← all events raw scan snapshot Mar 12, 2026 — prices as of scan date, not live 57 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-04-26-retail-scan ported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-12-retail-scan.md scan slugretail-scan source typescan-archive
COST and TJX hold the line as defensive fortress retail while HD , LOW , and ANF face significant selling pressure — home improvement in particular cracking with RSI approaching capitulation.
Quick Snapshot Signal Reading Overall 🟡 SPLIT — Defensive/value retail (WMT, COST, TGT, TJX) holding strong-up structures; specialty/home (HD, LOW, ANF, CROX) under heavy selling Leaders COST ($1000.92, RSI 54.7, strong-up), TJX ($157.10, +40.4% 1Y), WMT ($124.48, RSI 48.9, strong-up), TGT ($116.73, +21.5% 3M) Laggards HD ($341.42, RSI 29, death cross), LOW ($241.93, RSI 26.9, -15.3% 30D), ANF ($85.14, -24.0% 3M)
Price Table (Validated 2026-03-12) Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% Trend COST $1000.92 54.7 +0.2% +0.8% +0.2% +13.3% 🟢 strong-up SBUX $100.92 64.1 +3.5% +3.6% +5.0% +19.0% 🟢 strong-up TGT $116.73 53.5 -0.2% -0.6% +3.6% +21.5% 🟢 strong-up WMT $124.48 48.9 -1.6% +0.7% -6.9% +6.7% 🟢 strong-up TJX $157.10 49.4 -0.7% -0.9% +1.9% +0.9% 🟢 strong-up MCD $325.21 48.5 -1.3% -0.3% -1.5% +3.3% 🟢 strong-up YUM $158.96 47.7 -1.8% -0.3% -2.2% +5.7% 🟢 strong-up SHOP $126.83 48.9 +2.9% -2.5% +14.6% -22.8% strong-down DPZ $393.32 45.1 -0.9% -2.2% +3.0% -8.5% strong-down DECK $102.39 33.4 -9.4% -5.4% -11.8% +1.2% down CROX $80.46 36.8 -11.4% -2.5% -18.3% -10.5% strong-down LULU $160.16 31.5 -8.8% -5.7% -5.5% -21.9% strong-down XRT $81.13 27.6 -5.4% -3.1% -6.1% -7.5% down ANF $85.14 34.4 -8.4% -2.8% -7.4% -24.0% down LOW $241.93 26.9 -8.9% -2.9% -15.3% -1.7% down HD $341.42 29 -8.1% -3.4% -12.5% -5.1% strong-down
Tier Analysis Extreme Oversold (RSI < 30) — Capitulation Territory Stock Price RSI 30D% Notes HD $341.42 29 ↓ -12.5% Death cross. Home improvement slowing with housing market. -8.1% below SMA200. LOW $241.93 26.9 ↓ -15.3% Golden cross structural positive but -15.3% in 30D is severe. Housing cycle headwinds. XRT $81.13 27.6 -6.1% Retail ETF in oversold territory confirms sector-wide pressure.
Oversold (RSI 30–40) — Watch Zone Stock Price RSI Notes LULU $160.16 31.5 Death cross, -54% from ATH. No near-term catalyst. DECK $102.39 33.4 Golden cross intact; Hoka brand thesis. Watch $100 support. ANF $85.14 34.4 Golden cross despite near-term weakness. -34.8% from 52wk high, -24% in 3M. CROX $80.46 36.8 Death cross. Post-earnings gap fully reversed. -32.5% from 52wk high.
Neutral (RSI 40–60) — No Urgency Stock Price RSI Notes SHOP $126.83 48.9 Death cross, -22.8% in 3M. 30D bounce (+14.6%) is countertrend. WMT $124.48 48.9 Strong-up, +16.2% above SMA200. Defensive leader pulling back slightly. TJX $157.10 49.4 Strong-up, near 52wk high (-1.9%). Consistent compounder. DPZ $393.32 45.1 Death cross; franchise model intact but structure weak. MCD $325.21 48.5 Strong-up, golden cross, defensive QSR name holding well. YUM $158.96 47.7 Strong-up, golden cross, +7.1% above SMA200. QSR resilience.
Strong (RSI 60+) — Momentum Stock Price RSI Notes SBUX $100.92 64.1 Strong-up, golden cross. Niccol turnaround best consumer story. COST $1000.92 54.7 Strong-up, golden cross. Crossed $1000 — institutional anchor. TGT $116.73 53.5 Strong-up, +19.7% above SMA200, +21.5% in 3M. Recovery story intact.
Entry Zones Stock Zone RSI Action Notes HD $325–$345 29 ↓ 📈 Accumulate Approaching capitulation. Long-term compounder. Housing headwinds are cyclical, not structural. LOW $235–$245 26.9 ↓ 📈 Accumulate Golden cross = structural positive. -15.3% selling may be overdone. Entry zone now. ANF $82–$88 34.4 🔍 Watch -24% in 3M, golden cross intact. Wait for RSI < 30 for conviction. DECK $98–$105 33.4 🔍 Watch Golden cross + Hoka thesis. Watch $100 level. WMT $120–$125 48.9 📈 Accumulate Strong-up compounder. Add on any further pullback. COST $990–$1005 54.7 🔒 Hold Strong compounder. Hold; add if dips below $1000. TJX $155–$158 49.4 🔒 Hold Near 52wk high, consistent compounder. No action needed. SHOP Wait 48.9 ⚠️ Caution Death cross, -22.8% in 3M. 30D bounce is countertrend.
Action Matrix Action Stocks Why 📈 ACCUMULATE HD, LOW, WMT HD/LOW at/near capitulation; WMT defensive compounder 🔍 WATCH ANF, DECK, CROX, LULU Near oversold, wait for RSI stabilization 🔒 HOLD COST, TJX, TGT, MCD, YUM Strong-up structures; QSR/value retail holding ⚠️ CAUTION SHOP Death cross + countertrend bounce, structural weak ❌ DON'T BUY DPZ Death cross, -8.1% below SMA200, no catalyst
What Changed (vs 2026-03-10) Stock Mar-10 Mar-12 Move Note HD ~$355 $341.42, RSI 29 Capitulating Now in extreme oversold. Entry territory. LOW ~$248 $241.93, RSI 26.9 Capitulating -15.3% in 30D; golden cross = buy the dip candidate TGT ~$113 $116.73, +21.5% 3M Strengthening Recovery momentum intact COST ~$995 $1000.92 Milestone Crossed $1000 level, holding ANF ~$87 $85.14, -24% 3M Weaker Continued grind lower XRT — RSI 27.6 Oversold ETF Broad retail sector under pressure
Key Discoveries Discovery Implication HD + LOW both in extreme oversold simultaneously Home improvement sector at potential entry point; housing headwinds = cyclical opportunity COST crossed $1000, strong-up with golden cross Membership model immunity to retail slowdown confirmed XRT RSI 27.6 — retail ETF oversold Broad-based selling, not just individual names
Open Questions
Is the HD /LOW selloff housing cycle or something structural?
TGT recovery sustainable (+21.5% 3M) with consumer weakening?SHOP : is the 30D bounce a dead cat or genuine reversal setup?
No direct external sources are attached to this read.