Retail Scan — October 9, 2026 Close
Retail Scan — October 9, 2026 Close
Retail rallied broadly — 18 of 22 rose — with On (+13.74%) and Shopify (+12.85%) pushed above RSI 70, Walmart (+6.8%) and Yum (+6.39%) bouncing, and last week's washouts (Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald's, Nike) lifted back above RSI 30 without repairing their long trends. Starbucks (RSI 28.8) is the one washout left, and the same five names as a week ago close above their 200-day averages.
Data as of the 2026-10-09 close (settled, Friday). The previous edition closed October 2; the seven-day column runs from that close to this one, so it is the change since then.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Broad bounce inside damaged trends: 18 up, 4 down, but only 5 of 22 above their 200-day averages. Two names extended (ONON, SHOP), one washout (SBUX). |
| Leaders | ONON (13.74%), SHOP (12.85%), WMT (6.8%) |
| Laggards | SBUX (-4.18%), CROX (-2.63%), CMG (-2.38%) |
| Caveat | Tape from the desk's pre-computed summaries, 2026-10-09 close. News for most names was last pulled before this week's moves and no October 9 captures are on file yet, so most causes read "not on file", which is not the same as no cause. |
What's Going On
On and Shopify led in different shapes. On rose 13.74% to $35.09 (RSI 76.8, 30-day +30.74%) but closed 6.8% under its 200-day on a -18.96% year: an extended bounce inside a broken trend. Shopify rose 12.85% to $170.85 (RSI 72.8), 31.9% above its 200-day and -6.22% from its high, on a modest +4.26% year; the October 8 market brief had already flagged it as extended. Causes not on file: On's news was last pulled September 11. Shopify's October 8 pull holds quote pages listing target raises (JPMorgan to $200 from $185, Seaport to $180 from $175) without dates, plus the company's notice that it is scheduled to report third-quarter results before the open on November 3; Friday's +3.82% came after that pull.
The big-box names bounced toward their 200-day lines. Walmart rose 6.8% to $111.35 (RSI 60.9) and Costco 2.85% to $946.92 (RSI 62.4). Both have positive trailing years (+9.41% and +0.43%) and both still close under their 200-day averages, Walmart by 5.8% ($118.17) and Costco by 1.7% ($963.47). CNBC's October 8 Investing Club piece credits Costco's September sales report with showing resilience; Walmart's October 7 news pull holds quote pages only, so its cause is not on file. TJX (+4.58% on the week) and Yum (+6.39% on the week) share the shape: under their 200-days on flat-to-positive years. Yum's news was last pulled July 17, so its cause is not on file.
Last week's washouts lifted, and nothing more. Home Depot (+2.79%, RSI 41.3) and Lowe's (+2.88%, RSI 41.9) remain 13.8% and 19.2% under their 200-day averages on years of -23.02% and -20.74%. McDonald's rose 1.44% on the week although Barchart flagged its lowest close in more than four years on October 7 (on X); at RSI 36.7 and 18.2% under its 200-day it is a broken trend. Starbucks fell 4.18% to RSI 28.8 in the week the Financial Times reported it had explored a bid for Chipotle (via Bloomberg, October 8); Chipotle, which Bloomberg said jumped on the report, ended the week -2.38%. Friday's declines in both have no cause on file.
The five intact trends are Abercrombie (1Y +85.39%, 39.8% above its 200-day, RSI 60.2), Target (+72.44%, 18% above), Coca-Cola Consolidated (+59.29%, 7.3% above), Crocs (+43.03%, 7.3% above) and Shopify. Target fell 1.51% on the week and closed under its 50-day ($156.78); its October 8 news pull carries MarketBeat's summary of a Jefferies view that its price cuts are working and a release on lower prices across nearly 2,000 products, and the stock still fell on the week.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
Breadth widened: 18 up and 4 down, against 10 up and 12 down on October 2. The names above their 200-day averages are the same five (SHOP, TGT, CROX, ANF, COKE). The RSI-under-30 list went from four names (HD, LOW, NKE, MCD) to one (SBUX), and two names now sit at RSI 70 or above (ONON, SHOP). Leaders went from Shopify, Chipotle and Casey's to On, Shopify and Walmart; Chipotle moved to the laggards.
How To Read The Board
This is a price-and-momentum screen built from the desk's pre-computed summaries: it shows where each name sits on the tape, not why it moved. RSI under 30 is a washout and 70 or above is extended; neither is a recommendation on its own. The structure label carries the long view, and it outranks the week:
- Trend intact: above the 200-day average with a positive trailing year. A bad week here is a pullback.
- Repair: above the 200-day but still down on the year. Price has recovered; the trend has not yet proved itself.
- Trend under test: below the 200-day with a positive year. The 200-day is the line to retake.
- Trend broken: below the 200-day and down on the year.
A raw screen reading becomes a setup only when an intact trend pulls back and holds a level, then turns up. No insider, fundamentals or options data is included.
Price Table
As of 2026-10-09. Price and SMA20 in dollars; RSI is a 14-day reading; all other columns in percent.
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D | 30D | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONON | 35.09 | 76.8 | 30.04 | 16.8 | 13.74 | 30.74 | -18.96 | -6.8 | 🟠 Extended bounce, trend broken |
| SHOP | 170.85 | 72.8 | 146.66 | 16.5 | 12.85 | 34.75 | 4.26 | 31.9 | 🟠 Extended, trend intact |
| WMT | 111.35 | 60.9 | 107.61 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 5.22 | 9.41 | -5.8 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| YUM | 144.82 | 56.6 | 139.23 | 4 | 6.39 | -0.23 | 1.49 | -5.8 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| ANF | 142.58 | 60.2 | 137.31 | 3.8 | 4.91 | -6.25 | 85.39 | 39.8 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| DECK | 82.89 | 53.2 | 79.54 | 4.2 | 4.76 | 3.32 | -16.15 | -17.7 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| CASY | 646.27 | 48.7 | 608.96 | 6.1 | 4.62 | 2.74 | 17.03 | -12 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| TJX | 138.76 | 61.6 | 131.63 | 5.4 | 4.58 | 10.02 | 0.14 | -8.8 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| DPZ | 309.36 | 50.5 | 300.5 | 2.9 | 3.94 | -3.76 | -23.68 | -11.8 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| AS | 28.14 | 49.6 | 27.26 | 3.2 | 3.57 | 1.33 | -13.26 | -18.1 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| LOW | 186 | 41.9 | 188.59 | -1.4 | 2.88 | -6.34 | -20.74 | -19.2 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| COST | 946.92 | 62.4 | 915.74 | 3.4 | 2.85 | 4.91 | 0.43 | -1.7 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| HD | 290.74 | 41.3 | 293.68 | -1 | 2.79 | -6.35 | -23.02 | -13.8 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| NKE | 34.71 | 37.7 | 35.5 | -2.2 | 2.48 | -7.07 | -49 | -27.7 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| COKE | 196.24 | 55.6 | 192.76 | 1.8 | 2.19 | 3.82 | 59.29 | 7.3 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| XRT | 84.09 | 51.5 | 82.92 | 1.4 | 1.77 | -0.25 | 0.66 | -1.8 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| MCD | 235.23 | 36.7 | 239.82 | -1.9 | 1.44 | -7.2 | -19.94 | -18.2 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| LULU | 94.5 | 38.1 | 97.61 | -3.2 | 0.04 | -5.23 | -45.53 | -33.5 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| TGT | 153.64 | 45.4 | 156.16 | -1.6 | -1.51 | -2.46 | 72.44 | 18 | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact |
| CMG | 31.59 | 41.2 | 32.57 | -3 | -2.38 | -12.32 | -22.74 | -9 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| CROX | 114.98 | 41.9 | 119.56 | -3.8 | -2.63 | 3.5 | 43.03 | 7.3 | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact |
| SBUX | 90.75 | 28.8 | 95.02 | -4.5 | -4.18 | -9.29 | 13.75 | -8.3 | 🟡 Washout, trend under test |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI under 25)
No names in this tier.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
| Stock | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | 28.8 | 13.75 | -8.3 | Under test: below 200-day, up on the year |
| MCD | 36.7 | -19.94 | -18.2 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
| NKE | 37.7 | -49 | -27.7 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
| LULU | 38.1 | -45.53 | -33.5 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)
| Stock | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | 41.2 | -22.74 | -9 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
| HD | 41.3 | -23.02 | -13.8 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
| LOW | 41.9 | -20.74 | -19.2 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
| CROX | 41.9 | 43.03 | 7.3 | Trend intact |
| TGT | 45.4 | 72.44 | 18 | Trend intact |
| CASY | 48.7 | 17.03 | -12 | Under test: below 200-day, up on the year |
| AS | 49.6 | -13.26 | -18.1 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
| DPZ | 50.5 | -23.68 | -11.8 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
| XRT | 51.5 | 0.66 | -1.8 | Under test: below 200-day, up on the year |
| DECK | 53.2 | -16.15 | -17.7 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
| COKE | 55.6 | 59.29 | 7.3 | Trend intact |
| YUM | 56.6 | 1.49 | -5.8 | Under test: below 200-day, up on the year |
| ANF | 60.2 | 85.39 | 39.8 | Trend intact |
| WMT | 60.9 | 9.41 | -5.8 | Under test: below 200-day, up on the year |
| TJX | 61.6 | 0.14 | -8.8 | Under test: below 200-day, up on the year |
| COST | 62.4 | 0.43 | -1.7 | Under test: below 200-day, up on the year |
| SHOP | 72.8 | 4.26 | 31.9 | Trend intact |
| ONON | 76.8 | -18.96 | -6.8 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
Entry Zones
Levels are the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages from the summaries, in dollars. Each row is a condition, not an order.
| Stock | Entry zone ($) | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| ONON | None | Below the 200-day (37.64) on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
| SHOP | 144.82–146.66 | Extended; the flag is a pullback toward the 20-day that holds the 50-day, then a turn back up. |
| WMT | Above 118.17 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| YUM | Above 153.66 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| ANF | 129.19–137.31 | Trend intact; entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| DECK | None | Below the 200-day (100.78) on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
| CASY | Above 734.21 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| TJX | Above 152.11 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| DPZ | None | Below the 200-day (350.58) on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
| AS | None | Below the 200-day (34.36) on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
| LOW | None | Below the 200-day (230.08) on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
| COST | Above 963.47 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| HD | None | Below the 200-day (337.48) on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
| NKE | None | Below the 200-day (48.01) on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
| COKE | 191–192.76 | Trend intact; entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| XRT | Above 85.65 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| MCD | None | Below the 200-day (287.73) on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
| LULU | None | Below the 200-day (142.03) on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
| TGT | 130.2–156.78 | Under the 50-day inside an intact trend; a close back above the 50-day is the trigger, the 200-day the floor. |
| CMG | None | Below the 200-day (34.73) on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
| CROX | 107.15–122.91 | Under the 50-day inside an intact trend; a close back above the 50-day is the trigger, the 200-day the floor. |
| SBUX | Above 98.92 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ONON | 🟠 Extended bounce, trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid (extended bounce) | Extended bounce in a broken trend. News last pulled Sept 11; cause not on file. |
| SHOP | 🟠 Extended, trend intact | ⚠️ Don't chase | Extended in an intact trend; scheduled to report Nov 3 before the open (company notice). Week's cause not on file. |
| WMT | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | Bounce toward the 200-day on a positive year; Oct 7 news pull holds quote pages only. |
| YUM | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | Bounce under the 200-day; news last pulled July 17, cause not on file. |
| ANF | 🟢 Trend intact | 🔒 Hold | Strongest trailing year on the board. |
| DECK | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Below the 200-day on a down year. |
| CASY | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | Positive year, but closed below the 200-day. |
| TJX | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | Positive year, but under the 200-day; news last pulled Sept 30. |
| DPZ | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Below the 200-day on a down year. |
| AS | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Below the 200-day on a down year. |
| LOW | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Out of the washout zone; still broken. |
| COST | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | Just under the 200-day; CNBC (Oct 8) on resilient September sales. |
| HD | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Out of the washout zone; still broken. |
| NKE | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Out of the washout zone; still broken after the Oct 1 print. |
| COKE | 🟢 Trend intact | 🔒 Hold | Above the 200-day on a positive year. |
| XRT | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | Positive year, but closed below the 200-day. |
| MCD | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Barchart on X (Oct 7): lowest close in more than four years. Broken. |
| LULU | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Below the 200-day on a down year. |
| TGT | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact | 🔍 Watch (50-day reclaim) | Intact trend under its 50-day; MarketBeat (Oct 8) summarizes Jefferies's view that price cuts are working. |
| CMG | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Bloomberg (Oct 8): jumped on the FT report; gain gone by Friday's close. |
| CROX | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact | 🔍 Watch (50-day reclaim) | Intact trend, closed under its 50-day. |
| SBUX | 🟡 Washout, trend under test | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | Only washout. Week of the FT takeover-exploration report for Chipotle; Friday's drop: cause not on file. |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Trigger | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| SHOP | A pullback toward the 20-day (146.66) that holds | Extended in an intact trend; the report is scheduled for November 3. |
| ONON | Two closes above the 200-day (37.64) | Would turn an extended bounce into a repair; until then it is a broken trend. |
| WMT, COST | Two closes above the 200-day (WMT 118.17, COST 963.47) | Both have positive years; a reclaim restores the trend. |
| HD, LOW, MCD | Close above the 20-day (HD 293.68, LOW 188.59, MCD 239.82) | The first step of a base after the washout; the 200-day sits far above. |
| SBUX | Close back above the 20-day (95.02) | The only washout; Starbucks says fourth-quarter results come later this month. |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, averages, returns, long-horizon fields, Friday volume): pre-computed summary, 2026-10-09 close — retail.
- Shopify third-quarter report date — company notice (https://www.shopify.com/news/shopify-q3-2026-financial-advisory); target raises listed on Stock Analysis's quote page (https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/shop/); both from the Shopify news pull of 2026-10-08.
- Costco — CNBC Investing Club, October 8 (https://www.cnbc.com/investingclub/2026/10/08/costco-sales-resilience-is-giving-cramer-a-reason-to-feel-better-about-the-stock.html), capture 2026-10-08-cnbc-costco-s-sales-resilience-is-giving-cramer-a-reason-to-feel--108377143.
- McDonald's four-year closing low — Barchart on X, October 7 (https://x.com/Barchart/status/2107936930860048474), capture 2026-10-07-Barchart-breaking-mcdonald-s-mcd-falls-to-lowest-closing--60048474.
- Target — MarketBeat news page (https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/TGT/news/), from the Target news pull of 2026-10-08.
- Shopify flagged extended — October 8 market brief, 2026-10-08-market-brief.
- Starbucks–Chipotle takeover report — Bloomberg, "Chipotle Jumps on Report Starbucks Has Explored Takeover" (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-10-08/chipotle-jumps-on-report-starbucks-has-explored-takeover-video), capture 2026-10-08-bloomberg-chipotle-jumps-on-report-starbucks-has-explored-takeover-tmltyir24uai00; CNBC, "Why a Starbucks takeover of Chipotle would — and wouldn't — make sense" (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/starbucks-chipotle-acquisition.html); MarketWatch analyst round-up (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feel-like-a-pumpkin-spice-burrito-analysts-try-to-wrap-their-heads-around-a-possible-starbucks-chipotle-tie-up-5b8519fd), capture 2026-10-08-marketwatch-feel-like-a-pumpkin-spice-burrito-analysts-try-to-wrap-their--mktw-0005276930; Semafor, October 6 (https://www.semafor.com/article/10/06/2026/a-starbucks-chipotle-tie-up-might-be-crazy-enough-to-work), capture 2026-10-06-semafor-a-starbucks-chipotle-tie-up-might-be-crazy-enough-to-work-y-enough-to-work; Starbucks statement as posted by Jim Cramer on X (https://x.com/jimcramer/status/2108272214705353186), capture 2026-10-08-jimcramer-here-s-starbucks-comment-on-chipotle-as-a-matter-05353186.
- RBC Hold on Starbucks — Markets Insider, October 7 (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/starbucks-sbux-receives-a-hold-from-rbc-capital-1036603987), from the Starbucks news pull of 2026-10-07.
- News check (stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json
, pull dates): HD 2026-10-03; LOW 2026-10-03; SHOP 2026-10-08; AS 2026-09-18; LULU 2026-10-03; NKE 2026-10-06; SBUX 2026-10-07; MCD 2026-10-03; CMG 2026-07-31; COST 2026-10-05; WMT 2026-10-07; TGT 2026-10-08; TJX 2026-09-30; DPZ 2026-09-19; YUM 2026-07-17; DECK 2026-07-25; CROX 2026-10-03; ANF 2026-09-30; XRT 2026-10-01; ONON 2026-09-11; CASY 2026-09-22; COKE 2026-07-07. Event records (research/stock-events/`) checked for October 3–9: the only entries are earnings or dividend records for NEOG, PENG, APLD, 6506.T, AEHR, ATZ.TO, DAL, NRIX, PEP and ORCL, none on this board. Article, X and filing captures for October 3–8 (articles, tweets, filings) were searched by company name; no October 9 captures were on file at writing. A news pull dated before a move does not cover it, and a pull with no item on the move is not proof of no cause.
Related
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