Retail Scan — September 11, 2026 Close

Scan

Retail Scan — September 11, 2026 Close

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 37 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-04-retail-scan.md

SHOP posted the board's worst week (-11.23%) with no catalyst on file, sending RSI from 52.0 to 39.3 and the 30-day change to -14.37% from +0.59%. TJX deepened into capitulation for a third straight scan (RSI 22.3→17.8, now the board's lowest print of this stretch), still with only a stale Jefferies downgrade on record. TGT dropped sharply out of its overbought-adjacent perch (RSI 63.2→47.9, week -5.24%) despite a strong Q2 print still on file from three weeks ago.

Data as-of 2026-09-11 close. All numbers from precomputed summaries/retail.json. Prior scan: 2026-09-04-retail-scan (2026-09-04, data as-of 2026-09-04 close) — the summary's own 7-day window runs 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-11, so the comparisons below line up exactly with that prior scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A broadly weaker board — SHOP cratered without an explanation on file, TJX extended its capitulation streak to three scans, and TGT and YUM both dropped sharply — while HD, LOW, and MCD continued grinding lower into deeper oversold.
Key insight TJX has now spent three consecutive scans deepening into capitulation-tier RSI (22.7→22.3→17.8) with nothing beyond a three-week-old analyst downgrade to explain it — the longest unresolved disconnect on this board.

What's Going On

SHOP had the sharpest move on the board this scan: RSI fell from 52.0 to 39.3, price from $145.09 to $128.79, and the week alone dropped 11.23% — flipping the 30-day change from +0.59% to -14.37%. Its news receipt was checked and returned only generic finance-portal listing pages (Yahoo Finance, CNBC stock quote pages dated Sept 9–11) with no substantive article behind the move — no cause is established here. SHOP remains 1.7% below its 200-day with a trailing year of -11.2% (alpha1y -27.42) — a trend now genuinely under test rather than the "pullback inside intact trend" framing of prior scans.

TJX deepened further into capitulation for a third straight scan: RSI fell from 22.3 to 17.8, price from $132.08 to $126.02, the week alone dropping 4.59% on top of two prior weeks of decline, and the 30-day change holding at -17.42% (essentially unchanged from -17.41%). The news receipt on file is unchanged from last scan (fetched 2026-08-28) — the Jefferies downgrade to Hold from Buy — now three weeks stale relative to this session. TJX is 18.3% below its 200-day with a trailing year that's turned negative (-10.52%, alpha1y -26.74) — the longest-running unresolved disconnect on this board, now at its lowest RSI print of the stretch.

TGT dropped sharply: RSI fell from 63.2 to 47.9, price from $164.44 to $155.83, and the week declined 5.24%. Its news receipt is stale (fetched 2026-08-25, before this week's window) and still shows the Aug 19-20 strong Q2 beat-and-raise — no fresh cause explains this week's drop. TGT remains 25.7% above its 200-day with an exceptionally strong trailing year (+70.27%, alpha1y +54.05) — still the board's cleanest long-horizon structure even after this week's pullback.

YUM also fell hard — RSI 48.2→34.2, price $150.71→$140.87, week -2.03%→-6.53% — dropping newly into oversold with its news receipt not checked this session for a fresh catalyst; no cause is established. HD and LOW both deepened further into oversold (HD RSI 37.8→32.3, LOW RSI 41.2→33.8), continuing the pattern of worsening 30-day windows flagged last scan, with both remaining below their 200-day and negative on the trailing year — the same structurally weak framing, now worse. MCD's RSI eased further to 31.2 from 34.3 (week -1.24%, calmer than last week's -3.51%) while staying 14.4% below its 200-day with a negative trailing year (-18.12%, alpha1y -34.34). ANF continued cooling from its earlier overbought spike — RSI 71.2→63.7, week +0.84%→-2.97% — still 47.2% above its 200-day with a strongly positive trailing year (+54.11%, alpha1y +37.89), an intact trend normalizing further rather than reversing. WMT stayed roughly flat (RSI 45.7→47.0, week +3.91%→+0.01%) while COST eased modestly (RSI 38.1→35.5, week -3.21%→-1.20%).

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-04 close → 2026-09-11 close)

  • SHOP posted the board's worst week with no catalyst on file: RSI 52.0→39.3, price $145.09→$128.79, 7D -5.11%→-11.23%, 30D +0.59%→-14.37%.
  • TJX deepened into capitulation for a third straight scan: RSI 22.3→17.8, price $132.08→$126.02, 7D -2.26%→-4.59%, 30D -17.41%→-17.42%.
  • TGT dropped sharply: RSI 63.2→47.9, price $164.44→$155.83, 7D +0.77%→-5.24%, 30D +11.33%→+1.19%.
  • YUM fell newly into oversold: RSI 48.2→34.2, price $150.71→$140.87, 7D -2.03%→-6.53%, 30D -1.09%→-6.30%.
  • HD deepened further into oversold: RSI 37.8→32.3, price $321.05→$308.74, 7D -2.77%→-3.83%, 30D -9.09%→-10.10%.
  • LOW deepened further into oversold: RSI 41.2→33.8, price $204.45→$196.82, 7D -1.74%→-3.73%, 30D -7.04%→-8.87%.
  • MCD's RSI eased further: RSI 34.3→31.2, price $255.69→$252.53, 7D -3.51%→-1.24%, 30D -6.68%→-8.40%.
  • ANF continued cooling: RSI 71.2→63.7, price $149.67→$145.23, 7D +0.84%→-2.97%, 30D +36.75%→+29.40%.
  • WMT held flat: RSI 45.7→47.0, price $107.14→$107.15, 7D +3.91%→+0.01%, 30D -4.63%→-7.64%.
  • AS, LULU, NKE, SBUX, CMG, COST, DPZ, DECK, CROX, XRT, ONON all traded within a narrower range or matched the consumer-scan moves above, no new sharp break.

How To Read The Board

Golden-cross names (SHOP, SBUX, CMG, TGT, CROX, ANF, XRT) mean the 50-day average sits above the 200-day. Death-cross names (HD, LOW, AS, LULU, NKE, MCD, COST, WMT, TJX, DPZ, YUM, DECK, ONON) should have any bounce read as counter-trend until the cross itself flips — SHOP's crash and TJX's continuing capitulation both happened inside the golden-cross and death-cross groups respectively, a reminder the cross label alone doesn't predict which names break. On the long-horizon test: SBUX, TGT, CROX, and ANF all sit above their 200-day with strongly positive trailing-year returns — clean, intact trends even where this week was rough (TGT). SHOP is newly the mixed case — below its 200-day (-1.7%) but still holding a less-negative trailing year (-11.2%) than the structurally weak group, meaning its long trend is now genuinely being tested rather than clearly intact. HD, LOW, MCD, DECK, AS, NKE, ONON, and now YUM sit weak on both windows at once — the genuinely damaged group, largely unchanged in composition but deeper across the board. TJX remains the longest-running disconnect: three scans of deepening capitulation against a single three-week-old downgrade.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
ANF $145.23 63.7 $130.23 +11.5% -2.97% +29.40% 🟠 Overbought
TGT $155.83 47.9 $160.77 -3.1% -5.24% +1.19% 🟡 Neutral
WMT $107.15 47.0 $107.29 -0.1% +0.01% -7.64% 🟡 Neutral
XRT $84.79 41.0 $86.82 -2.3% -3.20% -4.49% 🟢 Oversold
SHOP $128.79 39.3 $144.50 -10.9% -11.23% -14.37% 🟢 Oversold
COST $904.77 35.5 $937.76 -3.5% -1.20% -4.72% 🟢 Oversold
CROX $112.48 36.3 $120.47 -6.6% -4.30% -13.88% 🟢 Oversold
AS $28.07 33.1 $30.61 -8.3% -4.94% -15.02% 🟢 Oversold
LOW $196.82 33.8 $208.19 -5.5% -3.73% -8.87% 🟢 Oversold
MCD $252.53 31.2 $263.06 -4.0% -1.24% -8.40% 🟢 Oversold
LULU $98.97 33.9 $114.16 -13.3% -1.63% -18.12% 🟢 Oversold
NKE $36.80 34.2 $39.01 -5.7% -4.17% -9.16% 🟢 Oversold
YUM $140.87 34.2 $150.06 -6.1% -6.53% -6.30% 🟢 Oversold
DECK $81.27 33.6 $86.95 -6.5% -5.29% -10.89% 🟢 Oversold
HD $308.74 32.3 $327.07 -5.6% -3.83% -10.10% 🟢 Oversold
ONON $27.41 32.3 $28.99 -5.5% -2.07% -11.61% 🟢 Oversold
SBUX $98.74 31.8 $105.20 -6.1% -5.48% -8.99% 🟢 Oversold
DPZ $311.60 34.8 $337.96 -7.8% -8.64% -11.91% 🟢 Oversold
CMG $36.20 51.1 $36.47 -0.7% -2.06% +10.91% 🟡 Neutral
TJX $126.02 17.8 $136.81 -7.9% -4.59% -17.42% 🟢 Oversold

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI<25): TJX (17.8) — deepening further for a third straight scan, now the board's lowest print of this stretch.

Oversold (25-40): XRT (41.0 borderline), SHOP (39.3), COST (35.5), CROX (36.3), AS (33.1), LOW (33.8), MCD (31.2), LULU (33.9), NKE (34.2), YUM (34.2), DECK (33.6), HD (32.3), ONON (32.3), SBUX (31.8), DPZ (34.8) — a much broader oversold group than last scan's eight; SBUX, DPZ, YUM, and SHOP are the new arrivals.

Neutral/Strong (40+): CMG (51.1), WMT (47.0), TGT (47.9), ANF (63.7, the board's sole overbought print).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
SHOP $128.79 39.3 -14.37% Board's worst week with no catalyst on file (news receipt returned only generic portal pages); newly below its 200-day — trend now genuinely under test
TJX $126.02 17.8 -17.42% Deepening capitulation for a third straight scan; only a stale Jefferies downgrade on file; trailing year has turned negative
TGT $155.83 47.9 +1.19% Sharp week despite no fresh news; still 25.7% above its 200-day with a +70.27% trailing year — the board's cleanest structure
HD, LOW, MCD, YUM see table 31.2–34.2 -6.30% to -10.10% Below the 200-day average with a negative trailing one-year return — structurally weak on both windows, YUM newly joining
ANF $145.23 63.7 +29.40% Continued cooling from an earlier overbought spike; still 47.2% above its 200-day with a +54.11% trailing year — an intact trend normalizing

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH SHOP Board's worst week with no confirmed catalyst; watch whether the 200-day break holds or reverses
🔍 WATCH TJX Third straight scan deepening into capitulation on a three-week-old downgrade; the longest unresolved disconnect on this board
🔒 HOLD TGT, CMG, WMT, XRT Golden- or near-golden-crossed with strong or neutral long-horizon reads; this week's softness reads as pullback
⚠️ AVOID HD, LOW, MCD, NKE, AS, DECK, ONON, YUM Below the 200-day average with a negative trailing one-year return — structurally weak on both windows
🔒 HOLD ANF Intact, strongly-trending name normalizing from overbought

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
SHOP's 200-day level Board's worst week this scan with nothing on file to explain it — confirm whether this is the start of a genuine break
TJX's next session Three straight scans of deepening capitulation; still nothing beyond a stale downgrade on record
TGT's follow-through Sharp week despite a strong long-horizon read; confirm whether the pullback holds at its still-strong 200-day cushion
Whether HD, LOW, MCD, and YUM's declines continue All deepened this scan with no confirmed cause on file
ANF's continued cooling Still well above its 200-day but easing for a second straight scan from an earlier overbought spike

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/long-horizon): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-11 close — retail.
  • SHOP news receipt checked (latest, fetched 2026-09-11, fresh fetch but only generic finance-portal listing pages, no substantive article): no cause claimed for this week's -11.23% decline.
  • TJX news receipt checked (latest, fetched 2026-08-28, three weeks stale relative to this session): still the Jefferies downgrade to Hold from Buy dated 2026-08-28; no fresher catalyst on file.
  • TGT news receipt checked (latest, fetched 2026-08-25, before this week's window): still the Aug 19-20 Q2 beat-and-raise story; no cause claimed for this week's drop.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.