Retail Scan — August 28, 2026 Close
Retail Scan — August 28, 2026 Close
ANF exploded on an earnings beat and a raised outlook — reported August 26, guidance out August 27 — sending RSI from 57.5 to 77.7 on a +36.16% week, the board's most extreme move. TJX went the other direction and deepened into true capitulation (RSI 22.7, the board's first sub-25 print), even though its own Q2 report (above-plan comp sales, raised full-year guidance, out August 25) read as a beat — the disconnect between that print and the price isn't explained by anything on file. WMT's weekly slide stabilized (-0.58% after last week's -10.03% earnings crash) but its 30-day change kept worsening to -9.74% as that crash rolled fully into the monthly window.
Data as-of 2026-08-28 close. All numbers from precomputed summaries/retail.json. Prior scan: 2026-08-22-retail-scan (2026-08-22, data as-of 2026-08-21 close) — the summary's own 7-day window runs 2026-08-21 to 2026-08-28, so the comparisons below line up exactly with that prior scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A board split between one explosive earnings winner and a capitulating anchor name — ANF ran to overbought on a real beat while TJX fell into the board's first sub-25 print despite its own report reading as a beat. |
| Key insight | TJX's Q2 print (above-plan comps, raised guidance) is on file as positive, yet the stock deepened further into capitulation this week — a real disconnect between the reported fundamentals and the tape that isn't resolved by anything captured this session. |
What's Going On
ANF is the standout this scan. RSI climbed from 57.5 to 77.7, price from $109.01 to $148.42, and the week alone added 36.16% — the board's largest single-week move by a wide margin. This tracks a real catalyst: Abercrombie & Fitch posted Q2 earnings that beat estimates by $2.18 EPS (reported August 26) and released FY26 guidance the following day. ANF now sits 55.8% above its 200-day average with a trailing one-year return of +53.77% (alpha1y +33.9) — an intact, strongly-trending name now extended well past overbought on the back of the print, not a technical bounce.
TJX moved the opposite direction and just as sharply, but without a matching story. RSI fell from 25.4 to 22.7 — the board's first capitulation-tier print (below 25) — as price dropped from $140.53 to $135.12, a further -3.83% week on top of last scan's -7.61% slide. The notable part: TJX's own Q2 FY27 report, published August 25, describes "above-plan comp sales growth of 4%" and raised full-year guidance — a beat-and-raise on its face. That the stock kept falling into deeper capitulation the same week that report came out is a genuine disconnect; nothing on file explains it, and it isn't established here whether this is delayed digestion of the report's details, sector read-through, or something else entirely.
WMT's weekly slide stabilized after last scan's earnings-driven crash: the 7-day change improved from -10.03% to -0.58%, essentially flat. But the 30-day change kept deteriorating, from -5.15% to -9.74%, as that earnings-week crash fully entered the monthly window. WMT is now 13.1% below its 200-day average, though it's still up 7.26% over the trailing year — the same "trend under test, not broken" framing from last scan still applies, just at a slightly worse level.
TGT cooled sharply out of overbought (RSI 76.0→63.5, week +7.08%→-1.36%) after three straight scans of extension, while staying comfortably above its 200-day (+35.2%) with a strongly positive trailing year (+68.56%). HD, LOW, and MCD all weakened further this week, and each of their 30-day windows flipped or deepened negative (HD +1.26%→-2.39%, LOW +5.75%→-3.54%, MCD +2.80%→-2.40%) — all three remain below their 200-day averages with negative trailing-year returns, the same structurally weak group flagged since the prior scan. ONON continued deteriorating (RSI 32.8→31.1, 30D -18.09%→-23.9%), still the group's weakest structure at 27.7% below its 200-day and -35.3% over the trailing year. SHOP, COST, YUM, DPZ, ANF's peers among the golden-cross names, and the rest of the board largely tracked the broader consumer tape without a sharp break tied specifically to retail.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-21 close → 2026-08-28 close)
- ANF exploded on an earnings beat and raised guidance: RSI 57.5→77.7, price $109.01→$148.42, 7D +0.86%→+36.16%, 30D +13.5%→+44.81%.
- TJX deepened into capitulation: RSI 25.4→22.7, price $140.53→$135.12, 7D -7.61%→-3.83%, 30D -9.57%→-16.4%.
- TGT cooled sharply out of overbought: RSI 76.0→63.5, price $165.44→$163.18, 7D +7.08%→-1.36%, 30D +19.95%→+11.84%.
- WMT's weekly slide stabilized but the month kept worsening: RSI 29.6→33.2, price $103.70→$103.09, 7D -10.03%→-0.58%, 30D -5.15%→-9.74%.
- HD weakened, 30D flipped negative: RSI 46.0→42.4, price $335.61→$330.19, 7D -0.96%→-1.62%, 30D +1.26%→-2.39%.
- LOW weakened, 30D flipped negative: RSI 50.0→41.3, price $216.09→$208.05, 7D -1.08%→-3.73%, 30D +5.75%→-3.54%.
- MCD weakened, 30D flipped negative: RSI 49.9→44.2, price $270.95→$265.00, 7D -0.69%→-2.19%, 30D +2.80%→-2.40%.
- COST softened, 30D flipped negative: RSI 49.0→48.1, price $947.74→$945.47, 7D -1.37%→-0.21%, 30D +2.20%→-2.93%.
- ONON deepened further: RSI 32.8→31.1, price $30.02→$28.85, 7D -6.86%→-3.86%, 30D -18.09%→-23.9%.
- SHOP, ANF's peers aside, SBUX, DPZ, YUM, CROX, DECK, XRT all traded within a narrower range, no sharp break.
How To Read The Board
Golden-cross names (SBUX, TGT, TJX, DECK, CROX, ANF, XRT) mean the 50-day average sits above the 200-day — TJX's collapse into capitulation happened inside that technically golden-crossed group, a reminder that the cross label alone doesn't prevent a breakdown. Death-cross names (HD, LOW, SHOP, AS, LULU, NKE, MCD, CMG, WMT, DPZ, YUM, ONON) should have any bounce read as counter-trend until the cross itself flips. On the long-horizon test specifically: WMT and TJX are both well below their 200-day averages, but WMT's trailing year is still positive (+7.26%) while TJX's is roughly flat (-1.46%) and its RSI keeps deteriorating — TJX is the one now closer to a genuine break rather than a pullback. HD, LOW, MCD, and ONON remain the names carrying real structural damage — below their 200-day with negative trailing-year returns, unchanged from last scan. ANF is the opposite case: a golden-crossed, strongly intact trend (55.8% above its 200-day, +53.77% trailing year) now extended well past overbought on a genuine catalyst.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANF | $148.42 | 77.7 | $115.42 | +28.6% | +36.16% | +44.81% | 🟠 Overbought |
| CMG | $38.03 | 64.3 | $34.86 | +9.1% | +3.12% | +11.07% | 🟡 Neutral |
| TGT | $163.18 | 63.5 | $156.15 | +4.5% | -1.36% | +11.84% | 🟡 Neutral |
| SHOP | $152.90 | 61.2 | $147.70 | +3.5% | +2.45% | +18.37% | 🟡 Neutral |
| SBUX | $107.85 | 55.4 | $106.40 | +1.4% | +0.71% | +3.56% | 🟡 Neutral |
| DPZ | $350.00 | 54.9 | $348.70 | +0.4% | +2.39% | -2.78% | 🟡 Neutral |
| YUM | $153.86 | 53.5 | $150.26 | +2.4% | +0.56% | +1.28% | 🟡 Neutral |
| LULU | $120.81 | 51.9 | $121.06 | -0.2% | -0.21% | +1.50% | 🟡 Neutral |
| COST | $945.47 | 48.1 | $951.56 | -0.6% | -0.21% | -2.93% | 🟡 Neutral |
| MCD | $265.00 | 44.2 | $269.98 | -1.8% | -2.19% | -2.40% | 🟡 Neutral |
| XRT | $86.89 | 44.1 | $88.98 | -2.3% | -0.90% | -4.93% | 🟡 Neutral |
| NKE | $39.60 | 43.5 | $40.71 | -2.7% | -2.85% | -8.38% | 🟡 Neutral |
| HD | $330.19 | 42.4 | $341.73 | -3.4% | -1.62% | -2.39% | 🟡 Neutral |
| LOW | $208.05 | 41.3 | $216.31 | -3.8% | -3.73% | -3.54% | 🟡 Neutral |
| CROX | $122.23 | 41.0 | $129.74 | -5.8% | +0.11% | -8.46% | 🟡 Neutral |
| DECK | $87.76 | 37.5 | $92.95 | -5.6% | -4.32% | -15.24% | 🟢 Oversold |
| AS | $31.05 | 36.5 | $33.60 | -7.6% | -4.87% | -13.89% | 🟢 Oversold |
| WMT | $103.09 | 33.2 | $110.24 | -6.5% | -0.58% | -9.74% | 🟢 Oversold |
| ONON | $28.85 | 31.1 | $32.60 | -11.5% | -3.86% | -23.9% | 🟢 Oversold |
| TJX | $135.12 | 22.7 | $149.26 | -9.5% | -3.83% | -16.4% | 🟢 Oversold |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI<25): TJX (22.7) — the board's first sub-25 print, deepening from last scan's 25.4.
Oversold (25-40): DECK (37.5), AS (36.5), WMT (33.2), ONON (31.1) — four names.
Neutral/Strong (40+): CROX (41.0) through ANF (77.7, the board's sole overbought print).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANF | $148.42 | 77.7 | +44.81% | Exploded on an earnings beat and raised guidance (Aug 26-27); extended well into overbought after a real catalyst, not a technical bounce |
| TJX | $135.12 | 22.7 | -16.4% | Board's first capitulation-tier print; a beat-and-raise Q2 report (Aug 25) hasn't stopped the slide — the disconnect between the print and the price isn't explained |
| WMT | $103.09 | 33.2 | -9.74% | Weekly slide stabilized, but the month kept worsening as last week's earnings crash rolled fully into the 30-day window; still up 7.26% over the trailing year |
| ONON | $28.85 | 31.1 | -23.9% | Continues deteriorating — 27.7% below its 200-day with a -35.3% trailing year, the group's weakest structure |
| HD, LOW, MCD | see table | 41.3–44.2 | -2.4% to -3.5% | Below their 200-day with negative trailing-year returns — structurally weak on both windows |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔍 WATCH | ANF | Extended into overbought after a genuine earnings beat and guidance raise; confirm whether the move holds at this level |
| 🔍 WATCH | TJX | Capitulation-tier RSI despite a beat-and-raise report the same week — the print/price disconnect is unresolved |
| 🔍 WATCH | WMT | Stabilizing on the week but the monthly trend still worsening; the 200-day level decides "under test" vs. "broken" |
| ⚠️ AVOID | ONON, HD, LOW, MCD | Below their 200-day with negative trailing-year returns — structurally weak on both windows |
| 🔒 HOLD | SHOP, TGT, SBUX, YUM, COST | Steady, no long-horizon flags — TGT cooled off overbought but remains strongly intact |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| ANF's follow-through after the earnings pop | Confirm whether the guidance raise supports the extension or it fades from overbought |
| TJX's next print | Capitulation-tier RSI despite a beat-and-raise report; the disconnect between fundamentals and price is still unresolved |
| WMT's 200-day level ($118.58) | The line between "deep pullback" and "trend break" on a name still up 7.26% over the trailing year |
| ONON's follow-through | Weakest structure in the group, still deteriorating |
| Whether HD, LOW, and MCD's worsening 30-day windows continue | All three flipped or deepened negative this scan |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/long-horizon): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — retail.
- ANF news receipt checked (latest, fetched 2026-08-27, fresh): Q2 earnings beat estimates by $2.18 EPS (reported Aug 26), FY26 guidance released Aug 27.
- TJX news receipt checked (latest, fetched 2026-08-25, fresh): Q2 FY27 results with above-plan comp sales growth and raised full-year guidance, published Aug 25 — read as a beat, but does not explain this week's continued RSI/price deterioration.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.