Retail Scan — October 16, 2026 Close
Retail Scan — October 16, 2026 Close
Retail rose for a second week — 18 of 22 up again — with Abercrombie (+7.49%), Starbucks (+7.46%) and Coca-Cola Consolidated (+7.18%) leading, Walmart (+6.7%) and Costco (+4.46%) lifted back above their 200-day averages, and Walmart, Costco and TJX now at RSI 73.0, 72.5 and 74.8. Eight of 22 close above their 200-day (five a week ago), but three of those eight have cushions under 2.5%. No name is under RSI 30; Chipotle (-5.38%, RSI 34.3) is the weakest.
Data as of the 2026-10-16 close (settled, Friday). The previous edition closed October 9; the seven-day column runs from that close to this one, so it is the change since then.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Strong week, stretching: 18 up and 4 down on the week, 12 up and 10 down on Friday; 8 of 22 above their 200-day averages. Three names at RSI 70 or above (TJX, WMT, COST), two just under (ONON, ANF). |
| Leaders | ANF (7.49%), SBUX (7.46%), COKE (7.18%) |
| Laggards | CMG (-5.38%), ONON (-0.97%), SHOP (-0.78%) |
| Caveat | Tape from pre-computed price summaries, 2026-10-16 close. News for most names was last pulled before Friday's session, so most causes read "not on file", which is not the same as no cause. |
What's Going On
The big-box and defensive names did the work. Walmart rose 6.7% to $118.81 (RSI 73.0) and now sits 0.5% above its 200-day ($118.27), against $111.35, RSI 60.9 and 5.8% under it on October 9. Costco rose 4.46% to $989.11 (RSI 72.5), 2.4% above its 200-day ($966.12) after closing 1.7% under it a week ago. TJX gained 6.18% (RSI 74.8, 30-day +19.94%) and is still 2.9% under its 200-day ($151.79) on a +3.35% year. XRT rose 3.48% to $87.02 (RSI 64.6), 1.6% above its 200-day, which moves the fund from under test to intact. The Walmart and Costco cushions are thin and both are extended.
Last week's washouts kept climbing: Home Depot +6.5% (RSI 60.0, from 41.3), Lowe's +6.12% (58.4, from 41.9) and McDonald's +3.29% (52.0, from 36.7). All three closed above their 20-day averages, the first step the October 9 scan named, but remain 7.9%, 13.7% and 15% under their 200-days on years of -20.07%, -18.81% and -20.42%: bounces inside broken trends. Starbucks rose 7.46% to $97.52 (RSI 54.5, from 28.8), 1.7% under its 200-day on a +15.63% year. Bloomberg reported on October 14 that Starbucks said it is not buying Chipotle; Chipotle fell 5.38% to $29.89 (RSI 34.3). No receipt ties either stock's moves to the statement.
Shopify slipped 0.78% on the week but fell 4.84% on Friday to $169.52 (RSI 61.0, from 72.8), ending its extended reading; it is 30.7% above its 200-day, 30-day +30.44%, 6.95% under its high, and reports November 3 before the open. On (RSI 69.9, from 76.8) fell 0.97% and is still a bounce near extended in a broken trend, 6.9% under its 200-day on a -17.22% year. Abercrombie (1Y +121.89%, 49.5% above its 200-day, 2.21% from its high, RSI 69.6) and Coca-Cola Consolidated (+61.06%, 14.3% above, 4.24% from its high) are the strongest intact trends. Target was flat (+0.4%): intact (1Y +71.27%, 17.2% above its 200-day) but under its 20- and 50-day. Domino's (-0.23%) reported on October 13 and stays broken.
Causes not on file for the week's moves: the Walmart (October 15) and Costco (October 14) news pulls hold quote and analysis pages, Walmart's newest item dated September 22 and Costco's October 13, and no dated item explains the week; the stock-event records for October 13-16 carry only Domino's on this board. Context only: the October 15 market brief had its retail lane up 20 of 22 on Thursday (+2.9% median), the October 16 market conditions snapshot lists retail among the inflows (30-day relative strength +5.07), and it shows equal-weight RSP +0.49% on the week against QQQ -5.52%.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
Eighteen up and four down both weeks. Names above their 200-day went from five (Shopify, Target, Crocs, Abercrombie, Coca-Cola Consolidated) to eight, adding Walmart, Costco and XRT. The names at RSI 70 or above changed from On and Shopify to TJX, Walmart and Costco. The washout list went from one (Starbucks, 28.8) to none; the RSI 25-40 tier is Chipotle alone. Leaders rotated from On, Shopify and Walmart to Abercrombie, Starbucks and Coca-Cola Consolidated; Starbucks went from laggard to leader, and Chipotle stayed a laggard.
How To Read The Board
This is a price-and-momentum screen built from pre-computed price summaries: it shows where each name sits on the tape, not why it moved. RSI under 30 is a washout and 70 or above is extended; neither is a recommendation on its own. The structure label carries the long view and outranks the week: trend intact is above the 200-day average with a positive trailing year (a bad week here is a pullback); repair is above the 200-day but down on the year; trend under test is below the 200-day with a positive year (the 200-day is the line to retake); trend broken is below the 200-day and down on the year. A raw reading becomes a setup only when an intact trend pulls back, holds a level and turns up. No insider, fundamentals or options data is included.
Price Table
As of 2026-10-16. Price and SMA20 in dollars; RSI is a 14-day reading; all other columns in percent.
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D | 30D | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANF | 153.26 | 69.6 | 140.4 | 9.2 | 7.49 | 9.56 | 121.89 | 49.5 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| SBUX | 97.52 | 54.5 | 94.35 | 3.4 | 7.46 | 0.18 | 15.63 | -1.7 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| COKE | 210.33 | 67.6 | 193.62 | 8.6 | 7.18 | 5.87 | 61.06 | 14.3 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| CROX | 123.14 | 55.6 | 120.37 | 2.3 | 7.1 | 6.71 | 48.09 | 14.1 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| NKE | 37.13 | 58 | 35.46 | 4.7 | 6.97 | 3.77 | -44.45 | -21.7 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| WMT | 118.81 | 73 | 109.61 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 10.52 | 11.59 | 0.5 | 🟠 Extended, trend intact |
| AS | 30.02 | 61.5 | 27.86 | 7.7 | 6.68 | 10.65 | -2.02 | -12.1 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| CASY | 689.22 | 63.5 | 624.02 | 10.4 | 6.65 | 17.02 | 22.78 | -6.4 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| HD | 309.63 | 60 | 292.51 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 2.37 | -20.07 | -7.9 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| TJX | 147.33 | 74.8 | 136.18 | 8.2 | 6.18 | 19.94 | 3.35 | -2.9 | 🟠 Extended, trend under test |
| LOW | 197.38 | 58.4 | 187.69 | 5.2 | 6.12 | 1.69 | -18.81 | -13.7 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| COST | 989.11 | 72.5 | 933.74 | 5.9 | 4.46 | 10.67 | 6.86 | 2.4 | 🟠 Extended, trend intact |
| YUM | 150.51 | 65.4 | 141.38 | 6.5 | 3.93 | 9.1 | 4.97 | -2 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| XRT | 87.02 | 64.6 | 83.51 | 4.2 | 3.48 | 5.19 | 3.64 | 1.6 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| DECK | 85.71 | 58.7 | 81 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 9.94 | -13.48 | -14.6 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| MCD | 242.97 | 52 | 236.8 | 2.6 | 3.29 | -2.25 | -20.42 | -15 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| LULU | 97.1 | 46 | 96.97 | 0.1 | 2.75 | 1.17 | -41.02 | -30.2 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| TGT | 154.26 | 47.6 | 155.46 | -0.8 | 0.4 | -0.27 | 71.27 | 17.2 | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact |
| DPZ | 308.64 | 51.3 | 299.84 | 2.9 | -0.23 | 2.44 | -25.98 | -11.2 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| SHOP | 169.52 | 61 | 157.92 | 7.3 | -0.78 | 30.44 | 8.27 | 30.7 | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact |
| ONON | 34.75 | 69.9 | 32.06 | 8.4 | -0.97 | 27.99 | -17.22 | -6.9 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| CMG | 29.89 | 34.3 | 31.54 | -5.2 | -5.38 | -11.25 | -28.42 | -13.5 | 🔴 Trend broken |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI under 25)
No names in this tier.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
| Stock | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | 34.3 | -28.42 | -13.5 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)
21 names; RSI in parentheses, full rows in the price table.
- Trend intact: TGT (47.6), CROX (55.6), SHOP (61), XRT (64.6), COKE (67.6), ANF (69.6), COST (72.5), WMT (73)
- Under test (below 200-day, up on the year): SBUX (54.5), CASY (63.5), YUM (65.4), TJX (74.8)
- Broken (below 200-day, down on the year): LULU (46), DPZ (51.3), MCD (52), NKE (58), LOW (58.4), DECK (58.7), HD (60), AS (61.5), ONON (69.9)
Entry Zones
Levels are the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages from the summaries, in dollars. Each row is a condition, not an order.
| Stock | Entry zone ($) | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| ANF | 133.45–140.4 | Trend intact; entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| SBUX | Above 99.16 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| COKE | 192.68–193.62 | Trend intact; entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| CROX | 120.37–121.4 | Trend intact; entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| WMT | 108.91–109.61 | Extended; the flag is a pullback toward the 20-day that holds the 50-day, then a turn back up. |
| CASY | Above 736.57 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| TJX | Above 151.79 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| COST | 933.74–933.79 | Extended; the flag is a pullback toward the 20-day that holds the 50-day, then a turn back up. |
| YUM | Above 153.54 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| XRT | 83.51–85.44 | Trend intact; entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| TGT | 131.63–157.48 | Under the 50-day inside an intact trend; a close back above the 50-day is the trigger, the 200-day the floor. |
| SHOP | 149.35–157.92 | Trend intact; entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| HD, LOW, AS, LULU, NKE, MCD, CMG, DPZ, DECK, ONON | None | Below the 200-day on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANF, COKE | 🟢 Trend intact | 🔒 Hold | Strongest years on the board; both within 4.24% of their highs. Abercrombie is a point under RSI 70. |
| CROX | 🟢 Trend intact | 🔒 Hold | Above its 200-day and 50-day on a +48.09% year; reports October 29 before the open. |
| SHOP | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact | 🔍 Watch (50-day hold) | -4.84% Friday; still above its 20- and 50-day. Reports November 3. |
| TGT | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact | 🔍 Watch (50-day reclaim) | Intact trend under its 20- and 50-day. |
| XRT | 🟢 Trend intact | 🔍 Watch (200-day hold) | Fund. Only 1.6% above its 200-day. |
| WMT, COST | 🟠 Extended, trend intact | ⚠️ Don't chase | RSI 73.0 and 72.5 on cushions of 0.5% and 2.4% over the 200-day. |
| TJX | 🟠 Extended, trend under test | ⚠️ Don't chase | RSI 74.8; still 2.9% under its 200-day. |
| SBUX, YUM, CASY | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | Positive years, closed under the 200-day; Starbucks is estimated to report October 29. |
| HD, LOW, MCD | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Bounced above the 20-day; 7.9% to 15% under the 200-day on down years. |
| ONON | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid (extended bounce) | RSI 69.9 in a broken trend. |
| CMG | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | The only RSI under 40; estimated report October 28. |
| DECK, AS, NKE, LULU, DPZ | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Below the 200-day on down years; Deckers reports October 22. |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Trigger | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| WMT, COST | Holds the 200-day (WMT 118.27, COST 966.12) | Cushions of 0.5% and 2.4% on RSI above 70; a close under puts both back in trends under test. |
| TJX, WMT, COST | RSI back under 70 with price above the 20-day (TJX 136.18, WMT 109.61, COST 933.74) | An extended reading is where the flag comes from, not the entry. |
| HD, LOW, MCD | Close above the 50-day (HD 313.18, LOW 199.78, MCD 252.46) | The next step after the 20-day; the 200-day sits far above. |
| SBUX | Two closes above the 200-day (99.16) | Turns a trend under test back to intact ahead of the estimated October 29 report. |
| SHOP | Holds the 50-day (149.35) | Decides whether Friday's drop is a flag. |
| DECK, COKE, CMG, CROX | Reports: Deckers October 22, Coca-Cola Consolidated October 28, Chipotle October 28 (estimated), Crocs October 29 | The next company prints on the board. |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, averages, returns, long-horizon fields): pre-computed summary, 2026-10-16 close — retail.
- Prior-week prices, RSI, leaders and structure counts — the October 9 retail scan, 2026-10-09-retail-scan.
- Starbucks statement — Bloomberg, "Starbucks Says It's Not Buying Chipotle" (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-10-14/starbucks-says-it-s-not-buying-chipotle-video), capture 2026-10-14-bloomberg-starbucks-says-it-s-not-buying-chipotle-tmwvsqr24uaf00.
- Retail lane on Thursday — October 15 market brief, 2026-10-15-market-brief; retail relative strength and equal-weight versus Nasdaq-100 fund returns — October 16 market conditions snapshot, 2026-10-16-market-conditions. Report dates from the stock-event records for DECK (2026-10-22), COKE and CMG (2026-10-28), CROX and SBUX (2026-10-29) and SHOP (2026-11-03, company notice).
- News check (stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json
, pull dates): HD 2026-10-03; LOW 2026-10-03; SHOP 2026-10-15; AS 2026-09-18; LULU 2026-10-16 (UTC, before Friday); NKE 2026-10-06; SBUX 2026-10-09; MCD 2026-10-03; CMG 2026-07-31; COST 2026-10-14; WMT 2026-10-15; TGT 2026-10-08; TJX 2026-10-13; DPZ 2026-10-15; YUM 2026-07-17; DECK 2026-07-25; CROX 2026-10-03; ANF 2026-09-30; XRT 2026-10-13; ONON 2026-10-09; CASY 2026-09-22; COKE 2026-10-13. Event records (research/stock-events/`) checked for October 13-16: the only entry on this board is the Domino's earnings record; the rest are earnings records for JPM, GS, C, WFC, JNJ, UNH, ABT, ASML, BAC, MS, TSM, IBKR and others. Article, X and filing captures for October 13-16 (articles, tweets, filings) were searched by company name; the only hit on this board is the Starbucks statement. A news pull dated before a move does not cover it, and a pull with no item on the move is not proof of no cause.
Related
9 eventsSource links
Tweets, videos, filings, articles, and source pages tied to this read.