LOW $224.93 (RSI 22.4 — extreme oversold, -19.8% 30D). HD $320.68 (RSI 23.5 — extreme oversold, -15.6% 30D). NKE $52.52 (RSI 26.7 — extreme oversold). CMG $33.01 (RSI 36.5, strong-down DC). ANF $87.78 (RSI 43.3, down GC). LULU $162.59 (RSI 38.9, strong-down DC). CROX $75.54 (RSI 31.8, strong-down DC). DECK $99.87 (RSI 34.4, down GC). DPZ $370.17 (RSI 36.1, strong-down DC). WMT $120.32 (RSI 40.0, weak-down GC). TGT $113.04 (RSI 44.6, strong-up GC). COST $976.16 (RSI 45.2, weak-down GC). SBUX $92.65 (RSI 40.4, weak-down GC).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🔴 DISCRETIONARY CAPITULATION — EVEN DEFENSIVES CRACKING — LOW RSI 22.4 and HD RSI 23.5 at extreme oversold with no recovery. NKE RSI 26.7 stuck. COST/TGT/WMT all pulling back from golden crosses. SBUX $92.65 RSI 40.4 — former consumer defensive now breaking. Discretionary vs. staples divergence narrowing as both sell off. |
| Key insight |
LOW $224.93 RSI 22.4, -19.8% 30D — Lowe's deepest oversold in the entire watchlist. HD $320.68 RSI 23.5, -15.6% 30D — home improvement both at historic oversold. TGT $113.04 RSI 44.6 strong-up golden cross — only name with genuine structural health. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Stocks |
Why |
| ✅ BUY |
LOW |
$224.93, RSI 22.4, -19.8% 30D — extreme oversold, best home improvement thesis |
| ✅ BUY |
HD |
$320.68, RSI 23.5, -15.6% 30D — extreme oversold, housing rebound play |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE |
NKE |
$52.52, RSI 26.7 — extreme oversold, long-term compounder |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE |
CMG |
$33.01, RSI 36.5 — fast casual deeply discounted |
| 🔒 HOLD |
TGT |
$113.04, RSI 44.6, strong-up GC — defensive retail leader |
| 🔍 WATCH |
COST |
$976.16, RSI 45.2 — slight pullback from golden cross, still holding |
| 🔍 WATCH |
CROX |
$75.54, RSI 31.8, -24.5% 30D — near oversold entry |
| 🔍 WATCH |
LULU |
$162.59, RSI 38.9 — athleisure deep value |
| ⚠️ CAUTION |
SBUX |
$92.65, RSI 40.4 — former strength now weak-down |
| ⚠️ CAUTION |
WMT |
$120.32, RSI 40.0 — Walmart defensive story softening |
| ⚠️ CAUTION |
DPZ |
$370.17, RSI 36.1, -5.3% 7D — pizza delivery cracking |
Data (Validated 2026-03-20)
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
52wkHi |
RSI |
SMA20 |
vs SMA |
Status |
Action |
| LOW |
$224.93 |
-3.6% |
-19.8% |
-23.3% |
22.4 |
$250.89 |
-10.3% |
🔴 Extreme oversold, down |
✅ Buy |
| HD |
$320.68 |
-3.8% |
-15.6% |
-24.9% |
23.5 |
$354.55 |
-9.6% |
🔴 Extreme oversold, strong-down |
✅ Buy |
| NKE |
$52.52 |
-1.3% |
-19.2% |
-34.5% |
26.7 |
$57.72 |
-9.0% |
🔴 Extreme oversold, strong-down |
📈 Accumulate |
| CROX |
$75.54 |
-1.8% |
-24.5% |
-38.5% |
31.8 |
$84.65 |
-10.8% |
🔴 Strong-down, death cross |
🔍 Watch |
| DECK |
$99.87 |
+3.1% |
-15.9% |
-25.1% |
34.4 |
$108.48 |
-7.9% |
🔴 Down, golden cross |
🔍 Watch |
| DPZ |
$370.17 |
-5.3% |
-3.3% |
-25.8% |
36.1 |
$396.87 |
-6.7% |
🔴 Strong-down, death cross |
⚠️ Caution |
| CMG |
$33.01 |
+1.0% |
-12.1% |
-43.5% |
36.5 |
$35.23 |
-6.3% |
🔴 Strong-down, death cross |
📈 Accumulate |
| LULU |
$162.59 |
+4.7% |
-13.2% |
-53.4% |
38.9 |
$170.30 |
-4.5% |
🔴 Strong-down, death cross |
🔍 Watch |
| ANF |
$87.78 |
+6.8% |
-8.9% |
-34.8% |
43.3 |
$90.33 |
-2.8% |
🟡 Down, golden cross |
🔍 Watch |
| WMT |
$120.32 |
-3.6% |
-2.2% |
-10.8% |
40.0 |
$124.99 |
-3.7% |
🟡 Weak-down, golden cross |
⚠️ Caution |
| TGT |
$113.04 |
-1.3% |
-3.1% |
-4.2% |
44.6 |
$116.91 |
-3.3% |
🟢 Strong-up, golden cross |
🔒 Hold |
| COST |
$976.16 |
-3.4% |
-0.9% |
-8.5% |
45.2 |
$995.50 |
-1.9% |
🟡 Weak-down, golden cross |
🔍 Watch |
| SBUX |
$92.65 |
-4.4% |
-5.0% |
-11.5% |
40.4 |
$97.57 |
-5.0% |
🟡 Weak-down, golden cross |
⚠️ Caution |
Key Changes vs 03/13
| Stock |
03/13 Price |
03/20 Price |
Move |
Note |
| LOW |
$237.64 |
$224.93 |
-5.3% |
RSI 25 → 22.4 — extreme oversold deepening |
| HD |
$339.07 |
$320.68 |
-5.4% |
RSI 29 → 23.5 — entered extreme oversold range |
| SBUX |
$99.15 |
$92.65 |
-6.6% |
RSI 57 → 40.4 — major reversal, defensive story broken |
| DPZ |
$393.32 |
$370.17 |
-5.9% |
RSI 45 → 36.1 — pizza pulling back hard |
| TGT |
$116.73 |
$113.04 |
-3.2% |
RSI 54 → 44.6 — holding best of defensives |
| COST |
$1,000.92 |
$976.16 |
-2.5% |
RSI 55 → 45.2 — slight softening |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| LOW RSI 22.4, HD RSI 23.5 — both extreme oversold |
Home improvement capitulation — housing activity slowdown pricing in |
| SBUX RSI 57 → 40.4 in one week |
Consumer defensive thesis breaking down — no safe haven in discretionary |
| TGT strong-up golden cross vs WMT/COST pulling back |
Target is the cleanest defensive retail name right now |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| SBUX treated as defensive safe haven |
Moderate RSI doesn't mean structural safety — trend analysis matters more |
Open Questions
- LOW + HD both RSI 22-23 — housing activity floor or more downside?
- TGT structural strength — is it specific to Target or broader defensive rotation starting?
- COST below $1,000 — psychological support level meaningful?