Defense sector in healthy consolidation after monster 3M rally — LMT +37.4%, NOC +31.5%, LHX +25.2%, RTX +17.1% — with primes holding RSI 48-56 and golden crosses intact across the board. BA remains the lone weak link at RSI 37 and -7.8% 30D. Sector ETFs flat near SMA20. The geopolitical premium is real and sustained, not just a one-week spike.

The Iran crisis and Strait of Hormuz disruption have created a sustained defense spending premium. Every major defense contractor benefits from:

1. Replenishment demand — missile and munitions inventories being drawn down need restocking
2. Supplemental defense budgets — crisis-driven spending bypasses normal budget cycles
3. Allied re-armament — NATO partners accelerating procurement from US primes
4. Missile defense upgrades — Patriot/THAAD systems in massive demand

Rank order of beneficiaries:

• NOC (+31.5% 3M, +8.5% 30D) — Best current momentum. B-21 bomber, nuclear submarines, missile defense. Most pure-play defense of the group.
• LMT (+37.4% 3M) — Biggest 3M winner. F-35, missile systems (Javelin, HIMARS, PAC-3). The sector bellwether.
• LHX (+25.2% 3M) — Communications, electronic warfare, ISR platforms. Benefits from every conflict scenario.
• RTX (+17.1% 3M, -3.5% from high) — Closest to 52-week high. Patriot missiles, Pratt & Whitney engines. Strong but dual-use commercial exposure.
• GD (+4.0% 3M) — Massive underperformer. Gulfstream business jet drag. Combat vehicles (Abrams tanks) less relevant to current crisis than missile/air assets.
• BA (+8.5% 3M, -7.8% 30D) — Execution problems (737 MAX, Starliner) overshadowing defense unit benefits. Defense revenue is only ~30% of Boeing.

BA (RSI 37, -7.8% 30D, -6.1% below SMA20, -7.2% below SMA50) — Boeing is the sector's problem child. While every other prime rallied +17-37% on 3M, BA managed only +8.5% and is now giving it back. The down trend and -14.4% from 52-week high tell the story: execution risk (737 MAX quality, Starliner delays) is overwhelming the defense spending tailwind. BA is below both SMA20 and SMA50 — the only prime in that position.

GD (RSI 48, +2.2% 30D, +4.0% 3M) — General Dynamics is the weakest healthy prime, sitting exactly on SMA20 but slightly below SMA50 (-0.3%). The +4.0% 3M vs peers at +17-37% is a massive underperformance gap. Gulfstream business jet exposure is the anchor — not a pure defense play.

LMT (RSI 54, +3.7% 30D, +37.4% 3M) — Lockheed just below SMA20 (-0.8%) after the biggest 3M rally in the group. Still +7.7% above SMA50 with golden cross. Classic healthy digestion of a major move.

DFEN (RSI 49, +9.7% 30D, +43.4% 3M) — 3x leveraged ETF amplifying everything. The -8.2% 7D is just 3x math on the underlying pullback. At -13.2% from high, leverage decay is visible.

RTX (RSI 56, +5.7% 30D, -3.5% from high) — Closest to 52-week highs in the group. Above SMA20 by +1.7%, above SMA50 by +4.6%. Strongest relative position.

NOC (RSI 56, +8.5% 30D, +31.5% 3M) — Best 30D momentum. Above SMA20 (+1.0%), above SMA50 (+8.1%). The pure defense play is outperforming.

LHX (RSI 55, +6.7% 30D, +25.2% 3M) — Tracking the leaders cleanly. Above both moving averages. Electronic warfare and ISR demand supporting.

• Will BA's defense unit results eventually override commercial problems?
• Is GD's underperformance a buying opportunity or structural (Gulfstream secular decline)?
• How long can the war premium sustain 25-37% 3M gains before mean reversion?
• Does defense spending stay elevated even if Iran crisis de-escalates?

Scan generated: 2026-03-11 | Data: pre-computed summaries with RSI, SMA20/50/200, trend signals. All numbers from defense-contractors.json.