Retail

Update

Retail

Consumer/retail sector. SHOP still at RSI 15 extreme. LULU now RSI 27. WMT/MCD still overbought. Bifurcation deepens.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 BIFURCATED - Defensive retail (WMT, MCD) overbought, growth retail (SHOP, LULU) in freefall
Key insight SHOP RSI 15 STILL extreme oversold. LULU joined at RSI 27. Growth retail capitulation.
Defensives WMT RSI 73↑, MCD RSI 75↑ - overbought, don't chase

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
✅ STRONG BUY SHOP RSI 15↓ extreme, e-commerce leader, -31.4% 30D
✅ BUY LULU RSI 27↓ oversold, -59% from high, entry zone
🔍 RESEARCH NKE RSI 45, turnaround bet, in entry zone
⚠️ AVOID WMT, MCD Overbought (RSI 73-75)

Data (Validated 2026-02-05)

Stock Price 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status Action
HD $387.20 +0.0% +12.5% +4.2% -9.3% 60 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch
LOW $275.85 +0.0% +13.2% +18.2% -2.0% 52 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch
SHOP $114.02 -12.8% -31.4% -30.0% -37.4% 15↓ 🟢 EXTREME ✅ Buy
AS $35.73 -4.3% -7.5% +13.7% -15.6% 42 🟡 Weakening 🔍 Research
LULU $170.09 -4.6% -21.2% +1.7% -59.2% 27↓ 🟢 OVERSOLD ✅ Buy
NKE $64.22 -0.0% -0.5% +4.1% -22.1% 45 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Research
SBUX $96.97 +0.0% +12.0% +17.8% -17.4% 65 🟡 Extended 🔍 Watch
MCD $323.69 +1.3% +7.9% +6.5% -1.0% 75↑ ⚠️ Overbought ⚠️ Avoid
CMG $39.93 +1.9% +4.4% +24.9% -32.4% 46 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch
COST $978.35 +0.0% +11.9% +4.8% -9.3% 61 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch
WMT $128.00 +0.2% +13.6% +26.4% -1.1% 73↑ ⚠️ Overbought ⚠️ Avoid
TGT $114.13 +2.5% +11.8% +25.7% -16.7% 58 🟡 Recovery 🔍 Watch
TJX $153.94 +1.2% +0.1% +7.4% -3.5% 47 🟡 Steady 🔍 Watch
DECK $112.25 -0.9% +3.8% +37.2% -36.8% 62 🟢 Recovery 🔍 Research

Key Positions

SHOP - Shopify (Entry Zone)

Thesis: E-commerce infrastructure leader. AI merchant tools. SMB backbone.

Metric Value
Current $114.02
7D -12.8%
30D -31.4%
RSI 15↓ (EXTREME)
52wk High -37.4%

Analysis:

  • RSI 15 STILL extreme oversold - unchanged from yesterday
  • Still trading at same $114 level as 02/04
  • E-commerce fears overdone - SHOP is the infrastructure, not the retailers
  • AI merchant tools = stickier platform
  • BB lower at $113 = testing absolute technical support
  • This is a screaming entry signal for high conviction

Action: ✅ STRONG BUY at current levels

LULU - Lululemon (NEW: Oversold)

Thesis: Athleisure leader. Men's expansion. International growth.

Metric Value
Current $170.09
Previous $178.00
Entry zone <$180
RSI 27↓ (OVERSOLD)
52wk High -59.2%
Change today -4.5%

Analysis:

  • RSI dropped from 32 to 27 = NOW confirmed oversold
  • -59% from high is capitulation territory for category leader
  • Another -4.5% drop today accelerated the selloff
  • Approaching BB lower ($162.79) = next technical support
  • International expansion runway still intact
  • Valuation getting attractive after this drawdown

Action: ✅ BUY - oversold confirmed, deep in entry zone

WMT - Walmart (Avoid)

Thesis: Consumer strength, AI logistics.

Metric Value
Current $128.00
RSI 73↑ (Overbought)

Analysis:

  • Already bought at $128.08 on 02/03
  • Still overbought at RSI 73
  • Don't add here, wait for pullback

Action: ⚠️ Hold existing, don't add

Entry Zones Status

Stock Entry Zone Current Status
SHOP <$140 $114.02 ✅ DEEP IN ZONE
LULU <$180 $170.09 ✅ DEEP IN ZONE (oversold)
NKE <$65 $64.22 ✅ IN ZONE
AS <$38 $35.73 ✅ IN ZONE

Next Actions

  • Execute SHOP starter position at RSI 15
  • Consider LULU starter position at RSI 27
  • Research NKE turnaround thesis
  • Hold WMT, don't chase at RSI 73
  • Monitor LULU for bounce near BB lower ($162.79)

Commands

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10 events
DateTypeEvent
Feb 5 ScanConsumer Sector Scan Feb 5 ScanRetail Sector Scan Feb 4 UpdateRetail Feb 3 UpdateCandidates - Retail & Consumer Mar 10 ScanRetail Scan Mar 11 ScanRetail Scan Mar 13 ScanRetail Scan Mar 20 ScanRetail Scan Mar 24 ScanRetail Scan Mar 26 ScanRetail Scan

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