Retail Scan — August 22, 2026 Close
Retail Scan — August 22, 2026 Close
Walmart's quarterly print landed hard this week — the stock fell 9.15% on the session it reported, and by Friday's close the damage compounds: RSI washed out from 55.7 to 29.6, the week down -10.03%, the 30-day change flipped negative to -5.15%, and price is now sitting -12.5% below its 200-day average. TJX cratered in the same week — RSI collapsing from 42.0 to 25.4, the board's lowest print, price down -7.61% on the week — though whether that's read-through from Walmart's miss or its own separate pressure isn't clear from the tape alone. TGT was the lone name pulling the other direction, extending further into overbought (RSI 72.3→76.0) and sitting just 0.02% off its 52-week high.
Data as-of 2026-08-21 close. All numbers from precomputed summaries/retail.json. Prior scan: 2026-08-14-retail-scan (2026-08-14, data as-of 2026-08-14 close) — the summary's own 7-day window runs 2026-08-14 to 2026-08-21, so the comparisons below line up exactly with that prior scan. ONON appears on this board for the first time; no prior-scan comparison exists for it.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 The Walmart miss hit the retail cohort hard — WMT and TJX both cratered into oversold territory, while TGT is the lone name still extending. |
| Key insight | WMT is now trading 12.5% below its 200-day average after this week's earnings-driven slide, even though it's still up 5.86% over the past year and 97.52% over three — a long uptrend now genuinely under test, not a broken one. |
What's Going On
Walmart is the story of this scan. The stock fell 9.15% on its reporting session, and the damage carries through the week: RSI dropped from 55.7 to 29.6 (the board's second-lowest print), price from $115.27 to $103.70, the week down -10.03%, and the 30-day change flipping from +2.43% to -5.15%. The long-horizon picture keeps this from reading as a broken trend outright: WMT is still up 5.86% over the past year, 37.83% over two years, and 97.52% over three — a genuine multi-year re-rate. But price is now 12.5% below its 200-day average ($118.52), so the trend is currently under test at that level, not simply "intact."
TJX moved just as sharply the same week: RSI fell from 42.0 to 25.4, the board's lowest print and deep into oversold, price down from $152.11 to $140.53 (-7.61% on the week, -9.57% on the month). TJX sits -9.5% below its 200-day average — its trailing year is roughly flat rather than negative (+2.2%, though alpha1y is -19.62, meaning it's still lagging the broader market) — so like WMT this reads as a trend under test at the 200-day rather than a clean breakdown; there's no confirmed catalyst behind the move, and whether it's Walmart read-through or something specific to TJX isn't established by the price data alone.
ONON also sits deep in oversold (RSI 32.8) with real long-horizon damage — down 32.66% over the past year and 25.1% below its 200-day (alpha1y -54.48) — but it's new to this board this scan, so there's no prior print to compare against.
TGT is the counterweight: RSI extended from 72.3 to 76.0, price from $154.48 to $165.44, now sitting just 0.02% off its 52-week high with a 70.45% one-year gain and 39.2% distance above its 200-day. COST and YUM both held up reasonably (COST RSI 55.0→49.0 but still near its 200-day; YUM RSI 45.3→54.3, improving). Elsewhere, HD, LOW, MCD, SBUX, CMG, DPZ, NKE, DECK, CROX, AS, LULU, ANF, and XRT largely tracked the broader consumer board without a sharp break tied specifically to retail. Of the names with genuinely damaged long trends — below their 200-day with a negative trailing-year return — HD (-3% / -15.61%), LOW (-9% / -15.47%), and MCD (-9.1% / -13.5%) are the group; WMT and TJX are now below their 200-day too, but with roughly flat-to-positive trailing-year returns (+5.86% and +2.2%), which reads as a trend under test rather than the same kind of structural damage.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-14 close → 2026-08-21 close)
- WMT collapsed on its earnings print: RSI 55.7→29.6, price $115.27→$103.70, 7D +3.06%→-10.03%, 30D +2.43%→-5.15% (flipped negative, now -12.5% below its 200-day).
- TJX cratered: RSI 42.0→25.4, price $152.11→$140.53, 7D -5.43%→-7.61%, 30D +1.07%→-9.57%.
- TGT extended further into overbought: RSI 72.3→76.0, price $154.48→$165.44, 7D +3.98%→+7.08%, 30D +12.56%→+19.95% (now 0.02% from its 52-week high).
- SHOP cooled off overbought: RSI 67.1→60.9, price $154.32→$149.25, 7D +1.81%→-3.32%, 30D +24.9%→+26.03%.
- COST eased: RSI 55.0→49.0, price $961.10→$947.74, 7D +1.40%→-1.37%, 30D +5.03%→+2.20%.
- YUM improved: RSI 45.3→54.3, 7D -1.76%→+3.28%, 30D -2.92%→+3.67%.
- HD, LOW, MCD, DPZ, ANF, XRT all traded within a narrower range, no sharp break.
- ONON is new to this board this scan — RSI 32.8, 30D -18.09% — no prior-scan comparison available.
How To Read The Board
Golden-cross names (SBUX, TGT, TJX, DECK, CROX, ANF, XRT) mean the 50-day average sits above the 200-day — TJX's crash to RSI 25.4 this scan happened inside that technically golden-crossed group, a reminder that the cross label alone doesn't prevent a sharp reversal. Death-cross names (HD, LOW, SHOP, AS, LULU, NKE, MCD, CMG, WMT, DPZ, YUM, ONON) should have any bounce read as counter-trend until the cross itself flips. On the long-horizon test specifically: WMT and TJX are now both below their 200-day averages after this week, but both still carry roughly flat-to-positive trailing-year returns (WMT +5.86%, TJX +2.2%, with WMT's multi-year record strongly positive at change2y +37.83% and change3y +97.52%) — a trend under test rather than broken. ONON is the genuinely weak one: below its 200-day by 25.1% with a trailing-year return of -32.66%, real structural damage rather than a pullback.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | $165.44 | 76.0 | $150.79 | +9.7% | +7.08% | +19.95% | 🟠 Overbought |
| SHOP | $149.25 | 60.9 | $140.94 | +5.9% | -3.32% | +26.03% | 🟡 Neutral |
| ANF | $109.01 | 57.5 | $107.50 | +1.4% | +0.86% | +13.5% | 🟡 Neutral |
| SBUX | $107.08 | 55.0 | $105.65 | +1.3% | -0.59% | +2.98% | 🟡 Neutral |
| YUM | $152.99 | 54.3 | $149.64 | +2.2% | +3.28% | +3.67% | 🟡 Neutral |
| LULU | $121.07 | 51.9 | $121.17 | -0.1% | +1.25% | +6.79% | 🟡 Neutral |
| DPZ | $341.85 | 51.3 | $350.11 | -2.4% | -1.24% | +6.88% | 🟡 Neutral |
| LOW | $216.09 | 50.0 | $216.64 | -0.3% | -1.08% | +5.75% | 🟡 Neutral |
| MCD | $270.95 | 49.9 | $271.06 | 0.0% | -0.69% | +2.80% | 🟡 Neutral |
| COST | $947.74 | 49.0 | $953.09 | -0.6% | -1.37% | +2.20% | 🟡 Neutral |
| NKE | $40.76 | 46.0 | $41.49 | -1.8% | +0.07% | -3.44% | 🟡 Neutral |
| HD | $335.61 | 46.0 | $342.48 | -2.0% | -0.96% | +1.26% | 🟡 Neutral |
| XRT | $87.71 | 46.1 | $89.70 | -2.2% | -1.44% | -1.16% | 🟡 Neutral |
| DECK | $91.68 | 40.8 | $95.82 | -4.3% | -1.51% | -10.53% | 🟡 Neutral |
| AS | $32.63 | 39.8 | $34.77 | -6.1% | -0.73% | -5.09% | 🟢 Oversold |
| CROX | $122.11 | 38.6 | $131.71 | -7.3% | -7.31% | -10.35% | 🟢 Oversold |
| ONON | $30.02 | 32.8 | $34.64 | -13.3% | -6.86% | -18.09% | 🟢 Oversold |
| WMT | $103.70 | 29.6 | $112.21 | -7.6% | -10.03% | -5.15% | 🟢 Oversold |
| TJX | $140.53 | 25.4 | $154.72 | -9.2% | -7.61% | -9.57% | 🟢 Oversold |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI<25): None — TJX at 25.4 is just above that line.
Oversold (25-40): TJX (25.4), WMT (29.6), ONON (32.8), CROX (38.6), AS (39.8) — five names, up from two (AS, DECK) last scan.
Neutral/Strong (40+): The rest of the board, spanning DECK (40.8) to TGT (76.0, the board's sole overbought print).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | $103.70 | 29.6 | -5.15% | Earnings-driven washout; 12.5% below its 200-day but still up 97.52% over three years — long trend under test, not broken |
| TJX | $140.53 | 25.4 | -9.57% | Board's lowest RSI; below its 200-day but trailing year is roughly flat (+2.2%), so this reads as under test, not broken — cause unconfirmed |
| ONON | $30.02 | 32.8 | -18.09% | New to this board; 25.1% below its 200-day and down 32.66% over the past year |
| TGT | $165.44 | 76.0 | +19.95% | Sole overbought print, now 0.02% from its 52-week high |
| DECK, AS, CROX | see table | 38.6–40.8 | -5% to -10% | All three below or near their 200-day; watch alongside the broader washout |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔍 WATCH | WMT, TJX | Both freshly below their 200-day after this week, but with flat-to-positive trailing-year returns — under test, not broken; SMA200 levels ($118.52 / $155.23) decide it |
| ⚠️ AVOID | ONON | New to the board and genuinely weak — 25.1% below its 200-day, down 32.66% over the past year |
| ⚠️ AVOID | TGT | Sole overbought print, extending for a third straight scan and sitting at its 52-week high |
| ⚠️ AVOID | HD, LOW, MCD | Below their 200-day with negative trailing-year returns — structurally weak on both windows |
| 🔒 HOLD | SHOP, ANF, SBUX, YUM, COST | Steady to improving, no long-horizon flags |
| 🔍 WATCH | DECK, AS, CROX, NKE, XRT | Mixed, several below their 200-day; watch for whether the retail-wide pressure spreads |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| WMT's 200-day ($118.52) | Price sits 12.5% below it after this week's print — the level that separates "deep pullback" from "trend break" on a name still up 97.52% over three years |
| TJX's next print | Board's lowest RSI (25.4); confirm whether this is Walmart read-through or a separate driver |
| TGT's RSI | Extending for a third straight scan, now essentially at its 52-week high |
| ONON's follow-through | New to the board, already deep in oversold with genuine long-horizon damage |
| Whether the WMT/TJX washout spreads to HD, LOW, and the rest of the cohort | Both leaders reported inside the same week; watch for broader retail read-through |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/long-horizon): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-21 close — retail.
- Walmart's -9.15% earnings-print-day move: this week's earnings print (context provided for this scan; no separate news receipt captured this session).
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.