D +1.81%→-3.32%, 30D +24.9%→+26.03%.
  • COST eased: RSI 55.0→49.0, price $961.10→$947.74, 7D +1.40%→-1.37%, 30D +5.03%→+2.20%.
  • YUM improved: RSI 45.3→54.3, 7D -1.76%→+3.28%, 30D -2.92%→+3.67%.
  • HD, LOW, MCD, DPZ, ANF, XRT all traded within a narrower range, no sharp break.
  • ONON is new to this board this scan — RSI 32.8, 30D -18.09% — no prior-scan comparison available.

How To Read The Board

Golden-cross names (SBUX, TGT, TJX, DECK, CROX, ANF, XRT) mean the 50-day average sits above the 200-day — TJX's crash to RSI 25.4 this scan happened inside that technically golden-crossed group, a reminder that the cross label alone doesn't prevent a sharp reversal. Death-cross names (HD, LOW, SHOP, AS, LULU, NKE, MCD, CMG, WMT, DPZ, YUM, ONON) should have any bounce read as counter-trend until the cross itself flips. On the long-horizon test specifically: WMT and TJX are now both below their 200-day averages after this week, but both still carry roughly flat-to-positive trailing-year returns (WMT +5.86%, TJX +2.2%, with WMT's multi-year record strongly positive at change2y +37.83% and change3y +97.52%) — a trend under test rather than broken. ONON is the genuinely weak one: below its 200-day by 25.1% with a trailing-year return of -32.66%, real structural damage rather than a pullback.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
TGT $165.44 76.0 $150.79 +9.7% +7.08% +19.95% 🟠 Overbought
SHOP $149.25 60.9 $140.94 +5.9% -3.32% +26.03% 🟡 Neutral
ANF $109.01 57.5 $107.50 +1.4% +0.86% +13.5% 🟡 Neutral
SBUX $107.08 55.0 $105.65 +1.3% -0.59% +2.98% 🟡 Neutral
YUM $152.99 54.3 $149.64 +2.2% +3.28% +3.67% 🟡 Neutral
LULU $121.07 51.9 $121.17 -0.1% +1.25% +6.79% 🟡 Neutral
DPZ $341.85 51.3 $350.11 -2.4% -1.24% +6.88% 🟡 Neutral
LOW $216.09 50.0 $216.64 -0.3% -1.08% +5.75% 🟡 Neutral
MCD $270.95 49.9 $271.06 0.0% -0.69% +2.80% 🟡 Neutral
COST $947.74 49.0 $953.09 -0.6% -1.37% +2.20% 🟡 Neutral
NKE $40.76 46.0 $41.49 -1.8% +0.07% -3.44% 🟡 Neutral
HD $335.61 46.0 $342.48 -2.0% -0.96% +1.26% 🟡 Neutral
XRT $87.71 46.1 $89.70 -2.2% -1.44% -1.16% 🟡 Neutral
DECK $91.68 40.8 $95.82 -4.3% -1.51% -10.53% 🟡 Neutral
AS $32.63 39.8 $34.77 -6.1% -0.73% -5.09% 🟢 Oversold
CROX $122.11 38.6 $131.71 -7.3% -7.31% -10.35% 🟢 Oversold
ONON $30.02 32.8 $34.64 -13.3% -6.86% -18.09% 🟢 Oversold
WMT $103.70 29.6 $112.21 -7.6% -10.03% -5.15% 🟢 Oversold
TJX $140.53 25.4 $154.72 -9.2% -7.61% -9.57% 🟢 Oversold

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI<25): None — TJX at 25.4 is just above that line.

Oversold (25-40): TJX (25.4), WMT (29.6), ONON (32.8), CROX (38.6), AS (39.8) — five names, up from two (AS, DECK) last scan.

Neutral/Strong (40+): The rest of the board, spanning DECK (40.8) to TGT (76.0, the board's sole overbought print).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
WMT $103.70 29.6 -5.15% Earnings-driven washout; 12.5% below its 200-day but still up 97.52% over three years — long trend under test, not broken
TJX $140.53 25.4 -9.57% Board's lowest RSI; below its 200-day but trailing year is roughly flat (+2.2%), so this reads as under test, not broken — cause unconfirmed
ONON $30.02 32.8 -18.09% New to this board; 25.1% below its 200-day and down 32.66% over the past year
TGT $165.44 76.0 +19.95% Sole overbought print, now 0.02% from its 52-week high
DECK, AS, CROX see table 38.6–40.8 -5% to -10% All three below or near their 200-day; watch alongside the broader washout

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH WMT, TJX Both freshly below their 200-day after this week, but with flat-to-positive trailing-year returns — under test, not broken; SMA200 levels ($118.52 / $155.23) decide it
⚠️ AVOID ONON New to the board and genuinely weak — 25.1% below its 200-day, down 32.66% over the past year
⚠️ AVOID TGT Sole overbought print, extending for a third straight scan and sitting at its 52-week high
⚠️ AVOID HD, LOW, MCD Below their 200-day with negative trailing-year returns — structurally weak on both windows
🔒 HOLD SHOP, ANF, SBUX, YUM, COST Steady to improving, no long-horizon flags
🔍 WATCH DECK, AS, CROX, NKE, XRT Mixed, several below their 200-day; watch for whether the retail-wide pressure spreads

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
WMT's 200-day ($118.52) Price sits 12.5% below it after this week's print — the level that separates "deep pullback" from "trend break" on a name still up 97.52% over three years
TJX's next print Board's lowest RSI (25.4); confirm whether this is Walmart read-through or a separate driver
TGT's RSI Extending for a third straight scan, now essentially at its 52-week high
ONON's follow-through New to the board, already deep in oversold with genuine long-horizon damage
Whether the WMT/TJX washout spreads to HD, LOW, and the rest of the cohort Both leaders reported inside the same week; watch for broader retail read-through

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/long-horizon): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-21 close — retail.
  • Walmart's -9.15% earnings-print-day move: this week's earnings print (context provided for this scan; no separate news receipt captured this session).
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.