Retail Scan — August 28, 2026 Close

Scan

Retail Scan — August 28, 2026 Close

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 37 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-22-retail-scan.md

ANF exploded on an earnings beat and a raised outlook — reported August 26, guidance out August 27 — sending RSI from 57.5 to 77.7 on a +36.16% week, the board's most extreme move. TJX went the other direction and deepened into true capitulation (RSI 22.7, the board's first sub-25 print), even though its own Q2 report (above-plan comp sales, raised full-year guidance, out August 25) read as a beat — the disconnect between that print and the price isn't explained by anything on file. WMT's weekly slide stabilized (-0.58% after last week's -10.03% earnings crash) but its 30-day change kept worsening to -9.74% as that crash rolled fully into the monthly window.

Data as-of 2026-08-28 close. All numbers from precomputed summaries/retail.json. Prior scan: 2026-08-22-retail-scan (2026-08-22, data as-of 2026-08-21 close) — the summary's own 7-day window runs 2026-08-21 to 2026-08-28, so the comparisons below line up exactly with that prior scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A board split between one explosive earnings winner and a capitulating anchor name — ANF ran to overbought on a real beat while TJX fell into the board's first sub-25 print despite its own report reading as a beat.
Key insight TJX's Q2 print (above-plan comps, raised guidance) is on file as positive, yet the stock deepened further into capitulation this week — a real disconnect between the reported fundamentals and the tape that isn't resolved by anything captured this session.

What's Going On

ANF is the standout this scan. RSI climbed from 57.5 to 77.7, price from $109.01 to $148.42, and the week alone added 36.16% — the board's largest single-week move by a wide margin. This tracks a real catalyst: Abercrombie & Fitch posted Q2 earnings that beat estimates by $2.18 EPS (reported August 26) and released FY26 guidance the following day. ANF now sits 55.8% above its 200-day average with a trailing one-year return of +53.77% (alpha1y +33.9) — an intact, strongly-trending name now extended well past overbought on the back of the print, not a technical bounce.

TJX moved the opposite direction and just as sharply, but without a matching story. RSI fell from 25.4 to 22.7 — the board's first capitulation-tier print (below 25) — as price dropped from $140.53 to $135.12, a further -3.83% week on top of last scan's -7.61% slide. The notable part: TJX's own Q2 FY27 report, published August 25, describes "above-plan comp sales growth of 4%" and raised full-year guidance — a beat-and-raise on its face. That the stock kept falling into deeper capitulation the same week that report came out is a genuine disconnect; nothing on file explains it, and it isn't established here whether this is delayed digestion of the report's details, sector read-through, or something else entirely.

WMT's weekly slide stabilized after last scan's earnings-driven crash: the 7-day change improved from -10.03% to -0.58%, essentially flat. But the 30-day change kept deteriorating, from -5.15% to -9.74%, as that earnings-week crash fully entered the monthly window. WMT is now 13.1% below its 200-day average, though it's still up 7.26% over the trailing year — the same "trend under test, not broken" framing from last scan still applies, just at a slightly worse level.

TGT cooled sharply out of overbought (RSI 76.0→63.5, week +7.08%→-1.36%) after three straight scans of extension, while staying comfortably above its 200-day (+35.2%) with a strongly positive trailing year (+68.56%). HD, LOW, and MCD all weakened further this week, and each of their 30-day windows flipped or deepened negative (HD +1.26%→-2.39%, LOW +5.75%→-3.54%, MCD +2.80%→-2.40%) — all three remain below their 200-day averages with negative trailing-year returns, the same structurally weak group flagged since the prior scan. ONON continued deteriorating (RSI 32.8→31.1, 30D -18.09%→-23.9%), still the group's weakest structure at 27.7% below its 200-day and -35.3% over the trailing year. SHOP, COST, YUM, DPZ, ANF's peers among the golden-cross names, and the rest of the board largely tracked the broader consumer tape without a sharp break tied specifically to retail.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-21 close → 2026-08-28 close)

  • ANF exploded on an earnings beat and raised guidance: RSI 57.5→77.7, price $109.01→$148.42, 7D +0.86%→+36.16%, 30D +13.5%→+44.81%.
  • TJX deepened into capitulation: RSI 25.4→22.7, price $140.53→$135.12, 7D -7.61%→-3.83%, 30D -9.57%→-16.4%.
  • TGT cooled sharply out of overbought: RSI 76.0→63.5, price $165.44→$163.18, 7D +7.08%→-1.36%, 30D +19.95%→+11.84%.
  • WMT's weekly slide stabilized but the month kept worsening: RSI 29.6→33.2, price $103.70→$103.09, 7D -10.03%→-0.58%, 30D -5.15%→-9.74%.
  • HD weakened, 30D flipped negative: RSI 46.0→42.4, price $335.61→$330.19, 7D -0.96%→-1.62%, 30D +1.26%→-2.39%.
  • LOW weakened, 30D flipped negative: RSI 50.0→41.3, price $216.09→$208.05, 7D -1.08%→-3.73%, 30D +5.75%→-3.54%.
  • MCD weakened, 30D flipped negative: RSI 49.9→44.2, price $270.95→$265.00, 7D -0.69%→-2.19%, 30D +2.80%→-2.40%.
  • COST softened, 30D flipped negative: RSI 49.0→48.1, price $947.74→$945.47, 7D -1.37%→-0.21%, 30D +2.20%→-2.93%.
  • ONON deepened further: RSI 32.8→31.1, price $30.02→$28.85, 7D -6.86%→-3.86%, 30D -18.09%→-23.9%.
  • SHOP, ANF's peers aside, SBUX, DPZ, YUM, CROX, DECK, XRT all traded within a narrower range, no sharp break.

How To Read The Board

Golden-cross names (SBUX, TGT, TJX, DECK, CROX, ANF, XRT) mean the 50-day average sits above the 200-day — TJX's collapse into capitulation happened inside that technically golden-crossed group, a reminder that the cross label alone doesn't prevent a breakdown. Death-cross names (HD, LOW, SHOP, AS, LULU, NKE, MCD, CMG, WMT, DPZ, YUM, ONON) should have any bounce read as counter-trend until the cross itself flips. On the long-horizon test specifically: WMT and TJX are both well below their 200-day averages, but WMT's trailing year is still positive (+7.26%) while TJX's is roughly flat (-1.46%) and its RSI keeps deteriorating — TJX is the one now closer to a genuine break rather than a pullback. HD, LOW, MCD, and ONON remain the names carrying real structural damage — below their 200-day with negative trailing-year returns, unchanged from last scan. ANF is the opposite case: a golden-crossed, strongly intact trend (55.8% above its 200-day, +53.77% trailing year) now extended well past overbought on a genuine catalyst.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
ANF $148.42 77.7 $115.42 +28.6% +36.16% +44.81% 🟠 Overbought
CMG $38.03 64.3 $34.86 +9.1% +3.12% +11.07% 🟡 Neutral
TGT $163.18 63.5 $156.15 +4.5% -1.36% +11.84% 🟡 Neutral
SHOP $152.90 61.2 $147.70 +3.5% +2.45% +18.37% 🟡 Neutral
SBUX $107.85 55.4 $106.40 +1.4% +0.71% +3.56% 🟡 Neutral
DPZ $350.00 54.9 $348.70 +0.4% +2.39% -2.78% 🟡 Neutral
YUM $153.86 53.5 $150.26 +2.4% +0.56% +1.28% 🟡 Neutral
LULU $120.81 51.9 $121.06 -0.2% -0.21% +1.50% 🟡 Neutral
COST $945.47 48.1 $951.56 -0.6% -0.21% -2.93% 🟡 Neutral
MCD $265.00 44.2 $269.98 -1.8% -2.19% -2.40% 🟡 Neutral
XRT $86.89 44.1 $88.98 -2.3% -0.90% -4.93% 🟡 Neutral
NKE $39.60 43.5 $40.71 -2.7% -2.85% -8.38% 🟡 Neutral
HD $330.19 42.4 $341.73 -3.4% -1.62% -2.39% 🟡 Neutral
LOW $208.05 41.3 $216.31 -3.8% -3.73% -3.54% 🟡 Neutral
CROX $122.23 41.0 $129.74 -5.8% +0.11% -8.46% 🟡 Neutral
DECK $87.76 37.5 $92.95 -5.6% -4.32% -15.24% 🟢 Oversold
AS $31.05 36.5 $33.60 -7.6% -4.87% -13.89% 🟢 Oversold
WMT $103.09 33.2 $110.24 -6.5% -0.58% -9.74% 🟢 Oversold
ONON $28.85 31.1 $32.60 -11.5% -3.86% -23.9% 🟢 Oversold
TJX $135.12 22.7 $149.26 -9.5% -3.83% -16.4% 🟢 Oversold

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI<25): TJX (22.7) — the board's first sub-25 print, deepening from last scan's 25.4.

Oversold (25-40): DECK (37.5), AS (36.5), WMT (33.2), ONON (31.1) — four names.

Neutral/Strong (40+): CROX (41.0) through ANF (77.7, the board's sole overbought print).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
ANF $148.42 77.7 +44.81% Exploded on an earnings beat and raised guidance (Aug 26-27); extended well into overbought after a real catalyst, not a technical bounce
TJX $135.12 22.7 -16.4% Board's first capitulation-tier print; a beat-and-raise Q2 report (Aug 25) hasn't stopped the slide — the disconnect between the print and the price isn't explained
WMT $103.09 33.2 -9.74% Weekly slide stabilized, but the month kept worsening as last week's earnings crash rolled fully into the 30-day window; still up 7.26% over the trailing year
ONON $28.85 31.1 -23.9% Continues deteriorating — 27.7% below its 200-day with a -35.3% trailing year, the group's weakest structure
HD, LOW, MCD see table 41.3–44.2 -2.4% to -3.5% Below their 200-day with negative trailing-year returns — structurally weak on both windows

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH ANF Extended into overbought after a genuine earnings beat and guidance raise; confirm whether the move holds at this level
🔍 WATCH TJX Capitulation-tier RSI despite a beat-and-raise report the same week — the print/price disconnect is unresolved
🔍 WATCH WMT Stabilizing on the week but the monthly trend still worsening; the 200-day level decides "under test" vs. "broken"
⚠️ AVOID ONON, HD, LOW, MCD Below their 200-day with negative trailing-year returns — structurally weak on both windows
🔒 HOLD SHOP, TGT, SBUX, YUM, COST Steady, no long-horizon flags — TGT cooled off overbought but remains strongly intact

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
ANF's follow-through after the earnings pop Confirm whether the guidance raise supports the extension or it fades from overbought
TJX's next print Capitulation-tier RSI despite a beat-and-raise report; the disconnect between fundamentals and price is still unresolved
WMT's 200-day level ($118.58) The line between "deep pullback" and "trend break" on a name still up 7.26% over the trailing year
ONON's follow-through Weakest structure in the group, still deteriorating
Whether HD, LOW, and MCD's worsening 30-day windows continue All three flipped or deepened negative this scan

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/long-horizon): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — retail.
  • ANF news receipt checked (latest, fetched 2026-08-27, fresh): Q2 earnings beat estimates by $2.18 EPS (reported Aug 26), FY26 guidance released Aug 27.
  • TJX news receipt checked (latest, fetched 2026-08-25, fresh): Q2 FY27 results with above-plan comp sales growth and raised full-year guidance, published Aug 25 — read as a beat, but does not explain this week's continued RSI/price deterioration.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.