Retail Scan — September 4, 2026 Close

Scan

Retail Scan — September 4, 2026 Close

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 37 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-28-retail-scan.md

LULU cratered on a confirmed Q2 miss — a 4% revenue decline and a slashed full-year outlook, reported Wednesday after the close — sending RSI from 51.9 to 31.8 on a -16.73% week and flipping the 30-day change from +1.50% to -18.54%. TJX deepened further into capitulation (RSI 22.7→22.3, the board's lowest print for a second straight scan) after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy on August 28, even as it still carries a beat-and-raise Q2 report on file from the same week. ANF cooled sharply from last scan's extreme overbought spike (RSI 77.7→71.2) while HD's 30-day window worsened hard (-2.39%→-9.09%) with no fresh news to explain it.

Data as-of 2026-09-04 close. All numbers from precomputed summaries/retail.json. Prior scan: 2026-08-28-retail-scan (2026-08-28, data as-of 2026-08-28 close) — the summary's own 7-day window runs 2026-08-28 to 2026-09-04, so the comparisons below line up exactly with that prior scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A board with one confirmed fundamental break (LULU) landing on top of a still-deepening capitulation name (TJX) and a broadly soft tape underneath — HD, LOW, MCD, and COST all saw their 30-day windows worsen further.
Key insight TJX has now spent two straight scans as the board's lowest RSI print despite a beat-and-raise Q2 report on file — an analyst downgrade (Jefferies, Aug 28) is the first concrete evidence tying the price action to a real catalyst rather than an unexplained disconnect.

What's Going On

LULU is the sharpest move on the board this scan. RSI fell from 51.9 to 31.8, price from $120.81 to $100.61, and the week alone dropped 16.73% (the single-day move on the print was -17.38%). The news receipt on file (fetched 2026-09-04, fresh) confirms the cause directly: Q2 results showed a 4% revenue decline and a significant cut to full-year guidance, released after Wednesday's close. LULU is now 34.1% below its 200-day average with a trailing one-year return of -51.18% (alpha1y -69.83) — a fresh, confirmed hit on an already-broken trend.

TJX deepened further into capitulation: RSI 22.7→22.3, price $135.12→$132.08, a further -2.26% week on top of last scan's -3.83% slide, and the 30-day change worsened to -17.41% from -16.4%. Last scan flagged a genuine disconnect between TJX's beat-and-raise Q2 report (above-plan comp sales, raised guidance, reported Aug 25) and its continued slide; this scan's news receipt (fetched Aug 28, at the edge of this week's window) adds a concrete data point — Jefferies downgraded TJX to Hold from Buy on Aug 28, the same day the prior beat-and-raise print rolled through. TJX is now 14.6% below its 200-day average with a trailing year that's turned slightly negative (-6.34%, alpha1y -24.99) — the trend is genuinely being tested, not just pulling back.

ANF cooled sharply after last scan's earnings-fueled spike: RSI fell from 77.7 to 71.2, price rose slightly from $148.42 to $149.67, and the week normalized to +0.84% from +36.16%. The 30-day change eased to +36.75% from +44.81% as the initial pop began rolling partially out of the window. ANF's news receipt (fetched Sept 1) shows nothing new since the Aug 26-27 earnings beat and guidance raise — this reads as the extension cooling on its own rather than a fresh development. ANF remains 54.2% above its 200-day with a trailing one-year return of +60.11% (alpha1y +41.46) — still an intact, strongly-trending name, just less extreme than last scan.

HD's 30-day window worsened sharply — from -2.39% to -9.09% — while its week only slipped modestly (-1.62%→-2.77%) and its RSI eased from 42.4 to 37.8. HD's news receipt is stale (fetched Aug 23, well before this week's window), so no cause is established for the deepening. HD remains 6.6% below its 200-day with a negative trailing year (-22.02%, alpha1y -40.67) — the same structurally weak framing as last scan, just worse on the 30-day window. LOW, MCD, and COST all showed the same pattern of a calmer week but a worsening 30-day change (LOW -3.54%→-7.04%, MCD -2.40%→-6.68%, COST -2.93%→-2.79% roughly flat), with LOW and MCD both remaining below their 200-day with negative trailing-year returns. WMT continued stabilizing — its week actually turned positive (+3.91%) and its 30-day change improved to -4.63% from -9.74%, though its news receipt is stale (fetched Aug 25) so the improvement isn't tied to any confirmed catalyst. ONON deepened further on the 30-day window (-23.9%→-26.71%), still the board's weakest structure at 29.3% below its 200-day and -39.22% over the trailing year.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-28 close → 2026-09-04 close)

  • LULU crashed on a confirmed Q2 miss and guidance cut: RSI 51.9→31.8, price $120.81→$100.61, 7D -0.21%→-16.73%, 30D +1.50%→-18.54%.
  • TJX deepened further into capitulation: RSI 22.7→22.3, price $135.12→$132.08, 7D -3.83%→-2.26%, 30D -16.4%→-17.41%.
  • ANF cooled sharply from last scan's overbought spike: RSI 77.7→71.2, price $148.42→$149.67, 7D +36.16%→+0.84%, 30D +44.81%→+36.75%.
  • HD's 30-day window worsened hard: RSI 42.4→37.8, price $330.19→$321.05, 7D -1.62%→-2.77%, 30D -2.39%→-9.09%.
  • LOW's 30-day window worsened: RSI 41.3→41.2, price $208.05→$204.45, 7D -3.73%→-1.74%, 30D -3.54%→-7.04%.
  • MCD's 30-day window worsened: RSI 44.2→34.3, price $265.00→$255.69, 7D -2.19%→-3.51%, 30D -2.40%→-6.68%.
  • SHOP's 30-day window flipped: RSI 61.2→52.0, price $152.90→$145.09, 7D +2.45%→-5.11%, 30D +18.37%→+0.59%.
  • WMT's week turned positive and the month improved: RSI 33.2→45.7, price $103.09→$107.14, 7D -0.58%→+3.91%, 30D -9.74%→-4.63%.
  • ONON deepened further: RSI 31.1→31.2, price $28.85→$27.99, 7D -3.86%→-3.05%, 30D -23.9%→-26.71%.
  • TGT, CMG, XRT, YUM, DPZ, DECK, CROX, AS, COST, SBUX, NKE all traded within a narrower range, no sharp break.

How To Read The Board

Golden-cross names (SHOP, SBUX, CMG, TGT, CROX, ANF, XRT) mean the 50-day average sits above the 200-day. Death-cross names (HD, LOW, AS, LULU, NKE, MCD, COST, WMT, TJX, DPZ, YUM, DECK, ONON) should have any bounce read as counter-trend until the cross itself flips — LULU's crash and TJX's deepening capitulation both happened inside that death-crossed group. On the long-horizon test: SBUX, TGT, CROX, and ANF all sit above their 200-day with strongly positive trailing-year returns — clean, intact trends even where this week was soft. WMT and TJX are the two names below their 200-day with mixed trailing-year signals — WMT still positive (+6.15%) so its slide reads as "under test, not broken," while TJX has now turned slightly negative (-6.34%) with a fresh analyst downgrade behind it, making it the name closer to a genuine break. HD, LOW, MCD, DECK, AS, NKE, ONON, and now LULU are weak on both windows at once — the genuinely damaged group, with LULU newly joining on a confirmed fundamental catalyst.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
ANF $149.67 71.2 $123.52 +21.2% +0.84% +36.75% 🟠 Overbought
TGT $164.44 63.2 $159.87 +2.9% +0.77% +11.33% 🟡 Neutral
CMG $36.96 55.4 $35.67 +3.6% -2.84% +7.13% 🟡 Neutral
SHOP $145.09 52.0 $149.53 -3.0% -5.11% +0.59% 🟡 Neutral
DPZ $341.08 49.3 $344.16 -0.9% -2.59% -6.96% 🟡 Neutral
XRT $87.59 48.9 $87.82 -0.3% +0.77% -4.19% 🟡 Neutral
YUM $150.71 48.2 $150.66 0.0% -2.03% -1.09% 🟡 Neutral
WMT $107.14 45.7 $108.93 -1.6% +3.91% -4.63% 🟡 Neutral
SBUX $104.47 44.9 $106.61 -2.0% -3.13% -1.44% 🟡 Neutral
LOW $204.45 41.2 $212.27 -3.7% -1.74% -7.04% 🟡 Neutral
NKE $38.40 40.1 $39.83 -3.6% -3.01% -9.54% 🟡 Neutral
COST $915.74 38.1 $947.19 -3.3% -3.21% -2.79% 🟢 Oversold
CROX $117.53 37.9 $124.78 -5.8% -3.86% -14.41% 🟢 Oversold
HD $321.05 37.8 $334.66 -4.1% -2.77% -9.09% 🟢 Oversold
DECK $85.81 37.7 $89.54 -4.2% -2.18% -13.59% 🟢 Oversold
AS $29.53 35.3 $31.82 -7.2% -4.9% -19.6% 🟢 Oversold
MCD $255.69 34.3 $267.11 -4.3% -3.51% -6.68% 🟢 Oversold
LULU $100.61 31.8 $118.92 -15.4% -16.73% -18.54% 🟢 Oversold
ONON $27.99 31.2 $30.19 -7.3% -3.05% -26.71% 🟢 Oversold
TJX $132.08 22.3 $142.48 -7.3% -2.26% -17.41% 🟢 Oversold

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI<25): TJX (22.3) — deepening further from last scan's 22.7, now two straight scans as the board's lowest print.

Oversold (25-40): COST (38.1), CROX (37.9), HD (37.8), DECK (37.7), AS (35.3), MCD (34.3), LULU (31.8), ONON (31.2) — eight names, up from four last scan; LULU and MCD are the new arrivals.

Neutral/Strong (40+): NKE (40.1) through ANF (71.2, the board's sole overbought print).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
LULU $100.61 31.8 -18.54% Confirmed Q2 revenue decline and guidance cut (Sept 3); now 34.1% below its 200-day with a -51.18% trailing year
TJX $132.08 22.3 -17.41% Deepening capitulation for a second straight scan; a Jefferies downgrade (Aug 28) is the first concrete evidence behind the slide, and the trailing year has now turned negative
ANF $149.67 71.2 +36.75% Cooled from last scan's extreme overbought spike; still 54.2% above its 200-day with a +60.11% trailing year — an intact trend normalizing, not reversing
HD, MCD, LOW see table 34.3–41.2 -6.68% to -9.09% 30-day windows all worsened this scan with no fresh news to explain it; all three remain below their 200-day with negative trailing-year returns
WMT $107.14 45.7 -4.63% Week turned positive and the month improved, though the news receipt is stale; still up 6.15% over the trailing year

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH LULU Confirmed fundamental miss just landed on an already-broken trend; watch for further deterioration
🔍 WATCH TJX Second straight scan as the board's lowest print; a Jefferies downgrade is on file, and the trailing year has now turned negative
🔒 HOLD TGT, CMG, SHOP, XRT, YUM, SBUX Golden- or near-golden-crossed with no long-horizon flags; this week's softness reads as pullback
⚠️ AVOID HD, LOW, MCD, NKE, AS, DECK, ONON Below the 200-day average with a negative trailing one-year return — structurally weak on both windows
🔍 WATCH WMT Week and month both improving without a confirmed catalyst; still worth confirming before reading as resolved

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
LULU's next print and guidance follow-through The 30-day window flipped from +1.50% to -18.54% on a confirmed miss
TJX's 200-day level ($154.72) Two straight scans as the board's lowest RSI print, with a fresh analyst downgrade and a now-negative trailing year
ANF's follow-through after cooling from overbought Still 54.2% above its 200-day on a genuine catalyst — confirm the extension holds at a calmer RSI
Whether HD, LOW, and MCD's worsening 30-day windows continue All three deepened this scan with no confirmed cause on file
ONON's follow-through Weakest structure on the board, still deteriorating on the 30-day window

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/long-horizon): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — retail.
  • LULU news receipt checked (latest, fetched 2026-09-04, fresh): Q2 results reported a 4% revenue decline and a significant cut to full-year guidance, released 2026-09-03 after market close.
  • TJX news receipt checked (latest, fetched 2026-08-28, at the edge of this week's window): TJX downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, dated 2026-08-28; the Aug 25 beat-and-raise Q2 report remains on file alongside it.
  • HD, WMT news receipts checked (latest, .../WMT/news/latest.json) — both stale (fetched 2026-08-23 and 2026-08-25 respectively, before this week's window), so no cause is claimed for either move.
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.