Retail Scan — September 18, 2026 Close
Retail Scan — September 18, 2026 Close
TJ Maxx ended three straight scans of deepening capitulation — RSI 17.8 to 31.2 on a +0.97% week — and Casey's took its place as the board's only capitulation print at RSI 23.8, down 28.54% on the month after its September 8 quarter. Home Depot is now the weakest of the established names at RSI 28.3, and Crocs delivered the only real up-week on the board (+8.68%). The Fed raised rates on Wednesday and oil remains up 17.5% on the month; the retail sector fund sits 4.6% under its 200-day average with a -7.30% trailing year.
Data as-of the 2026-09-18 close. Prior scan: 2026-09-11-retail-scan (data as-of the 2026-09-11 close). The 7-day window runs 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-18, so the comparisons below line up exactly with that scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Sixteen of twenty-two names at RSI 40 or below, the sector fund under its 200-day with a negative year, and the deepest single print now belongs to a name that just reported. |
| Leaders | CROX (+8.68% week), TGT (+1.51%), TJX (+0.97%) — the only green weeks on the board. |
| Laggards | CMG (-7.65%), ANF (-6.52%), DPZ (-5.58%), AS (-4.77%), XRT (-3.26%). |
| Caveat | Casey's and Coca-Cola Consolidated joined this list on September 11 and 12; both are first-appearance rows here, so their "since prior scan" comparison does not exist. News pulls for ANF (September 1), COKE (July 7) and DPZ (June 21) all predate this week. |
What's Going On
The three-scan capitulation story ended. TJ Maxx, which had gone 22.7 to 22.3 to 17.8 across three consecutive scans, closed this week at RSI 31.2 with the week itself positive at +0.97% and the 30-day loss narrowing from -17.42% to -11.94%. Nothing new is on file to explain the turn, and the structure has not repaired: 17.2% below the 200-day with a -9.07% trailing year. This is a bounce inside a broken trend, and it needs a second week before it is anything more.
Casey's General Stores is the new deepest hole on the board at RSI 23.8, 16.1% under its 20-day and 24.8% under its 50-day, with the 30-day window at -28.54%. This one has a receipt. The company announced first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on September 8 — 3.2% inside same-store sales growth and $7.37 earnings per share — and the news pull dated September 17 characterises the reaction as shares falling after the results despite revenue and earnings growth. That print sits before this week's window, so it explains the month, not the -2.92% week. The long horizon is mixed rather than broken: a +9.89% trailing year against an 18.2% gap to the 200-day.
Home Depot is now the weakest of the long-established names at RSI 28.3, down from 32.3, with the 30-day window deepening to -12.87%. Lowe's followed to 30.7. Both are under their 200-day averages with trailing years near -28%, and both have now deteriorated in every scan of this stretch. McDonald's (RSI 31.6), Domino's (31.7) and Starbucks (28.8) sit alongside them — the restaurant and home-improvement blocks are moving together and moving down.
The upside is narrow and specific. Crocs added 8.68% and took RSI from 36.3 to 53.5; Target rose 1.51% and is the only name on this board with both a large 200-day cushion (+25.9%) and a strong trailing year (+76.91%). Coca-Cola Consolidated, new to the list, is the second name with that shape — 6.2% over its 200-day, +71.64% on the year — and it did nothing this week at -0.28%. Abercrombie fell 6.52% but is still up 28.74% on the month and 51.0% on the year; that is an extended name giving something back, not a break. Shopify, which cratered 11.23% last scan, went flat at -0.23% and lifted off RSI 39.3 to 40.5, though it remains 1.4% under its 200-day.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-11 close → 2026-09-18 close)
Numbers for 09-18 come from this scan's price table; numbers for 09-11 come from the September 11 retail scan.
- TJX left capitulation after three scans: RSI 17.8→31.2, price $126.02→$127.24, 7D -4.59%→+0.97%, 30D -17.42%→-11.94%.
- CROX reversed: RSI 36.3→53.5, price $112.48→$122.24, 7D -4.30%→+8.68%, 30D -13.88%→-2.78%.
- HD deepened again: RSI 32.3→28.3, price $308.74→$299.98, 7D -3.83%→-2.84%, 30D -10.10%→-12.87%.
- LOW deepened again: RSI 33.8→30.7, price $196.82→$192.49, 7D -3.73%→-2.20%, 30D -8.87%→-12.50%.
- CMG posted the worst week: RSI 51.1→38.2, price $36.20→$33.43, 7D -2.06%→-7.65%, 30D +10.91%→-3.55%.
- ANF gave back: RSI 63.7→53.6, price $145.23→$135.76, 7D -2.97%→-6.52%, 30D +29.40%→+28.74%.
- TGT recovered: RSI 47.9→51.7, price $155.83→$158.19, 7D -5.24%→+1.51%, 30D +1.19%→-0.51%.
- SHOP stopped falling: RSI 39.3→40.5, price $128.79→$128.50, 7D -11.23%→-0.23%, 30D -14.37%→-12.33%.
- YUM recovered off oversold: RSI 34.2→37.2, price $140.87→$137.99, 7D -6.53%→-2.04%, 30D -6.30%→-5.44%.
- SBUX fell to the board's lowest established print: RSI 31.8→28.8, price $98.74→$95.83, 7D -5.48%→-2.95%.
- WMT, COST, MCD, LULU, NKE, AS, DECK, ONON, XRT, DPZ all traded within a narrower range; every 30-day window on those rows is still negative.
- New on the board: CASY (added September 11) enters at RSI 23.8, $597.48, 7D -2.92%, 30D -28.54%; COKE (added September 12) enters at RSI 49.3, $192.08, 7D -0.28%, 30D +2.80%.
How To Read The Board
These rows are screen evidence, not setups. The separator that matters is the long trend: distance from the 200-day average plus the trailing year.
Four names pass both tests: TGT (+25.9% over its 200-day, +76.91% year), ANF (+36.0%, +51.0%), CROX (+16.7%, +52.12%) and COKE (+6.2%, +71.64%). Two are mixed — CASY carries a positive year (+9.89%) from 18.2% below its 200-day, and WMT is 10.1% below its 200-day with a barely positive year (+3.02%). SHOP is the borderline case it became last scan: 1.4% under its 200-day with a -15.52% year.
The remaining fourteen — HD, LOW, AS, LULU, NKE, SBUX, MCD, CMG, COST, TJX, DPZ, YUM, DECK, ONON — plus the sector fund XRT are negative on both windows at once. A low RSI in that group describes a trend doing what it has been doing, not a discount. Yahoo Finance framed the setup on September 16 as retail stocks testing key levels around the Amazon, Walmart and Target forecasts; CNBC on the same day put a number on the consumer squeeze from oil and rates, an estimated $1,700 per household. Neither is tied by any receipt here to a specific name's move.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANF | $135.76 | 53.6 | $138.37 | -1.9% | -6.52% | +28.74% | 🟡 Neutral |
| CROX | $122.24 | 53.5 | $117.69 | +3.9% | +8.68% | -2.78% | 🟡 Neutral |
| TGT | $158.19 | 51.7 | $161.30 | -1.9% | +1.51% | -0.51% | 🟡 Neutral |
| COKE | $192.08 | 49.3 | $194.19 | -1.1% | -0.28% | +2.80% | 🟡 Neutral |
| WMT | $106.73 | 45.8 | $106.05 | +0.6% | -0.39% | -6.62% | 🟡 Neutral |
| SHOP | $128.50 | 40.5 | $139.88 | -8.1% | -0.23% | -12.33% | 🟡 Neutral |
| CMG | $33.43 | 38.2 | $36.57 | -8.6% | -7.65% | -3.55% | 🟢 Oversold |
| YUM | $137.99 | 37.2 | $148.19 | -6.9% | -2.04% | -5.44% | 🟢 Oversold |
| LULU | $98.06 | 36.4 | $109.30 | -10.3% | -0.92% | -17.91% | 🟢 Oversold |
| COST | $895.31 | 35.9 | $924.60 | -3.2% | -1.05% | -6.45% | 🟢 Oversold |
| ONON | $27.26 | 34.7 | $28.01 | -2.7% | -0.55% | -12.80% | 🟢 Oversold |
| XRT | $82.03 | 34.1 | $85.68 | -4.3% | -3.26% | -7.66% | 🟢 Oversold |
| DECK | $78.43 | 33.2 | $84.00 | -6.6% | -3.49% | -14.35% | 🟢 Oversold |
| AS | $26.73 | 32.7 | $29.05 | -8.0% | -4.77% | -21.43% | 🟢 Oversold |
| NKE | $35.51 | 32.2 | $38.00 | -6.6% | -3.51% | -13.50% | 🟢 Oversold |
| DPZ | $294.20 | 31.7 | $329.91 | -10.8% | -5.58% | -12.58% | 🟢 Oversold |
| MCD | $248.24 | 31.6 | $258.75 | -4.1% | -1.70% | -7.18% | 🟢 Oversold |
| TJX | $127.24 | 31.2 | $131.22 | -3.0% | +0.97% | -11.94% | 🟢 Oversold |
| LOW | $192.49 | 30.7 | $202.51 | -4.9% | -2.20% | -12.50% | 🟢 Oversold |
| SBUX | $95.83 | 28.8 | $102.94 | -6.9% | -2.95% | -8.72% | 🟢 Oversold |
| HD | $299.98 | 28.3 | $318.48 | -5.8% | -2.84% | -12.87% | 🟢 Oversold |
| CASY | $597.48 | 23.8 | $711.82 | -16.1% | -2.92% | -28.54% | 🟢 Oversold |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): CASY (23.8) — the board's only capitulation print, and a first appearance on this list. The September 8 quarter is on file; the week itself was -2.92%.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): HD (28.3), SBUX (28.8), LOW (30.7), TJX (31.2), MCD (31.6), DPZ (31.7), NKE (32.2), AS (32.7), DECK (33.2), XRT (34.1), ONON (34.7), COST (35.9), LULU (36.4), YUM (37.2), CMG (38.2). Fifteen names, the same count as last scan but a different membership: TJX arrived from capitulation, XRT and CMG dropped in, and CROX and SHOP climbed out.
Neutral/Strong (RSI 40 and up): SHOP (40.5), WMT (45.8), COKE (49.3), TGT (51.7), CROX (53.5), ANF (53.6, the board's highest print).
Entry Zones
Conditions, not advice.
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis / condition |
|---|---|---|
| TGT | $161.30 (20-day) reclaim | Only name combining a +25.9% 200-day cushion with a +76.91% trailing year, and the week turned positive. Cleanest structure on the board. |
| CROX | $117.69 (20-day) as support | Reversed hardest this week; 16.7% over its 200-day with a +52.12% year. Needs the move to hold without a catalyst on file. |
| COKE | $194.19 (20-day) reclaim | New to the board with the second-best long record here (+71.64% year, 6.2% over its 200-day); flat week, no damage. |
| ANF | $138.37 (20-day) reclaim | Gave back 6.52% but is still +28.74% on the month and 36.0% over its 200-day — extension unwinding, not a break. |
| CASY | Watch the 50-day at 24.8% above the close before any zone | Capitulation print with a dated quarter behind the monthly collapse; the long record is positive but the gap to trend is now very wide. |
| HD, LOW, MCD, TJX, DPZ, YUM, NKE, AS, DECK, LULU, ONON | No zone | Under the 200-day with a negative trailing year. Oversold here is the trend, not a discount. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold | Turned positive against a red board; strongest long record here. |
| CROX | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | +8.68% week, no dated cause on file; structure intact. |
| COKE | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | First appearance; strong year, quiet week, pull is ten weeks old. |
| ANF | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold | Extended name cooling for a second scan, still +28.74% on the month. |
| CASY | 🟢 Oversold | 🔍 Watch | Board's deepest print with a dated September 8 quarter behind the monthly drop. |
| TJX | 🟢 Oversold | 🔍 Watch | Capitulation streak broke this week; one week is not a turn. |
| SHOP | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Stopped falling after last scan's crash; still under its 200-day. |
| HD, LOW | 🟢 Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid | Deteriorated again; both near -28% on the year. |
| MCD, DPZ, YUM, COST | 🟢 Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid | Under the 200-day with negative years; the restaurant block is moving as one. |
| NKE, AS, DECK, LULU, ONON | 🟢 Oversold | ❌ Don't buy | Weak on every window at once. |
| XRT | 🟢 Oversold | 🔍 Watch | The sector fund itself is under its 200-day with a -7.30% year. |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether TJ Maxx's bounce survives a second week | Three scans of deepening capitulation ended this week with no explanation on file; the 200-day is still 17.2% overhead. |
| Casey's after its September 8 quarter | The print explains the month, not the week. The question is whether -28.54% over thirty days has found a floor. |
| Home Depot and Lowe's | Both worsened for a third straight scan. A stabilising week would matter more here than anywhere else on this board. |
| Target's follow-through | The only name with both a large 200-day cushion and a strong year turned positive this week. |
| The retail sector fund's 200-day, 4.6% overhead | Until it is reclaimed, individual oversold prints sit inside a falling group. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| TJ Maxx's three-scan capitulation streak ended on a +0.97% week | The longest unresolved disconnect on this board changed direction without a catalyst appearing. |
| Casey's replaced it as the deepest print, and this one has a receipt | A dated September 8 quarter sits behind a -28.54% month — the rare case where the screen and the record agree. |
| Four names pass both long-horizon tests; fifteen fail both | The board is not broadly oversold, it is broadly broken with four exceptions. |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Calling a first-appearance row a "new drop" | CASY and COKE joined the list this week; their absence from the prior scan is a coverage change, not a market move. |
| Reading Abercrombie's -6.52% week as a break | It is 36.0% over its 200-day and +28.74% on the month; that is an extended name cooling. |
Open Questions
- Does the TJ Maxx bounce hold, and does anything explain either the capitulation or the turn?
- Has Casey's found a floor after the September 8 print, or is the -28.54% month still extending?
- Is Crocs' reversal a group signal for footwear, or a single name — Nike, Deck and On all stayed red.
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-18 close — retail.
- Prior-scan comparison values: 2026-09-11-retail-scan.
- Casey's first-quarter fiscal 2027 results dated September 8 and the post-results reaction — latest (fetched 2026-09-17).
- Retail stocks testing key levels, September 16 — 2026-09-16-yahoofinance-amazon-walmart-and-target-forecast-retail-stocks-test-key-le-l-133115158-html.
- Household cost of oil and rates, September 16 — 2026-09-16-cnbc-consumers-hit-by-one-two-punch-of-oil-and-rates-from-iran-wa-108363233.
- Federal Reserve quarter-point increase, September 16, in a headline that also names Starbucks among the day's movers with no detail behind it — 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844.
- News pulls checked and found to predate this week's window: ANF (latest, fetched 2026-09-01), COKE (fetched 2026-07-07), DPZ (fetched 2026-06-21), CMG (fetched 2026-07-31), CROX (fetched 2026-09-11). SHOP's pull was fresh (fetched 2026-09-17) but returned quote and overview pages only. No cause is claimed for any of their moves.
- Oil and sector-fund context: market-pulse as of the 2026-09-18 close.
- CASY and COKE watchlist additions dated 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-12 — CHANGELOG.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.