Retail sector overview -- home improvement, e-commerce, apparel, food/beverage, general retail. Massive bifurcation: defensive retail (WMT, COST, MCD) surging while growth retail (SHOP, LULU) getting crushed in tech rotation.

Pattern: Both HD and LOW surging in tandem (+12-13% 30D). Housing/home improvement acting as defensive play during tech rotation. RSIs healthy (52-60), not overbought yet -- room to run. Both above SMA20.

Pattern: SHOP is the biggest casualty of the tech rotation in this scan. RSI 15 is historically extreme for a $149B market cap company. Trading 21.8% below its SMA20 and -37% off its 52-week high of $182.19. The selloff is rotation-driven (growth-to-value), not a fundamental breakdown. MACD deeply negative at -10.68 with histogram at -2.79 shows accelerating downside momentum, but RSI 15 signals exhaustion. This is the kind of washout that creates generational entries in quality names.

Key levels: Current $114, support at $110 (psychological), target re-entry zone $108-115. Stop loss at $100.

Pattern: Apparel is split. LULU getting crushed with growth names (-21% 30D, RSI 27 oversold), while value/turnaround plays (DECK +15% 7D bounce, CROX steady) are holding up. ANF had a sharp -15% 30D drop but bouncing hard (+9.4% 7D). DECK's +15% 7D spike looks like an earnings-driven snap-back. NKE flat at the SMA20 -- waiting for the turnaround thesis to play out.

LULU deep dive: RSI 27 is deeply oversold for a premium brand. Trading 10.9% below SMA20. Similar to SHOP, this is rotation damage, not brand deterioration. Entry zone $165-175, stop at $155.

Pattern: Defensive food names leading the charge. MCD RSI 74 approaching overbought -- classic flight-to-safety play. SBUX +12% 30D on turnaround momentum (new CEO effect). CMG/DPZ more neutral, suggesting the rotation is favoring pure-play defensive (MCD, YUM) over fast-casual growth (CMG). DPZ slight weakness (-2.4%) is the outlier.

MCD note: RSI 74 is getting extended. Don't initiate new positions here -- wait for a pullback to $310-315 range.

Pattern: The defensive retail core is the star of the rotation. WMT at 52-week highs (RSI 72), COST nearing the $1,000 milestone (+11.4% 30D), and TGT surging +12.2% in just 7 days. These are the direct beneficiaries of the growth-to-value rotation. TJX is the laggard (flat 30D, RSI 47) -- potential catch-up candidate or signal that off-price isn't catching the same bid.

COST note: $989 approaching the psychological $1,000 level. Expect resistance there. RSI 63 still has room vs WMT's 72.

The core theme of this scan is the growth-to-defensive rotation:

This is a 33-point performance gap between defensive and growth retail in 30 days. History suggests these extreme dislocations mean-revert within 2-3 months.

1. SHOP entry -- RSI 15 is a screaming signal. Scale in at $108-115 range with stop at $100. This is the highest-conviction call in the scan.
2. LULU accumulate -- RSI 27 oversold in premium brand. Start small position $165-175, add on further weakness.
3. Take profits on defensive winners -- WMT RSI 72, MCD RSI 74. Trim 10-15% of positions to lock in gains from the rotation.
4. Watch COST $1,000 breakout -- Psychological resistance level. Breakout above = add, rejection = trim.
5. Monitor ANF -- Bouncing off lows, but needs to hold $100 support. If it dips back to $95-100, accumulate.
6. Research NKE turnaround -- Flat at SMA20, need to assess new leadership strategy before committing capital.
7. Track the spread -- Growth-vs-defensive gap at 33 points is extreme. When this starts closing, it signals rotation reversal. Watch SHOP/WMT ratio.

cd stonks

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