raw scansnapshot — prices as of scan date, not live41 rows · screens, not recommendationssuperseded by2026-04-26-defense-contractorsported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-10-defense-contractors.mdscan slugdefense-contractorssource typescan-archive
Defense sector consolidating after massive 3M rally (+37.9% LMT, +31.7% NOC, +25.2% LHX) with all names pulling back from highs this week; BA is the lone laggard at RSI 37 and -7.8% 30D while the rest hold healthy RSI 50-56 range — sector ETFs (ITA, PPA) flat near SMA20.
Quick Snapshot
Signal
Reading
Overall
🟢 HEALTHY CONSOLIDATION — Sector up massively on 3M basis (defense spending tailwinds), now digesting gains near SMA20s. RSI 50-56 band across primes = textbook healthy pullback. BA remains the outlier weak link.
BA (RSI 37, -7.8% 30D, -6.1% below SMA20) — Boeing the clear laggard, trading at $217.76 vs SMA20 of $231.90. While the rest of defense rallied +17-38% on 3M, BA managed only +8.5% and is now giving back gains. Still -14.4% from 52-week high. Boeing's execution issues (737 MAX quality, Starliner) keep it in penalty box while peers benefit from the same geopolitical tailwinds. The -3.1% 7D and -7.8% 30D show sustained selling pressure, not just a blip.
Neutral (RSI 40-55) — Holding Ground
GD (RSI 50, +2.7% 30D, +4.6% 3M) — General Dynamics is the weakest of the prime group with the smallest 3M rally. At $355.59, sitting right on SMA20 ($353.99). The +4.6% 3M vs LMT's +37.9% is a massive underperformance gap — Gulfstream business jet exposure may be weighing vs pure defense plays. DFEN (RSI 49, +9.7% 30D, +43.4% 3M) — 3x leveraged defense ETF amplifying the sector story. The -8.2% 7D pullback is just 3x math on the underlying -2.5% average prime pullback. ITA (RSI 51, +3.8% 30D) and PPA (RSI 51, +3.2% 30D) — Both sector ETFs sitting right at their SMA20s, confirming the sector-wide consolidation pattern.
Healthy (RSI 55-60) — Sector Leaders
LMT (RSI 55, +4.1% 30D, +37.9% 3M, -5.9% from high) — Lockheed Martin, the sector bellwether, sitting exactly on SMA20. The +37.9% 3M rally reflects defense spending acceleration and geopolitical premium. Now digesting at RSI 55 — textbook healthy consolidation. RTX (RSI 56, +5.7% 30D, +17.1% 3M, -3.5% from high) — Raytheon closest to 52-week highs of any name (-3.5%) and holding above SMA20 (+2.0%). Strongest relative position in the group. NOC (RSI 56, +8.6% 30D, +31.7% 3M, -5.0% from high) — Northrop Grumman with the best 30D performance in the group at +8.6%. Above SMA20 by +1.5%, clean uptrend. LHX (RSI 55, +6.7% 30D, +25.2% 3M, -4.6% from high) — L3Harris tracking the leaders, +1.8% above SMA20. Solid momentum.
Entry Zones
Stock
Entry Zone
Thesis
🔍 BA
$200-$220
RSI 37, weakest name at -6.1% below SMA20. Boeing's execution risk keeps it cheap — if 737 MAX quality stabilizes, significant upside vs peers. High risk/reward.
📈 GD
$340-$355
RSI 50, lagging peers (+4.6% 3M vs +17-38%). Gulfstream drag may ease. If defense rotation broadens, GD catches up.
📈 LMT
$630-$655
RSI 55, sitting on SMA20 after +37.9% 3M rally. Healthy pullback entry for sector bellwether.
📈 NOC
$710-$740
RSI 56, above SMA20 after +31.7% 3M. Best 30D momentum (+8.6%) in the group.
RSI 37, only defense name approaching oversold. Execution risk is real but it's trading at a major discount to sector momentum. Deep dive needed on 737 MAX quality trajectory.
RSI 49, 3x leverage on a sector that just rallied +15-38% 3M. Risk/reward poor for new entries — leverage decay and pullback amplification.
What Changed (vs previous scan)
Change
Detail
NEW ETFs: ITA, PPA, DFEN
Added sector benchmarks — ITA and PPA both RSI 51 at SMA20 confirm sector-wide consolidation pattern. DFEN shows 3x amplification of both the +43.4% 3M rally and the -8.2% 7D pullback.
Sector consolidating, not rolling over
All prime contractors RSI 50-56, near SMA20s. This is healthy digestion after a massive Q4/Q1 rally, not distribution.
BA diverging further
RSI 37, only name below RSI 40. The -7.8% 30D while peers are +3-9% 30D shows Boeing-specific headwinds, not sector weakness.
GD lagging significantly
+4.6% 3M vs LMT +37.9%, NOC +31.7% — GD's commercial aerospace (Gulfstream) exposure diluting the defense premium.
RTX closest to highs
Only -3.5% from 52-week high, strongest relative position. Missile/radar demand driving outperformance.
Key Discoveries
Discovery
Implication
Entire prime contractor group (LMT, RTX, NOC, LHX) in tight RSI 55-56 band at/above SMA20
Coordinated healthy consolidation — sector moving as a unit on defense spending thesis. Broad sector conviction, not single-stock driven.
BA RSI 37 is the lone outlier in an otherwise healthy sector
Boeing-specific execution risk, not defense sector weakness. Could be a contrarian entry if quality issues resolve, or a value trap if they don't.
GD +4.6% 3M vs sector avg +25-38% 3M
Gulfstream commercial exposure is a drag — GD is a hybrid defense/commercial play. Pure defense names getting the full geopolitical premium.
ITA and PPA both at RSI 51, exactly at SMA20
ETFs confirm the consolidation thesis. Clean technical setup for sector-level entries.
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
Mistake
Lesson
Previous scan lacked ETF benchmarks
ITA, PPA, DFEN now included — essential for gauging sector-level momentum vs individual stock moves.
Open Questions
BA at RSI 37 — is this a contrarian defense entry or a permanent discount for execution risk? 737 MAX quality trajectory is the key variable.
GD lagging by 20-30% on 3M basis — will defense rotation broaden to include Gulfstream-heavy names, or is the pure-defense premium structural?
Defense spending cycle — how much of the +25-38% 3M rally is already priced in? NATO spending increases, geopolitical tensions — what's the next catalyst?
DFEN at +43.4% 3M — are retail traders crowding into leveraged defense? Flows data would help gauge sentiment risk.