Retail Scan — October 2, 2026 Close

Scan

Retail Scan — October 2, 2026 Close

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 95 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-25-retail-scan.md

Retail split in two this week: home-improvement and big-box defensives sold off — Lowe's -4.48% and Home Depot -3.53%, both with RSI in the mid-20s, and Walmart -3.45% — while Shopify led at +6.43% and Chipotle, Casey's and On rose. Nike's post-earnings slide (-3.64% on the day) and Lululemon (-6.75% on the week) kept the apparel group weak. Of 22 names, 5 sit above their 200-day average.

Data as-of the 2026-10-02 close (settled, Friday). The prior scan was the September 25 edition; the seven-day column below runs from that close to this one, so it is the change since the last scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Mixed: 10 up, 12 down. Home improvement (LOW, HD) and McDonald's are washed out with RSI 25.4, 25.8 and 23.8; Shopify and Target hold the strongest trends.
Leaders SHOP (+6.43%), CMG (+3.29%), CASY (+3.22%)
Laggards LULU (-6.75%), CROX (-6.38%), NKE (-5.26%)
Caveat Price and RSI come from the desk's pre-computed summaries only. Company-specific causes are named only where a dated capture exists; every other move is left as cause unknown.

What's Going On

Lowe's and Home Depot are the board's washout pair: Lowe's closed at $180.8 (RSI 25.4, -21.9% versus its 200-day, 1Y -26.90%) and Home Depot at $282.85 (RSI 25.8, 1Y -28.39%). Both are below their 200-day averages with negative trailing years, so these are long trends under test, not flag setups. McDonald's has the lowest RSI on the board at 23.8 with a 30-day move of -11.14%. No dated company-specific item explains any of the three: cause unknown (news pulled 2026-10-03 for LOW, HD and MCD, no dated item on the move; MarketBeat's undated McDonald's page characterizes the extended slide as investor worry over its $8.5 billion modernization plan, margin pressure and AI-driven pricing, an aggregator's characterization rather than a dated event; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked).

Walmart fell -3.45% on the week (RSI 40.1) and is 11.9% below its 200-day with a +2.52% trailing year — weaker than its defensive reputation. Nike's -3.64% drop on October 2 followed its October 1 print: CNBC reported disappointing sales and layoffs as part of a restructuring.

Shopify is the leader: +6.43% on the week, RSI 61.1, 16.9% above its 200-day, though its trailing year is only +0.06%. Target (RSI 47.5, 1Y +74.28%, +21.1% versus 200-day) and Abercrombie (1Y +58.64%, +34.0% versus 200-day) are the intact long trends. Casey's rebounded +3.22% on the week but is -18.02% over 30 days, the deepest 30-day decline on the board. Shopify's move has no cause in the corpus: cause unknown (SHOP news pulled 2026-10-03, no item on the move; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked).

What Changed Since Prior Scan

Since the September 25 scan: 10 names up, 12 down. Biggest decliners were LULU, CROX, NKE; biggest gainers SHOP, CMG, CASY. Names with RSI under 30: HD, LOW, NKE, MCD.

How To Read The Board

This is a price-and-momentum screen: it shows where each name sits on the tape, not why. RSI below 30 is a washout, 70 and above is extended. The long-trend columns matter more than the week: a name above its 200-day average with a positive trailing year is in an intact trend however ugly its week; a name below it with a negative trailing year is the one actually under test. Status icons follow that rule, and no insider or fundamentals data is included here.

Price Table

As of 2026-10-02.

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA20 7D 30D 1Y vs SMA200 Signal
SHOP 151.39 61.1 138.43 9.4 6.43 6.71 0.06 16.9 🟢 Healthy
CMG 32.36 38.9 33.85 -4.4 3.29 -15.99 -19.64 -7.2 🟡 Below long trend
CASY 617.76 36.9 619.05 -0.2 3.22 -18.02 10.04 -15.6 🟡 Pullback
ONON 30.85 59.7 28.49 8.3 2.97 10.97 -27.17 -18.8 🟡 Below long trend
TJX 132.68 48.3 129.22 2.7 2.01 1.04 -6.88 -13 🟡 Below long trend
DPZ 297.62 39.4 305.78 -2.7 1.88 -14.15 -30.99 -15.9 🟡 Below long trend
COKE 192.04 51 191.91 0.1 0.92 -1.65 60.97 5.4 🟢 Healthy
DECK 79.12 40 79.64 -0.7 0.57 -5.54 -23.78 -21.9 🟡 Below long trend
XRT 82.63 41.3 83.38 -0.9 0.19 -4.34 -4.78 -3.6 🟡 Below long trend
ANF 135.91 53.4 139.07 -2.3 0.15 -0.51 58.64 34 🟢 Healthy
SBUX 94.71 35 96.84 -2.2 -0.16 -11.25 9.21 -4.1 🟡 Pullback
COST 920.65 51.4 907.71 1.4 -0.23 -0.84 0.42 -4.2 🟢 Healthy
TGT 156 47.5 157.64 -1 -0.92 -4.51 74.28 21.1 🟡 Pullback
YUM 136.12 37.1 140.49 -3.1 -1.81 -10.02 -10.06 -11.6 🟡 Below long trend
MCD 231.89 23.8 244.92 -5.3 -1.95 -11.14 -22.67 -20 🟢 Oversold
AS 27.17 40 27.44 -1 -2.16 -4.87 -22.79 -21.5 🟡 Below long trend
WMT 104.26 40.1 107.09 -2.6 -3.45 -1.72 2.52 -11.9 🟡 Pullback
HD 282.85 25.8 299.67 -5.6 -3.53 -11.2 -28.39 -16.6 🟢 Oversold
LOW 180.8 25.4 192.47 -6.1 -4.48 -9.53 -26.9 -21.9 🟢 Oversold
NKE 33.87 28.2 36.24 -6.5 -5.26 -11.43 -54.58 -30.5 🟢 Oversold
CROX 118.09 45.2 118.5 -0.3 -6.38 1.99 37 10.9 🟡 Pullback
LULU 94.46 34 99.28 -4.9 -6.75 -21.33 -46.99 -34.8 🔴 Long trend broken

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI under 25)

Stock RSI 1Y vs SMA200 Read
MCD 23.8 -22.67 -20 Long trend broken

Oversold / weak (RSI 25-40)

Stock RSI 1Y vs SMA200 Read
LOW 25.4 -26.9 -21.9 Long trend broken
HD 25.8 -28.39 -16.6 Long trend broken
NKE 28.2 -54.58 -30.5 Long trend broken
LULU 34 -46.99 -34.8 Long trend broken
SBUX 35 9.21 -4.1 Mixed long trend
CASY 36.9 10.04 -15.6 Mixed long trend
YUM 37.1 -10.06 -11.6 Long trend broken
CMG 38.9 -19.64 -7.2 Long trend broken
DPZ 39.4 -30.99 -15.9 Long trend broken

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)

Stock RSI 1Y vs SMA200 Read
AS 40 -22.79 -21.5 Long trend broken
DECK 40 -23.78 -21.9 Long trend broken
WMT 40.1 2.52 -11.9 Mixed long trend
XRT 41.3 -4.78 -3.6 Long trend broken
CROX 45.2 37 10.9 Intact long trend, pullback
TGT 47.5 74.28 21.1 Intact long trend, pullback
TJX 48.3 -6.88 -13 Long trend broken
COKE 51 60.97 5.4 Intact long trend, pullback
COST 51.4 0.42 -4.2 Mixed long trend
ANF 53.4 58.64 34 Intact long trend, pullback
ONON 59.7 -27.17 -18.8 Long trend broken
SHOP 61.1 0.06 16.9 Intact long trend, pullback

Entry Zones

No price targets are set here; the reference levels are the 20-day and 50-day averages and the 52-week high gap, all from the summaries.

Stock SMA20 SMA50 From 52wk high Thesis
SHOP 138.43 140.75 -16.91 Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day
CMG 33.85 34.68 -24.43 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
CASY 619.05 745.48 -33.42 Mixed; wait for a base
ONON 28.49 31.13 -39.6 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
TJX 129.22 141 -21.95 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
DPZ 305.78 331.05 -32.72 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
COKE 191.91 190.67 -12.57 Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day
DECK 79.64 87.79 -35.3 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
XRT 83.38 86.64 -11.64 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
ANF 139.07 125.05 -12.44 Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day
SBUX 96.84 102.3 -14.3 Mixed; wait for a base
COST 907.71 933.13 -16.04 Mixed; wait for a base
TGT 157.64 155.68 -8.64 Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day
YUM 140.49 146.67 -20 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
MCD 244.92 259.25 -32.15 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
AS 27.44 31.01 -36.46 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
WMT 107.09 108.85 -22.86 Mixed; wait for a base
HD 299.67 322.58 -28.87 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
LOW 192.47 205.06 -38.31 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
NKE 36.24 38.95 -56 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
CROX 118.5 124.45 -16.41 Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day
LULU 99.28 111.93 -58.2 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
SHOP 🟢 Healthy 🔒 Hold No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
CMG 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
CASY 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
ONON 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
TJX 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
DPZ 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
COKE 🟢 Healthy 🔒 Hold No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
DECK 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
XRT 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
ANF 🟢 Healthy 🔒 Hold No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
SBUX 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
COST 🟢 Healthy 🔍 Watch No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
TGT 🟡 Pullback 📈 Accumulate on flag No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
YUM 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
MCD 🟢 Oversold 🔍 Watch (washout, trend broken) No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
AS 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
WMT 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
HD 🟢 Oversold 🔍 Watch (washout, trend broken) No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
LOW 🟢 Oversold 🔍 Watch (washout, trend broken) No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
NKE 🟢 Oversold 🔍 Watch (washout, trend broken) Reported Oct 1 after the close; CNBC capture (Oct 1): shares dropped on disappointing sales and layoffs announced with restructuring. Earnings record: EPS beat. Down on the day in the 2026-10-02 summary.
CROX 🟡 Pullback 📈 Accumulate on flag No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
LULU 🔴 Long trend broken ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether LULU stabilises Weakest seven-day move on the board (-6.75%), RSI 34, -34.8% versus its 200-day average.
Whether SHOP extends Strongest seven-day move (+6.43%), RSI 61.1.
Washout names: HD, LOW, NKE, MCD RSI under 30; a base needs a reclaim of the 20-day average first, and trailing-year trend decides whether it is a flag or a falling knife.

Sources

  • Tape data (price, RSI, averages, returns, long-horizon fields): pre-computed summary, 2026-10-02 close — retail.
  • Nike first-quarter fiscal 2027 print — CNBC, "Nike shares drop as retailer posts disappointing sales, announces layoffs as part of restructuring" (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/nike-nke-q1-2027-earnings.html), 2026-10-01-cnbc-nike-shares-drop-as-retailer-posts-disappointing-sales-annou-108370277; earnings record 2026-10-01-nke-earnings.
  • News check for names whose moves are called cause unknown: HD, LOW and SHOP re-pulled 2026-10-03; AS fetched 2026-09-18; LULU and NKE re-pulled 2026-10-03; SBUX fetched 2026-09-30; MCD re-pulled 2026-10-03; CMG fetched 2026-07-31; COST fetched 2026-09-30; WMT fetched 2026-09-28; TGT fetched 2026-08-25; TJX fetched 2026-09-30; DPZ fetched 2026-09-19; YUM fetched 2026-07-17; DECK fetched 2026-07-25; CROX re-pulled 2026-10-03; ANF fetched 2026-09-30; XRT fetched 2026-10-01; ONON fetched 2026-09-11; CASY fetched 2026-09-22; COKE fetched 2026-07-07. Every pull returned zero dated items; "no items" in a pull is not proof of no cause. research/stock-events/ checked for 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-02: only the Nike earnings record applies to this universe (NKE; other 10-01 events are ACN and VYLR, not on these boards). Capture articles for 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-02 were searched by company name; only the Nike CNBC item matched, and a re-check on 2026-10-03, after the October 2 article and X captures landed, found nothing on these names.
9 events