MARKET CONTEXT: SPY $668.83 (-1.8% 30D, RSI 37) | QQQ $600.01 (-0.1% 30D, RSI 44) | VIXY $32.46 (+16.3% 30D, RSI 60) | GLD $470.67 (+4.3% 30D, RSI 53)
REGIME: STAGFLATION DEEPENING. Oil parabolic (USO RSI 84, +51.8% 30D), housing in free fall (ITB RSI 22, XHB RSI 24), financials cracking (XLF RSI 29, -5.4% 30D), and bonds NOT rallying alongside risk-off — gold is the only safe haven working. Life sciences tools cluster capitulation (MDT RSI 23, DHR RSI 24, A RSI 27, TMO RSI 28). Consumer discretionary in coordinated breakdown. 153 monsters on scan but dominated by energy/commodities — everything else is selling. NET held position at RSI 72.5 — overbought but strongest cloud name in a sea of death crosses.
Entry Zones (IN ZONE NOW)
EXTREME OVERSOLD (RSI < 20) — Capitulation Territory
| Stock |
Current |
Zone |
RSI |
30D Chg |
Source |
Action |
Notes |
| MDT |
$87.82 |
$86–$94 |
22 |
-12.95% |
biotech-scan, holdings, deep-dive |
✅ Accumulate |
HELD POSITION (-9.9%). RSI 22.3, deepest in biotech tools cluster. Only 5.8% above $83 stop. Dividend aristocrat + PFA +80% growth intact. Near bottom of entry zone. $79 hard stop per deep dive. |
OVERSOLD (RSI 20–30) — Strong Entry Zone
| Stock |
Current |
Zone |
RSI |
30D Chg |
Source |
Action |
Notes |
| DHR |
$187.98 |
$185–$200 |
24 |
-12.5% |
biotech-scan |
✅ Strong Buy |
NEW. Life sciences instruments leader at RSI 24. Cluster capitulation — NIH/tariff fears. When DHR hits RSI 24, historically a strong entry. Quality compounder. |
| ITB |
$93.19 |
$88–$95 |
22 |
-17.1% |
market-pulse, macro-commodities |
✅ Strong Buy |
NEW (updated). Housing ETF full capitulation — RSI 22, -17.1% 30D. -11.5% below SMA20. Contrarian play, needs oil reversal catalyst. Tight stop. |
| PPC |
$36.05 |
— |
26 |
-13.5% |
defensive-scan |
❌ Avoid |
AVOID. Death cross + -31.9% from high. Broken trend, not a bounce setup. |
| LOW |
$241.93 |
$235–$250 |
27 |
-15.3% |
retail-scan, defensive-scan |
✅ Strong Buy |
UPDATED (was RSI 27 est). Golden cross structural positive still intact. -15.3% 30D is severe. Near SMA200 support ($244). Home improvement at cyclical low. |
| NKE |
$54.42 |
$50–$55 |
26 |
-10.4% |
bargain-bin, consumer-scan |
📈 Accumulate |
UPDATED from RSI 29. Now RSI 26, -18.8% 3M. Death cross, -18.1% below SMA200. Tiny starter only — turnaround under maximum stress. Stop below $50. |
| VMC |
$265.03 |
$258–$270 |
28 |
-17.5% |
ai-infra |
✅ Strong Buy |
UPDATED from RSI 30. Now RSI 27.6 — deepest oversold in infrastructure. Aggregates/materials critical for data center construction. Contrarian entry. |
| XHB |
$100.87 |
$95–$105 |
24 |
-15.3% |
market-pulse, macro-commodities |
📈 Accumulate |
UPDATED. Homebuilder ETF at RSI 24. Diversified housing capitulation play alongside ITB. -10.7% below SMA20. |
| A |
$111.94 |
$108–$115 |
27 |
-10.4% |
biotech-scan |
✅ Strong Buy |
UPDATED from RSI 31. Now RSI 27 — Agilent tracking DHR lower. Lab instruments in sector-wide de-rating. Quality franchise -28% from high. |
| TMO |
$476.70 |
$460–$490 |
28 |
-6.5% |
biotech-scan, bargain-bin |
📈 Accumulate |
UPDATED. Thermo Fisher RSI 28, -26% from high. Life sciences tools leader. No insider buying yet — patience. Historically rewarded at RSI 27-29. |
| HD |
$341.42 |
$325–$350 |
29 |
-12.5% |
retail-scan, defensive-scan |
📈 Accumulate |
UPDATED from RSI 34. Now RSI 29, death cross. Home Depot approaching capitulation. Long-term compounder. Housing headwinds cyclical, not structural. DCA slowly. |
APPROACHING OVERSOLD (RSI 30–40) — Watch Closely
| Stock |
Current |
Zone |
RSI |
30D Chg |
Source |
Action |
Notes |
| AS |
$32.80 |
— |
31 |
-14.85% |
holdings, consumer-scan |
⚠️ WARNING |
HELD POSITION (-9.2%). RSI 31, only 6.8% above $30.71 stop. -14.85% 30D accelerating. DO NOT ADD. Let stop work. |
| MLM |
$591.33 |
$580–$600 |
30 |
-10.3% |
ai-infra |
📈 Accumulate |
UPDATED from RSI 33. Now RSI 29.7. Martin Marietta — construction materials for AI infrastructure. Same thesis as VMC. |
| XLF |
$48.91 |
$47–$50 |
29 |
-5.4% |
market-pulse |
📈 Accumulate |
NEW. Financials sector ETF oversold at RSI 29. -5.4% 30D, -4.6% below SMA20. Cyclical recovery play if rates stabilize. |
| CMG |
$32.83 |
$30–$33 |
29 |
-8.4% |
consumer-scan |
🔍 Watch |
NEW. Death cross, -42.2% from 52wk high. First time at RSI 28.7 — approaching capitulation. Wait for stabilization above 30 first. Value trap risk. |
| BNTX |
$88.80 |
$85–$92 |
33 |
-16.0% |
biotech-scan, bargain-bin |
🔍 Research |
UPDATED from RSI 23 (05/11). Now RSI 33.3 — some recovery. -32% from 52wk high. mRNA portfolio transition. Pipeline pivot thesis — cash provides floor. |
| LULU |
$160.16 |
$155–$165 |
32 |
-5.5% |
bargain-bin, consumer-scan |
🔍 Watch |
UPDATED. RSI 31.5, death cross, -54% from ATH. Long turnaround runway. Multiple reset ongoing. Watch for RSI <30. |
| QCOM |
$131.50 |
$125–$135 |
31 |
-4.4% |
bargain-bin |
🔍 Watch |
RETURNING. RSI 31.4, -25.8% 3M. Mobile AI/auto moats but ARM competition risk. Speculative — small size only. |
| ECL |
$277.20 |
$270–$282 |
32 |
-7.8% |
defensive-scan, ai-infra |
🔍 Watch |
UPDATED from RSI 35. Now RSI 31.7. Ecolab approaching interesting zone. Golden cross intact. |
| TEL |
$198.74 |
$192–$205 |
34 |
-11.6% |
ai-infra |
🔍 Watch |
UPDATED. Connectors in deeper oversold. -10.3% below SMA20. Data center interconnect demand support. |
| ASAN |
$6.97 |
$6.50–$7.50 |
33 |
-7.4% |
bargain-bin, insider |
📈 Accumulate |
RETURNING. ONLY bargain bin stock with insider buying (+$8.3M). -51.9% 3M. Closest to golden signal. High risk, speculative. |
| V |
$306.78 |
$300–$310 |
34 |
-5.4% |
bargain-bin |
🔍 Watch |
NEW. Payment monopoly at rare oversold. Death cross present. Build position on long-term horizon. |
| MA |
$498.33 |
$490–$510 |
34 |
-5.5% |
bargain-bin |
🔍 Watch |
NEW. Same thesis as V. Mastercard quality franchise being indiscriminately sold. -12.7% 3M. |
| INDA |
$48.68 |
$47–$50 |
24 |
-8.3% |
macro-commodities |
🔍 Watch |
UPDATED from RSI 30. Now RSI 23.5 — deeper oversold. India oil importer + strong dollar double pain. Falling knife. |
| TSLA |
$399.93 |
$380–$400 |
44 |
-4.1% |
insider-scan |
🔍 Watch |
RETURNING. RSI recovered to 44 (was 48 → tested SMA200 at $393). +$191M insider buying. Golden cross intact. Not oversold but accumulation signal. Wait for re-test of $393 SMA200. |
| NVO |
$38.11 |
— |
33 |
-22.1% |
biotech-scan |
❌ Avoid |
RETURNING. Structural decline — -53% from high. Death cross. GLP-1 competitive pressure ongoing. Not a bounce candidate. |
| DECK |
$102.39 |
$98–$105 |
33 |
-11.8% |
retail-scan, consumer |
🔍 Watch |
UPDATED. Golden cross intact; Hoka brand thesis. Watch $100 support. Near oversold. |
| IQV |
$165.12 |
$155–$175 |
50 |
-2.2% |
holdings, deep-dive |
🔍 Watch |
HELD POSITION (+0.3%). RSI divergence (RSI rising while price fell) — mild positive signal. But -7.5% 7D still weak. Wait for $165 to hold multiple days. 17.9% above $140 stop. |
Price Alerts (Waiting for Entry)
| Stock |
Alert |
Entry Zone |
Source |
Set Date |
Status |
| ARM |
$110–118, RSI < 35 |
Below SMA200, death cross |
nvda-ecosystem |
2026-02-16 |
⏳ Watching — above range, RSI recovered. |
| NVDA |
$175–178, RSI < 35 |
Dead neutral at SMA20/50 |
nvda-ecosystem |
2026-02-22 |
⏳ Watching — $184.12, RSI 50. Not in zone. |
| TSM |
$330–345 |
Foundry monopoly, secular bull |
nvda-ecosystem |
2026-02-16 |
⏳ Watching — $339.35, RSI 49. Near bottom of range. |
| ASML |
$1,280–1,350 |
EUV monopoly below SMA20 |
ai-scan |
2026-03-03 |
⏳ Watching — above range. |
| MRVL |
$80–88 after pullback |
+15.4% 7D, don't chase |
ai-infra |
2026-03-03 |
⏳ Waiting — RSI extended. Wait for pullback. |
| CEG |
$285–300, RSI < 50 |
Nuclear AI power, weak-up |
ai-infra |
2026-02-26 |
⏳ Watching — $308.17, RSI 50. Above range. |
| GOOGL |
$295–308 |
Secular monster, weak-down |
monster-scan |
2026-03-03 |
⏳ IN ZONE — $303.56, RSI (est) ~45. Watching. |
| DDOG pullback |
$115–$120 |
V-shaped recovery needs consolidation |
cloud-etfs |
2026-03-10 |
⏳ Waiting — above range. |
| NET pullback |
$195–$205 on dip |
RSI 72.5, +20% position, overbought |
cloud-etfs, holdings |
2026-03-10 |
⏳ POSITION HELD. NET now overbought. Do NOT chase. Trim target at $231. |
| INTU pullback |
$440–$450 |
Strong-down, death cross |
cloud-etfs |
2026-03-10 |
⏳ Watching — $440.65, near zone. Death cross still active. |
| ISRG |
<$480, RSI < 35 |
Surgical robotics monopoly |
bargain-bin, biotech |
2026-03-11 |
⏳ IN ZONE — $478.70, RSI 37.8. Approaching entry. |
| RKLB |
<$70, RSI < 40 |
Golden cross, secular monster |
monster-scan |
2026-03-11 |
⏳ Watching — $70.30, RSI 49. Near threshold. |
| CRSP |
$45–$52 |
Gene editing, +$28M insider buying |
insider-scan, biotech |
2026-03-11 |
⏳ IN ZONE — $48.87, RSI 39.4. -13.9% 7D flush. Insider buying confirmed. |
| GLD |
$455–$475 |
Safe haven + golden cross + RSI 53 |
macro-commodities |
2026-03-12 |
⏳ IN ZONE — $470.67, RSI 53. Steady accumulation setup. NEW. |
| GDX |
$95–$100 |
Miners lagging gold ~15% — catch-up trade |
macro-commodities |
2026-03-12 |
⏳ IN ZONE — $99.64, RSI 44. Miner/metal divergence. NEW. |
Exit Alerts (Holdings)
| Stock |
Alert |
Type |
Entry |
Current |
P&L |
Set Date |
Status |
| MDT |
$83 (raised from $83) |
Stop-loss |
$97.49 |
$87.82 |
-9.9% |
— |
🔴 CRITICAL — RSI 22.3, only 5.8% above stop. Active sustained selling. Deep dive confirms entry zone but stop is real. Let stop work. Deep dive stop at $79. |
| AS |
$30.71 |
Stop-loss |
$36.13 |
$32.80 |
-9.2% |
— |
🔴 ALERT — RSI 31, only 6.8% above stop. -14.85% 30D, -8.0% 7D. Accelerating. DO NOT ADD. |
| NET |
$185 (raised from $180) |
Stop-loss |
$177.38 |
$212.78 |
+20.0% |
2026-01-26 |
🟢 Strong — RSI 72.5, +10.9% 7D. Only $18 from +30% target ($231). Overbought. Raise stop to $185. Insider selling (-$741.8M) is a caution flag. Consider partial at $231. |
| IQV |
$140 |
Stop-loss (-15%) |
$164.63 |
$165.12 |
+0.3% |
— |
🟡 Weakening — RSI 50 (RSI/price divergence). -7.5% 7D. 17.9% above stop. RSI rising while price fell = possible seller exhaustion. |
| PLTR |
$119 |
Stop-loss (-15%) |
$140.04 |
$154.74 |
+10.5% |
— |
🟢 Healthy — RSI 57. +19.8% 30D. 30.0% above stop. Insider selling -$3.7B is headwind. |
| SHOP |
$95 |
Stop-loss (-15%) |
$112.39 |
$126.83 |
+12.9% |
— |
🟢 Healthy — RSI 49. +14.6% 30D. 33.5% above stop. Death cross — watch structural trend. |
| VOO |
— |
Core position |
$628.94 |
$615.13 |
-2.2% |
— |
🟡 Softening. RSI 37. DCA only. Not selling core. |
| WMT |
$108.86 |
Stop-loss (-15%) |
$128.07 |
$124.48 |
-2.8% |
2026-02-03 |
🟡 Below entry. 14.3% above stop. Golden cross intact, -6.9% 30D. |
| AMZN |
— |
Core hold |
$204.53 |
$210.18 |
+2.8% |
— |
🟡 Above entry. RSI 44. Death cross (-$10.9B insider selling). Watch. |
| CRM |
— |
Watch |
$190.96 |
$199.83 |
+4.6% |
— |
🟡 Above entry. RSI 50, death cross. -25.9% 3M. Monthly recovery in place. |
| BTC |
— |
Hold |
$40.05 (GBTC) |
$31.15 |
-22.2% |
— |
🔴 Deep underwater. +7.75% 30D partial recovery. Small allocation (2%). |
Sector Rotation Signals
| Signal |
Trigger |
What It Means |
Status |
| Oil shock parabolic |
USO RSI 84, +51.8% 30D |
Iran/Hormuz crisis driving entire cross-asset rotation. Do NOT chase. |
🔴 ACTIVE — DO NOT CHASE |
| Housing capitulation |
ITB RSI 22, XHB RSI 24, -15-17% 30D |
Deepest housing oversold in years. Contrarian entry forming but oil reversal needed. |
🟢 ACTIVE — Entry zone forming |
| Life sciences tools cluster capitulation |
MDT RSI 23, DHR RSI 24, A RSI 27, TMO RSI 28 |
All four simultaneously oversold. Sector-wide de-rating — NIH/tariff/macro. Best entry in tools in years. |
🟢 NEW — High conviction entry zone |
| Financials cracking |
XLF RSI 29, -5.4% 30D |
Banks breaking down faster than broad market. Structural or cyclical? Watch for systemic signal. |
🔴 NEW — Emerging risk |
| Gold safe haven working |
GLD RSI 53, +4.3% 30D, +21% 3M |
THE safe haven. Bonds NOT rallying (TLT RSI 39). Stagflation signal confirmed. |
🟢 ACTIVE — Add on dips |
| SaaS/cloud structural repricing |
Death crosses dominating, NET lone exception |
Not a dip — sector-wide repricing. TEAM -52.9% 3M, MDB -26.5% 30D, WDAY -39.4% 3M. |
🔴 ACTIVE — Avoid catching knives |
| Defense consolidation |
LMT +36.9%, NOC/GD golden crosses |
War premium structural, +15-37% 3M. Healthy consolidation at RSI 45-56. |
🟢 ACTIVE — Accumulate on dips |
| AI infra two-speed market |
LITE +94.9%, FIX +42.9%, VRT +67% 3M vs SMR -78.9%, OKLO -68.6% |
Physical infra (fiber, cooling, data centers) winning; speculative nuclear wrecked. |
🟢 ACTIVE — Hold leaders, avoid spec |
| Optical/AI networking surge |
AAOI RSI 70, LITE RSI 53, CIEN RSI 59, COHR RSI 51 |
Optical connectivity parabolic on AI traffic demand. All 60%+ above SMA200. |
🟠 ACTIVE — Hold, do not chase |
| Consumer capitulation |
NKE RSI 26, CMG RSI 29, XLY RSI 33 |
Consumer discretionary under maximum stress. Payment duopoly (V/MA) oversold simultaneously. |
🔴 ACTIVE — Selective entries only |
| Stagflation confirmed |
USO +51.8%, COPX -7.9%, WEAT +8.1%, TLT -2.1% |
Cost-push squeeze + growth deterioration + bonds failing safe-haven role. |
🔴 ACTIVE — Defensive posture |
Insider Activity Summary
| Signal |
Stocks |
Implication |
| 🏆 ZERO GOLDEN SIGNALS |
None — closest: ASAN (RSI 33 + buying) |
Third consecutive scan. No RSI<30 + insider buying. Smart money NOT buying capitulation. |
| 🟢 BUYING |
TSLA (+$191.3M), CRSP (+$28M), ASAN (+$8.3M) |
Only 3 names with net buying. ASAN closest to golden. CRSP buying into -13.9% weekly flush. |
| 🔴 SELLING INTO DIP |
ZM (-$210M at RSI 35), EOSE (-$22M at RSI 31) |
Classic value trap signals — insiders abandoning oversold positions. AVOID both. |
| 🔴 HEAVY SELLING |
AMZN (-$10.9B), LLY (-$4.8B), PLTR (-$3.7B), NVDA (-$3.1B), NFLX (-$1.3B), NET (-$741.8M) |
Mega-cap distribution broadening. NET insiders trimming into the breakout is a caution. |
| 🔴 POSTURE |
49 of 59 stocks show net selling |
Persistent bearish insider posture. No capitulation buy signal from smart money. |
Pending Research Actions
| Action |
Source |
Priority |
Status |
| MDT stop watch — RSI 22, 5.8% from $83 stop |
holdings, deep-dive |
CRITICAL |
⏳ Active — Let stop work. Deep dive suggests $79 as hard stop with entry zone $86-94. Near bottom of zone. |
| AS stop watch — RSI 31, 6.8% from $30.71 stop |
holdings, consumer-scan |
CRITICAL |
⏳ Active — -14.85% 30D accelerating. Golden cross structural positive but cannot override stop discipline. |
| NET raise stop to $185, evaluate partial at $231 |
holdings, deep-dive |
HIGH |
⏳ Action needed — RSI 72.5 overbought, +20% position. Deep dive recommends $185 stop. Target $231 = $18 away. |
| Research DHR RSI 24 — life sciences tools entry |
biotech-scan |
HIGH |
⏳ Todo — Cluster capitulation with MDT/TMO/A. Best of the four for new entry — no held position overhang. |
| Research V/MA at RSI 34 — payment duopoly entry |
bargain-bin |
HIGH |
⏳ Todo — Both simultaneously oversold, rare setup. Death crosses present. 12-month thesis vs near-term risk. |
| Research BNTX RSI 33 — pipeline update |
biotech-scan, bargain-bin |
HIGH |
⏳ Ongoing — -32% from 52wk high. Cancer vaccine pipeline is the thesis. Cash floor. |
| Monitor IQV RSI/price divergence |
holdings, deep-dive |
MEDIUM |
⏳ Active — RSI rising while price fell today. Positive divergence. Wait for $165 to hold multiple days. |
| Research VMC/MLM simultaneous capitulation |
ai-infra |
MEDIUM |
⏳ Todo — Infrastructure materials both at RSI 27-30. Is this sector rotation or capex slowdown signal? |
| Research CMG RSI 29 — value trap vs entry |
consumer-scan |
MEDIUM |
⏳ Todo — First time at near-capitulation. Death cross makes this a falling knife. Need RSI stabilization >30. |
| Research MDB -26.5% 30D crash |
bargain-bin |
MEDIUM |
⏳ Ongoing — No insider buying. Distinguish earnings miss vs structural cloud pullback. |
| Watch AMZN death cross + insider selling |
holdings |
MEDIUM |
⏳ Active — -$10.9B insider selling continues. Death cross intact. SMA200 support is key. |
| Monitor SHOP trailing stop |
holdings |
MEDIUM |
⏳ Watching — +12.9% position. Death cross is structural caution. Consider raising stop toward $107-110. |
| Add IDXX to a watchlist |
ideas |
LOW |
⏳ Todo — RSI 34, -15.4% 3M. No summary data available. |
| Research INDA RSI 23.5 — India oversold |
macro-commodities |
LOW |
⏳ Monitoring — India oil importer + strong dollar double pain. Wait for stabilization. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Life sciences tools (MDT RSI 23, DHR RSI 24, A RSI 27, TMO RSI 28) — all four simultaneously |
Cluster capitulation is the highest-conviction entry theme in the market today. NIH/tariff/macro fears, not company implosions. |
| TLT RSI 39 while USO RSI 84 and GLD RSI 53 |
The traditional bond safe-haven is broken this cycle. Gold IS the safe haven. Stagflation confirmed: oil up, bonds down, equities weak. |
| XLF RSI 29 breaking faster than SPY (-1.8% 30D) |
Financials cracking disproportionately — watch for systemic signal. This divergence was not present in prior week. |
| V and MA simultaneously at RSI 34 |
Payment duopoly oversold together — rare structural setup for long-term builders. Death crosses add near-term risk. |
| Housing (ITB RSI 22, XHB RSI 24) at deepest oversold since 2022 rate shock |
Either the best contrarian entry in the market or a leading indicator of economic slowdown. Oil reversal = housing bounce. |
| NET RSI 72.5 with -$741.8M insider selling |
Position winning (+20%) but insiders trimming into the breakout. Raise stop to $185, take partial at $231. |
| 153 monsters on scan — dominated by energy/commodities |
USO +51.8%, CF +44.6%, OXY +30.0%, CNQ +20.8%. This is the oil shock in data form. All parabolic — do NOT chase. |
| ZERO golden signals for third consecutive scan |
Smart money is NOT buying this capitulation. Most bearish insider posture in months. Implies bottom may not be in. |
| VMC RSI 27.6 + MLM RSI 29.7 simultaneously |
Infrastructure materials are the overlooked oversold play — the pick-and-shovel input to AI data center construction. |
Sources
19 sector scans and 1 holdings file, both dated 2026-03-12, plus 26 deep-dive files. OHLC cross-checked against validated daily summaries (summaries). Previous actions: 2026-03-11-actions.md (archived).