Retail Scan — October 2, 2026 Close
Retail Scan — October 2, 2026 Close
Retail split in two this week: home-improvement and big-box defensives sold off — Lowe's -4.48% and Home Depot -3.53%, both with RSI in the mid-20s, and Walmart -3.45% — while Shopify led at +6.43% and Chipotle, Casey's and On rose. Nike's post-earnings slide (-3.64% on the day) and Lululemon (-6.75% on the week) kept the apparel group weak. Of 22 names, 5 sit above their 200-day average.
Data as-of the 2026-10-02 close (settled, Friday). The prior scan was the September 25 edition; the seven-day column below runs from that close to this one, so it is the change since the last scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Mixed: 10 up, 12 down. Home improvement (LOW, HD) and McDonald's are washed out with RSI 25.4, 25.8 and 23.8; Shopify and Target hold the strongest trends. |
| Leaders | SHOP (+6.43%), CMG (+3.29%), CASY (+3.22%) |
| Laggards | LULU (-6.75%), CROX (-6.38%), NKE (-5.26%) |
| Caveat | Price and RSI come from the desk's pre-computed summaries only. Company-specific causes are named only where a dated capture exists; every other move is left as cause unknown. |
What's Going On
Lowe's and Home Depot are the board's washout pair: Lowe's closed at $180.8 (RSI 25.4, -21.9% versus its 200-day, 1Y -26.90%) and Home Depot at $282.85 (RSI 25.8, 1Y -28.39%). Both are below their 200-day averages with negative trailing years, so these are long trends under test, not flag setups. McDonald's has the lowest RSI on the board at 23.8 with a 30-day move of -11.14%. No dated company-specific item explains any of the three: cause unknown (news pulled 2026-10-03 for LOW, HD and MCD, no dated item on the move; MarketBeat's undated McDonald's page characterizes the extended slide as investor worry over its $8.5 billion modernization plan, margin pressure and AI-driven pricing, an aggregator's characterization rather than a dated event; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked).
Walmart fell -3.45% on the week (RSI 40.1) and is 11.9% below its 200-day with a +2.52% trailing year — weaker than its defensive reputation. Nike's -3.64% drop on October 2 followed its October 1 print: CNBC reported disappointing sales and layoffs as part of a restructuring.
Shopify is the leader: +6.43% on the week, RSI 61.1, 16.9% above its 200-day, though its trailing year is only +0.06%. Target (RSI 47.5, 1Y +74.28%, +21.1% versus 200-day) and Abercrombie (1Y +58.64%, +34.0% versus 200-day) are the intact long trends. Casey's rebounded +3.22% on the week but is -18.02% over 30 days, the deepest 30-day decline on the board. Shopify's move has no cause in the corpus: cause unknown (SHOP news pulled 2026-10-03, no item on the move; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked).
What Changed Since Prior Scan
Since the September 25 scan: 10 names up, 12 down. Biggest decliners were LULU, CROX, NKE; biggest gainers SHOP, CMG, CASY. Names with RSI under 30: HD, LOW, NKE, MCD.
How To Read The Board
This is a price-and-momentum screen: it shows where each name sits on the tape, not why. RSI below 30 is a washout, 70 and above is extended. The long-trend columns matter more than the week: a name above its 200-day average with a positive trailing year is in an intact trend however ugly its week; a name below it with a negative trailing year is the one actually under test. Status icons follow that rule, and no insider or fundamentals data is included here.
Price Table
As of 2026-10-02.
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D | 30D | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP | 151.39 | 61.1 | 138.43 | 9.4 | 6.43 | 6.71 | 0.06 | 16.9 | 🟢 Healthy |
| CMG | 32.36 | 38.9 | 33.85 | -4.4 | 3.29 | -15.99 | -19.64 | -7.2 | 🟡 Below long trend |
| CASY | 617.76 | 36.9 | 619.05 | -0.2 | 3.22 | -18.02 | 10.04 | -15.6 | 🟡 Pullback |
| ONON | 30.85 | 59.7 | 28.49 | 8.3 | 2.97 | 10.97 | -27.17 | -18.8 | 🟡 Below long trend |
| TJX | 132.68 | 48.3 | 129.22 | 2.7 | 2.01 | 1.04 | -6.88 | -13 | 🟡 Below long trend |
| DPZ | 297.62 | 39.4 | 305.78 | -2.7 | 1.88 | -14.15 | -30.99 | -15.9 | 🟡 Below long trend |
| COKE | 192.04 | 51 | 191.91 | 0.1 | 0.92 | -1.65 | 60.97 | 5.4 | 🟢 Healthy |
| DECK | 79.12 | 40 | 79.64 | -0.7 | 0.57 | -5.54 | -23.78 | -21.9 | 🟡 Below long trend |
| XRT | 82.63 | 41.3 | 83.38 | -0.9 | 0.19 | -4.34 | -4.78 | -3.6 | 🟡 Below long trend |
| ANF | 135.91 | 53.4 | 139.07 | -2.3 | 0.15 | -0.51 | 58.64 | 34 | 🟢 Healthy |
| SBUX | 94.71 | 35 | 96.84 | -2.2 | -0.16 | -11.25 | 9.21 | -4.1 | 🟡 Pullback |
| COST | 920.65 | 51.4 | 907.71 | 1.4 | -0.23 | -0.84 | 0.42 | -4.2 | 🟢 Healthy |
| TGT | 156 | 47.5 | 157.64 | -1 | -0.92 | -4.51 | 74.28 | 21.1 | 🟡 Pullback |
| YUM | 136.12 | 37.1 | 140.49 | -3.1 | -1.81 | -10.02 | -10.06 | -11.6 | 🟡 Below long trend |
| MCD | 231.89 | 23.8 | 244.92 | -5.3 | -1.95 | -11.14 | -22.67 | -20 | 🟢 Oversold |
| AS | 27.17 | 40 | 27.44 | -1 | -2.16 | -4.87 | -22.79 | -21.5 | 🟡 Below long trend |
| WMT | 104.26 | 40.1 | 107.09 | -2.6 | -3.45 | -1.72 | 2.52 | -11.9 | 🟡 Pullback |
| HD | 282.85 | 25.8 | 299.67 | -5.6 | -3.53 | -11.2 | -28.39 | -16.6 | 🟢 Oversold |
| LOW | 180.8 | 25.4 | 192.47 | -6.1 | -4.48 | -9.53 | -26.9 | -21.9 | 🟢 Oversold |
| NKE | 33.87 | 28.2 | 36.24 | -6.5 | -5.26 | -11.43 | -54.58 | -30.5 | 🟢 Oversold |
| CROX | 118.09 | 45.2 | 118.5 | -0.3 | -6.38 | 1.99 | 37 | 10.9 | 🟡 Pullback |
| LULU | 94.46 | 34 | 99.28 | -4.9 | -6.75 | -21.33 | -46.99 | -34.8 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI under 25)
| Stock | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 23.8 | -22.67 | -20 | Long trend broken |
Oversold / weak (RSI 25-40)
| Stock | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | 25.4 | -26.9 | -21.9 | Long trend broken |
| HD | 25.8 | -28.39 | -16.6 | Long trend broken |
| NKE | 28.2 | -54.58 | -30.5 | Long trend broken |
| LULU | 34 | -46.99 | -34.8 | Long trend broken |
| SBUX | 35 | 9.21 | -4.1 | Mixed long trend |
| CASY | 36.9 | 10.04 | -15.6 | Mixed long trend |
| YUM | 37.1 | -10.06 | -11.6 | Long trend broken |
| CMG | 38.9 | -19.64 | -7.2 | Long trend broken |
| DPZ | 39.4 | -30.99 | -15.9 | Long trend broken |
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)
| Stock | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS | 40 | -22.79 | -21.5 | Long trend broken |
| DECK | 40 | -23.78 | -21.9 | Long trend broken |
| WMT | 40.1 | 2.52 | -11.9 | Mixed long trend |
| XRT | 41.3 | -4.78 | -3.6 | Long trend broken |
| CROX | 45.2 | 37 | 10.9 | Intact long trend, pullback |
| TGT | 47.5 | 74.28 | 21.1 | Intact long trend, pullback |
| TJX | 48.3 | -6.88 | -13 | Long trend broken |
| COKE | 51 | 60.97 | 5.4 | Intact long trend, pullback |
| COST | 51.4 | 0.42 | -4.2 | Mixed long trend |
| ANF | 53.4 | 58.64 | 34 | Intact long trend, pullback |
| ONON | 59.7 | -27.17 | -18.8 | Long trend broken |
| SHOP | 61.1 | 0.06 | 16.9 | Intact long trend, pullback |
Entry Zones
No price targets are set here; the reference levels are the 20-day and 50-day averages and the 52-week high gap, all from the summaries.
| Stock | SMA20 | SMA50 | From 52wk high | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP | 138.43 | 140.75 | -16.91 | Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day |
| CMG | 33.85 | 34.68 | -24.43 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| CASY | 619.05 | 745.48 | -33.42 | Mixed; wait for a base |
| ONON | 28.49 | 31.13 | -39.6 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| TJX | 129.22 | 141 | -21.95 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| DPZ | 305.78 | 331.05 | -32.72 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| COKE | 191.91 | 190.67 | -12.57 | Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day |
| DECK | 79.64 | 87.79 | -35.3 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| XRT | 83.38 | 86.64 | -11.64 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| ANF | 139.07 | 125.05 | -12.44 | Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day |
| SBUX | 96.84 | 102.3 | -14.3 | Mixed; wait for a base |
| COST | 907.71 | 933.13 | -16.04 | Mixed; wait for a base |
| TGT | 157.64 | 155.68 | -8.64 | Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day |
| YUM | 140.49 | 146.67 | -20 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| MCD | 244.92 | 259.25 | -32.15 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| AS | 27.44 | 31.01 | -36.46 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| WMT | 107.09 | 108.85 | -22.86 | Mixed; wait for a base |
| HD | 299.67 | 322.58 | -28.87 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| LOW | 192.47 | 205.06 | -38.31 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| NKE | 36.24 | 38.95 | -56 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
| CROX | 118.5 | 124.45 | -16.41 | Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day |
| LULU | 99.28 | 111.93 | -58.2 | Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP | 🟢 Healthy | 🔒 Hold | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| CMG | 🟡 Below long trend | ⚠️ Caution | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| CASY | 🟡 Pullback | 🔍 Watch | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| ONON | 🟡 Below long trend | ⚠️ Caution | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| TJX | 🟡 Below long trend | ⚠️ Caution | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| DPZ | 🟡 Below long trend | ⚠️ Caution | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| COKE | 🟢 Healthy | 🔒 Hold | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| DECK | 🟡 Below long trend | ⚠️ Caution | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| XRT | 🟡 Below long trend | ⚠️ Caution | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| ANF | 🟢 Healthy | 🔒 Hold | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| SBUX | 🟡 Pullback | 🔍 Watch | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| COST | 🟢 Healthy | 🔍 Watch | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| TGT | 🟡 Pullback | 📈 Accumulate on flag | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| YUM | 🟡 Below long trend | ⚠️ Caution | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| MCD | 🟢 Oversold | 🔍 Watch (washout, trend broken) | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| AS | 🟡 Below long trend | ⚠️ Caution | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| WMT | 🟡 Pullback | 🔍 Watch | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| HD | 🟢 Oversold | 🔍 Watch (washout, trend broken) | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| LOW | 🟢 Oversold | 🔍 Watch (washout, trend broken) | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| NKE | 🟢 Oversold | 🔍 Watch (washout, trend broken) | Reported Oct 1 after the close; CNBC capture (Oct 1): shares dropped on disappointing sales and layoffs announced with restructuring. Earnings record: EPS beat. Down on the day in the 2026-10-02 summary. |
| CROX | 🟡 Pullback | 📈 Accumulate on flag | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
| LULU | 🔴 Long trend broken | ⚠️ Caution | No company-specific receipt; cause unknown. |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether LULU stabilises | Weakest seven-day move on the board (-6.75%), RSI 34, -34.8% versus its 200-day average. |
| Whether SHOP extends | Strongest seven-day move (+6.43%), RSI 61.1. |
| Washout names: HD, LOW, NKE, MCD | RSI under 30; a base needs a reclaim of the 20-day average first, and trailing-year trend decides whether it is a flag or a falling knife. |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, averages, returns, long-horizon fields): pre-computed summary, 2026-10-02 close — retail.
- Nike first-quarter fiscal 2027 print — CNBC, "Nike shares drop as retailer posts disappointing sales, announces layoffs as part of restructuring" (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/nike-nke-q1-2027-earnings.html), 2026-10-01-cnbc-nike-shares-drop-as-retailer-posts-disappointing-sales-annou-108370277; earnings record 2026-10-01-nke-earnings.
- News check for names whose moves are called cause unknown: HD, LOW and SHOP re-pulled 2026-10-03; AS fetched 2026-09-18; LULU and NKE re-pulled 2026-10-03; SBUX fetched 2026-09-30; MCD re-pulled 2026-10-03; CMG fetched 2026-07-31; COST fetched 2026-09-30; WMT fetched 2026-09-28; TGT fetched 2026-08-25; TJX fetched 2026-09-30; DPZ fetched 2026-09-19; YUM fetched 2026-07-17; DECK fetched 2026-07-25; CROX re-pulled 2026-10-03; ANF fetched 2026-09-30; XRT fetched 2026-10-01; ONON fetched 2026-09-11; CASY fetched 2026-09-22; COKE fetched 2026-07-07. Every pull returned zero dated items; "no items" in a pull is not proof of no cause.
research/stock-events/checked for 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-02: only the Nike earnings record applies to this universe (NKE; other 10-01 events are ACN and VYLR, not on these boards). Capture articles for 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-02 were searched by company name; only the Nike CNBC item matched, and a re-check on 2026-10-03, after the October 2 article and X captures landed, found nothing on these names.
Related
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