← all events raw scan snapshot Mar 10, 2026 — prices as of scan date, not live 70 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-04-26-retail-scan ported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-10-retail-scan.md scan slugretail-scan source typescan-archive
Broad retail weakness accelerating — XRT ETF at RSI 32 near oversold, NKE approaching capitulation (RSI 30), home improvement names HD /LOW breaking down. Only bright spots: SBUX near 52wk high, TGT surging +25.8% in 3M, COST holding flat at $997.
Quick Snapshot Signal Reading Overall 🟡 WEAKENING — Sector-wide pullback intensifying. XRT -5.3% 30D, RSI 32. Tariff fears + macro uncertainty hitting discretionary hard. Defensive names (COST, WMT, TGT) outperforming. Leaders SBUX ($100.77, +2.3% 30D, RSI 65), TGT ($120.74, +5.4% 30D, +25.8% 3M), TJX ($159.53, +6.1% 30D) Laggards NKE ($56.08, -9.5% 30D, RSI 30), LOW ($251.11, -12.5% 30D), AS ($34.69, -12.9% 30D), ANF ($86.83, -21.2% 3M)
Price Table (Pre-computed 2026-03-10) Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 52wkHi Signal XRT $82.63 32 $86.38 -4.3% -3.9% -5.3% -9.8% 🟡 Sector benchmark near oversold HD $357.15 37 $375.95 -5.0% -2.0% -8.6% -16.3% 🟡 Below SMA20, grinding lower LOW $251.11 33 $269.64 -6.9% -2.3% -12.5% -14.3% 🟡 Approaching oversold, sharp 30D drop SHOP $129.36 51 $122.72 +5.4% +1.1% +9.0% -29.0% 🟢 Bounced above SMA20, recovering AS $34.69 37 $38.33 -9.5% -5.7% -12.9% -18.9% 🟡 Furthest below SMA20, persistent weakness LULU $166.43 37 $177.35 -6.2% -4.1% -5.4% -52.2% 🟡 Over half off ATH, grinding lower NKE $56.08 30 $61.45 -8.7% -4.7% -9.5% -30.1% 🔴 At oversold threshold, turnaround failing SBUX $100.77 65 $97.19 +3.7% +3.5% +2.3% -3.9% 🟢 Near 52wk high, Niccol working MCD $327.94 53 $329.21 -0.4% -1.3% +2.0% -4.0% 🟢 Stable, hugging SMA20 CMG $34.72 36 $36.93 -6.0% -5.0% -6.7% -40.6% 🟡 Weakness persists, -41% from high COST $997.36 54 $996.26 +0.1% -0.7% +2.0% -6.5% 🟢 Rock solid, right at SMA20 WMT $125.12 50 $126.82 -1.3% -1.9% -2.8% -7.1% 🟢 Defensive anchor, modest pullback TGT $120.74 64 $116.48 +3.7% -1.5% +5.4% -4.2% 🟢 Strong momentum, +25.8% 3M TJX $159.53 56 $157.58 +1.2% -1.1% +6.1% -1.9% 🟢 Near ATH, off-price thriving DPZ $400.52 49 $396.07 +1.1% -2.1% +4.3% -19.8% 🟢 Steady, franchise resilience YUM $159.20 47 $161.95 -1.7% -0.1% +0.6% -6.0% 🟢 Stable, boring-is-good DECK $105.26 37 $114.27 -7.9% -2.7% -8.8% -21.1% 🟡 Hoka/UGG thesis intact but momentum broken CROX $82.91 40 $91.10 -9.0% -0.9% +0.2% -32.5% 🟡 Well below SMA20, flat 30D ANF $86.83 36 $93.54 -7.2% -5.9% -5.1% -34.8% 🟡 -35% from high, momentum faded
Tier Analysis Near Oversold (RSI 29-35) — Watch for Capitulation Entry Stock RSI vs SMA 30D Notes NKE 30 -8.7% -9.5% At the oversold line. Elliott Hill turnaround thesis severely stressed. -30% from 52wk high. Next support ~$53. XRT 32 -4.3% -5.3% Sector ETF approaching oversold — signals broad retail stress, not just single-stock issues. LOW 33 -6.9% -12.5% Sharpest 30D decline in group. Housing slowdown fears. HD/LOW correlated but LOW weaker.
Weak (RSI 35-40) — Pullback Territory Stock RSI vs SMA 30D Notes ANF 36 -7.2% -5.1% Lost -21% in 3M. Post-hype normalization after 2024-2025 run. CMG 36 -6.0% -6.7% -41% from high. QSR darling struggling with valuation reset. AS 37 -9.5% -12.9% Furthest below SMA20 in group. Small-cap retail under most pressure. LULU 37 -6.2% -5.4% -52% from ATH — deep value or value trap? Needs catalyst. HD 37 -5.0% -8.6% Housing/renovation cycle slowing. Better than LOW but same theme. DECK 37 -7.9% -8.8% Hoka growth story intact but stock not reflecting it.
Neutral (RSI 40-55) — No Urgency Stock RSI Trend CROX 40 Flat 30D (+0.2%), but -33% from high. No momentum either direction. YUM 47 Boring stability. Franchise model defensive. DPZ 49 Steady recovery, +4.3% 30D. Pizza delivery resilient. WMT 50 Slight pullback from highs, defensive anchor. SHOP 51 Bounced +9.0% 30D, above SMA20. E-commerce recovery. MCD 53 Flat at SMA20. Golden arches being golden arches. COST 54 Rock-solid at $997, membership model unshakeable.
Strong (RSI 55+) — Momentum Stock RSI Trend TJX 56 Off-price retail thriving. -1.9% from ATH. Winner-take-all. TGT 64 Big bounce — +25.8% 3M. Recovery from 2025 doldrums. SBUX 65 Near 52wk high. Niccol turnaround best consumer story right now.
Entry Zones Stock Zone RSI Thesis 🟢 NKE $53-$57 30 At oversold line, -30% from high. If turnaround thesis holds at all, this is the zone. Size tiny — knife still falling. 🟢 LOW $245-$255 33 Home improvement duopoly, -12.5% 30D selloff creating opportunity if housing stabilizes. 🟡 HD $350-$365 37 Same housing thesis as LOW but slightly stronger. Wait for RSI < 35. 🟡 ANF $82-$90 36 Post-hype normalization. -35% from high. Needs earnings catalyst. 🟡 LULU $155-$168 37 -52% from ATH. Deep value if athleisure thesis intact. Wait for RSI < 33 or catalyst. 🟡 DECK $100-$108 37 Hoka brand moat strong. Approaching $100 psychological support. 🟡 CMG $33-$35 36 QSR premium brand at -41% from high. Below $33 = further downside risk. ⚠️ SBUX Wait 65 Turnaround working but don't chase near highs. Add zone: $92-$96. 🔒 COST Hold 54 Membership compounder. No reason to sell. 🔒 TJX Hold 56 Off-price winner near ATH. 🔒 TGT Hold 64 +25.8% 3M run — momentum intact but getting extended.
Action Matrix Action Stocks Why 📈 ACCUMULATE NKE RSI 30, at oversold threshold. Tiny size — turnaround still unproven. 🔍 WATCH LOW, HD Home improvement pulling back hard. Wait for RSI < 30 or housing data. 🔍 WATCH ANF, LULU, DECK, CMG All RSI 36-37 zone. Wait for capitulation or stabilization signal. 🔍 WATCH AS, CROX Weak but no catalyst. CROX -33% from high, AS furthest below SMA20. 🔍 WATCH SHOP Bouncing (+9% 30D) but still -29% from high. E-commerce recovery play. 🔒 HOLD COST, WMT, MCD, YUM, DPZ Defensive retail/QSR names holding up. No action needed. 🔒 HOLD TJX, TGT, SBUX Momentum names near highs. Don't chase, don't sell.
What Changed (vs prior scan) Stock Change Note XRT NEW Added as sector benchmark. RSI 32 confirms broad retail weakness. NKE Deteriorating RSI 30 — now at oversold threshold. -9.5% 30D, turnaround losing credibility. LOW Sharp drop -12.5% 30D, RSI 33. Worst 30D performer in home improvement. AS Weakening -12.9% 30D, -9.5% below SMA20. Small-cap retail under heavy pressure. TGT Surging +25.8% 3M, RSI 64. Best momentum in group — recovery story working. SBUX Strength RSI 65, only -3.9% from 52wk high. Niccol era delivering. SHOP Bouncing +9.0% 30D, back above SMA20. Contrarian recovery from -29% drawdown. ANF Fading -21.2% 3M. Post-hype normalization accelerating.
Key Discoveries Discovery Implication XRT RSI 32 — sector ETF approaching oversold Broad retail stress, not stock-specific. Tariff + macro headwinds hitting whole sector. Clear bifurcation: value/off-price (TJX, TGT, COST) outperforming discretionary (NKE, ANF, LULU) Consumer trading down — off-price and essentials winning, aspirational brands losing. NKE at RSI 30 — six of 19 names in RSI 33-37 cluster Potential sector-wide capitulation setup if macro worsens further.
Open Questions
Will NKE break below $55 or find support at the oversold line?
Is the HD /LOW weakness housing-cycle driven or tariff-fear driven? Different implications for recovery timing.
TGT +25.8% 3M — sustainable turnaround or dead cat bounce?LULU at -52% from ATH — deep value or structural decline in premium athleisure?
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