Retail Scan — September 25, 2026 Close
Retail Scan — September 25, 2026 Close
McDonald's dropped into capitulation (RSI 24.7), the first name on this board to cross that line in this stretch — and this time the cause is on file: an investor-day unveiling of a big remodel and advertising push, alongside the CEO saying he expects high inflation and flat traffic to persist. Costco moved the other way, its RSI jumping from 41.9 to 52.3 after fiscal fourth-quarter results beat expectations on tariff refunds. Abercrombie's 30-day window flipped from +17.70% to -8.15% as last month's extension rolled out of the window even though the week itself stabilized. Lowe's got a real dated headline — a new drone-delivery partnership with DoorDash and Alphabet's Wing — but its price kept sliding anyway.
Data as-of the 2026-09-25 close. Prior scan: the September 23 retail scan (data as-of the 2026-09-23 close). This edition covers a short, two-trading-day window — Wednesday's close to Friday's — rather than a full week.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 One name (McDonald's) fell into capitulation for the first time this stretch, with a genuine dated cause on file; the broader oversold-or-worse count held roughly flat at ten of twenty-two. |
| Leaders | SHOP (+10.7% trailing 7-day), ONON (+9.9%), CROX (+3.19%), COST (+3.07%). |
| Laggards | CMG (-6.28%), MCD (-4.73%), HD (-2.26%), LOW (-1.67%). |
| Caveat | HD, WMT and TJX all carry freshly-fetched news files (September 23–25) that return only quote/overview pages — no dated item inside this window for any of the three. |
What's Going On
McDonald's is the confirmed story on this board. RSI fell from 25.9 to 24.7 — capitulation territory for the first time in this stretch — on a 7-day decline that deepened from -4.12% to -4.73%. Unlike the prior scan's unexplained drop, this one has a receipt: CNBC reported on September 23 that McDonald's unveiled a new growth strategy ("McDonald's > NEXT") built around large remodel and training spending, in an article headlined "McDonald's stock falls as it unveils plan to spend big on restaurant upgrades." The same day, CNBC separately reported CEO Chris Kempczinski telling investors he expects high inflation and lackluster traffic to persist in the industry. Together those are a genuine, dated cause for a stock now 19% below its 200-day average with a -21.77% trailing year.
Costco moved in the opposite direction with an equally real cause. Its RSI jumped from 41.9 to 52.3 — the largest RSI move on this board — after the company reported fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results on September 24. MarketWatch's headline captured the nuance: "Costco's results beat expectations. Here's why investors are still cautious," attributing the beat partly to tariff refunds. The stock rose to $922.77 (7-day change +3.07%) but remains 3.9% below its 200-day average — a real beat that hasn't yet repaired the longer trend.
Abercrombie's move this scan is a base-effect story rather than a fresh event. Its 7-day change nearly flattened out (-5.46% to -0.04%), meaning the sharp decline from two scans ago has stopped, but its 30-day window flipped from +17.70% to -8.15% as the large prior extension (from a +48.30% three-month gain) rolled out of the trailing window. The stock is still 34.7% over its 200-day with a +54.46% trailing year — a strong long structure working through the mechanical effect of an old rally exiting its 30-day lookback, not a new decline.
Lowe's is the case where a real dated headline didn't move the price. CNBC reported on September 24 that Lowe's is launching a drone-delivery service in partnership with DoorDash and Alphabet's Wing — a genuine, dated item — but the stock still fell 1.67% on the week and RSI ticked down from 34.7 to 33.5. The news is on file; it simply wasn't the trigger for this week's direction. TJ Maxx's bounce, flagged as a two-week confirmation last scan, decelerated hard: RSI cooled from 43.8 to 40.5 and the 7-day gain shrank from +7.12% to +2.22%, with no fresh news covering either week. On Holding gave back a small amount of its huge prior week (price $30.16 to $29.96) while its trailing 7-day figure still reads +9.9%, reflecting how much of last week's 11.09% gain remains inside the rolling window even as the stock itself pulled back slightly. Coca-Cola Consolidated's slide decelerated sharply, from -5.63% to -0.93% weekly, with price recovering to $190.29.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-23 close → 2026-09-25 close)
- MCD fell into capitulation: RSI 25.9→24.7, price $238.32→$236.50, 7D -4.12%→-4.73%. Dated cause on file: McDonald's unveiled new remodel/advertising spending plans and its CEO flagged persistent inflation and flat traffic, both September 23.
- COST had the board's largest RSI move: RSI 41.9→52.3, price $904.70→$922.77, 7D +1.23%→+3.07%, 30D -6.87%→-3.49%. Dated cause on file: fiscal Q4/full-year 2026 results, reported September 24, beat expectations on tariff refunds.
- ANF's 30-day window flipped sign as the base rolled off: 30D +17.70%→-8.15%, while the week itself stabilized: 7D -5.46%→-0.04%.
- TJX decelerated hard from its bounce: RSI 43.8→40.5, price $131.59→$130.06, 7D +7.12%→+2.22%.
- WMT gave back part of its recovery: RSI 57.6→49.3, price $110.53→$107.98, 7D +2.82%→+1.17%.
- LOW got a dated headline (drone-delivery partnership, September 24) but kept sliding: RSI 34.7→33.5, price $191.36→$189.28, 7D -1.41%→-1.67%.
- COKE's decline decelerated sharply: RSI 43.9→47.9, price $187.49→$190.29, 7D -5.63%→-0.93%.
- HD, SHOP, CASY, CMG, DPZ, YUM, DECK, NKE, AS, LULU, SBUX, CROX, XRT, ONON, TGT all moved within a narrower band; no new structural break for any of them this window.
- No entrants, no dropouts.
How To Read The Board
These rows are screen evidence, not setups. The separator is the long trend — distance from the 200-day average plus the trailing year — and this window is short enough (two trading days) that most of the movement below is noise around that longer picture, except where a dated cause is named.
Four names still pass both tests: TGT (23.7% over its 200-day, +80.69% year), ANF (34.7%, +54.46%), CROX (19.4%, +64.57%) and COKE (4.8%, +67.02%). SHOP sits in the mixed category — 9.5% over its 200-day but still a slightly negative trailing year (-0.84%) and negative alpha (-18.05). WMT is the inverse shape: a positive trailing year (+4.78%) from 8.9% below its 200-day. CASY stays mixed, with a positive year (+10.19%) from 18.1% below its 200-day and a 30-day window still deeply negative (-25.85%).
The remaining fifteen — HD, LOW, MCD, DPZ, YUM, NKE, AS, DECK, LULU, ONON, CMG — plus the sector fund XRT are negative on both the 200-day distance and the trailing year at once. McDonald's is now the extreme case in that group: 19% under its 200-day, -21.77% trailing year, and the only name on this board to reach capitulation-level RSI this scan. SBUX sits at the tipping point: barely positive on the trailing year (+13.16%) but 3.7% under its 200-day with negative alpha — a trend genuinely under test rather than intact.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CROX | $126.14 | 58.5 | $118.00 | +6.9% | +3.19% | +2.02% | 🟡 Neutral |
| ONON | $29.96 | 54.2 | $28.04 | +6.8% | +9.90% | +2.50% | 🟡 Neutral |
| SHOP | $142.25 | 53.4 | $137.77 | +3.3% | +10.70% | -5.35% | 🟡 Neutral |
| ANF | $135.71 | 53.2 | $140.95 | -3.7% | -0.04% | -8.15% | 🟡 Neutral |
| COST | $922.77 | 52.3 | $912.20 | +1.2% | +3.07% | -3.49% | 🟡 Neutral |
| TGT | $157.45 | 50.6 | $159.19 | -1.1% | -0.47% | -4.02% | 🟡 Neutral |
| WMT | $107.98 | 49.3 | $107.11 | +0.8% | +1.17% | +3.49% | 🟡 Neutral |
| COKE | $190.29 | 47.9 | $193.26 | -1.5% | -0.93% | -1.92% | 🟡 Neutral |
| LULU | $101.30 | 41.9 | $105.13 | -3.6% | +3.30% | -12.94% | 🟡 Neutral |
| TJX | $130.06 | 40.5 | $129.38 | +0.5% | +2.22% | -4.95% | 🟡 Neutral |
| YUM | $138.63 | 40.3 | $144.38 | -4.0% | +0.46% | -10.22% | 🟡 Neutral |
| AS | $27.77 | 42.7 | $28.02 | -0.9% | +3.89% | -10.65% | 🟡 Neutral |
| XRT | $82.47 | 39.4 | $84.36 | -2.2% | +0.54% | -6.53% | 🟢 Oversold |
| DECK | $78.67 | 35.8 | $81.38 | -3.3% | +0.31% | -12.07% | 🟢 Oversold |
| NKE | $35.75 | 35.0 | $37.10 | -3.6% | +0.68% | -7.36% | 🟢 Oversold |
| LOW | $189.28 | 33.5 | $197.08 | -4.0% | -1.67% | -10.02% | 🟢 Oversold |
| DPZ | $292.14 | 31.8 | $317.77 | -8.1% | -0.70% | -15.21% | 🟢 Oversold |
| SBUX | $94.86 | 31.6 | $99.77 | -4.9% | -1.01% | -12.56% | 🟢 Oversold |
| HD | $293.20 | 31.1 | $309.00 | -5.1% | -2.26% | -12.44% | 🟢 Oversold |
| CMG | $31.33 | 30.1 | $35.31 | -11.3% | -6.28% | -16.10% | 🟢 Oversold |
| CASY | $598.46 | 27.5 | $655.79 | -8.7% | +0.16% | -25.85% | 🟢 Oversold |
| MCD | $236.50 | 24.7 | $252.32 | -6.3% | -4.73% | -11.40% | 🟢 Oversold |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): MCD (24.7) — the first name on this board to reach capitulation this stretch, with a dated cause on file.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): CASY (27.5), CMG (30.1), HD (31.1), SBUX (31.6), DPZ (31.8), LOW (33.5), NKE (35.0), DECK (35.8), XRT (39.4). Nine names.
Neutral/Strong (RSI 40 and up): YUM (40.3), TJX (40.5), LULU (41.9), AS (42.7), COKE (47.9), WMT (49.3), TGT (50.6), COST (52.3), ANF (53.2), SHOP (53.4), ONON (54.2), CROX (58.5, the board's highest print).
Entry Zones
Conditions, not advice.
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis / condition |
|---|---|---|
| TGT | $159.19 (20-day) reclaim | Still the cleanest long structure on the board: 23.7% over its 200-day, +80.69% year. |
| ANF | $140.95 (20-day) reclaim | The week stabilized even as the 30-day window flipped negative on a base-effect rollout; still 34.7% over its 200-day. |
| CROX | $118.00 (20-day) as support | Intact trend, extending; no dated cause on file for the recent strength. |
| COKE | Watch the 200-day cushion, now 4.8% | Decline decelerated sharply; the year is still strong (+67.02%) but the margin is thinner than two scans ago. |
| COST | $912.20 (20-day) reclaim | Real earnings beat on file (September 24), but still 3.9% under its 200-day. |
| SHOP | $137.77 (20-day) as support | Above its 200-day (+9.5%) but the trailing year is still slightly negative — confirm before calling it repaired. |
| CASY | Watch the 50-day before any zone | Still 18.1% under its 200-day with a 30-day window at -25.85%; the floor is not found. |
| LOW | No zone despite a real dated headline | The drone-delivery news (September 24) is on file but did not stop the slide. |
| MCD | No zone | First capitulation print on this board, with a genuine dated cause behind it — a falling knife, not a discount. |
| HD, DPZ, NKE, AS, DECK, LULU, SBUX, YUM, TJX, XRT | No zone | Under the 200-day with negative trailing years; small weekly moves are noise against that picture. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 🟢 Oversold | 🚨 Alert | First capitulation print on this board, with a confirmed dated cause (investor-day spending plan, CEO inflation comments, September 23). |
| COST | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Real earnings beat (September 24) drove the board's biggest RSI move; still under its 200-day. |
| TGT, ANF, CROX | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold | The board's cleanest long structures. |
| COKE | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Decline decelerated sharply; structural cushion still thinner than two scans ago. |
| SHOP | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Above its 200-day but trailing year still negative — confirm before calling it repaired. |
| ONON | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Gave back a little of last week's huge move; still inside a broken long trend. |
| WMT, TJX, YUM | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Decelerating bounces; long-horizon records still mixed or negative. |
| LOW | 🟢 Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid | Real dated news (drone delivery) didn't stop the slide this window. |
| CASY | 🟢 Oversold | 🔍 Watch | Still oversold; the 30-day window deepened again. |
| HD | 🟢 Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid | Deep under its 200-day with a negative trailing year. |
| SBUX | 🟢 Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid | Bounced off its low but still under its 200-day with negative alpha. |
| CMG | 🟢 Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid | Deepened further into oversold this window with no dated cause on file. |
| DPZ, NKE, AS, DECK, LULU, XRT | 🟢 Oversold | ❌ Don't buy / 🔍 Watch | Weak on both the 200-day and the trailing year. |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether McDonald's capitulation print marks a bottom or continues | A genuine dated cause is now on file (remodel spending, CEO inflation comments); watch whether the market keeps selling the plan. |
| Whether Costco's earnings beat starts closing the gap to its 200-day | Still 3.9% under it despite the board's biggest RSI move this scan. |
| Whether Lowe's drone-delivery partnership shows up in the price with a lag | The news is dated and real but hasn't moved the stock yet. |
| Abercrombie's 30-day window, now negative on a base effect | Watch whether it turns positive again as new data replaces the rolled-off month, or whether fresh weakness follows. |
| Whether On Holding's pullback from last week's surge continues or stabilizes | Trailing 7-day still reads +9.9%, but the stock itself eased from $30.16 to $29.96. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| McDonald's fell into capitulation with a confirmed, dated cause — the first resolved "unexplained move" from a prior scan | An investor-day spending plan and CEO comments on persistent inflation, both dated September 23, are now on file. |
| Costco's RSI jump to 52.3 traces directly to a real earnings beat reported September 24 | Tariff refunds helped the beat, per the on-file coverage — though the stock remains under its 200-day. |
| Abercrombie's 30-day window flipped from +17.70% to -8.15% purely from a large prior gain rolling out of the window | A sign change in a rolling-window statistic isn't always a new event — the week itself barely moved. |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Assuming a real, dated headline explains a stock's move | Lowe's drone-delivery partnership (September 24) is confirmed and dated, but the stock still fell on the week — a receipt is not automatically a cause. |
| Reading a sign flip in a 30-day return as a new decline | Abercrombie's flip to -8.15% was a base effect from an old rally exiting the window, not fresh selling. |
Open Questions
- Does McDonald's stock keep falling on the new spending plan, or was this an overreaction that stabilizes?
- Does Costco's earnings beat translate into a reclaim of its 200-day, or does investor caution (per the coverage) keep a lid on it?
- Does On Holding's small pullback from last week's 11.09% surge continue, or was it just a pause?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — retail.
- Prior-scan comparison values: 2026-09-23-retail-scan.
- McDonald's investor-day spending plan and CEO comments, both dated September 23 — 2026-09-23-cnbc-mcdonald-s-stock-falls-as-it-unveils-plan-to-spend-big-on-re-108366345 and 2026-09-23-cnbc-mcdonald-s-ceo-expects-high-inflation-lackluster-traffic-are-108366574.
- Costco fiscal Q4/full-year 2026 earnings, reported September 24 — 2026-09-24-cost-earnings and 2026-09-24-marketwatch-costco-x2019-s-results-beat-expectations-here-x2019-s-why-in--mktw-0005252615.
- Lowe's drone-delivery partnership with DoorDash and Alphabet's Wing, dated September 24 — 2026-09-24-cnbc-lowe-s-is-launching-a-drone-delivery-service-in-partnership--108365720.
- News pulls checked and found to carry only quote/overview pages with nothing dated inside this window: HD (latest, fetched 2026-09-25), WMT (fetched 2026-09-23), TJX (fetched 2026-09-25), SHOP (fetched 2026-09-25), ANF (fetched 2026-09-01, stale), CASY (fetched 2026-09-22), TGT (fetched 2026-08-25, stale), YUM (fetched 2026-07-17, stale), COKE (fetched 2026-07-07, stale). No cause is claimed for any of their moves beyond what is cited above.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.