← all events raw scan snapshot Mar 20, 2026 — prices as of scan date, not live 48 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-04-26-consumer-scan ported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-20-consumer-scan.md scan slugconsumer-scan source typescan-archive
Consumer is a sea of red — NKE and XLY in capitulation territory while SBUX has lost its strong-up perch; HIMS faded from post-catalyst highs but holds above SMA20.
Quick Snapshot Signal Reading Overall 🔴 BEARISH — Broad consumer deterioration; nearly every name in strong-down or death cross; no clear leader left Leaders HIMS ($23.10, +47.8% 30D, above SMA20), SBUX ($92.65, golden cross intact, +8.2% 3M) Laggards NKE ($52.52, RSI 26.7, -19.2% 30D, death cross), XLY ($107.71, RSI 27.8, -8.3% 30D), CROX ($75.54, -24.5% 30D, death cross)
Price Table (Validated 2026-03-20) Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% Trend HIMS $23.10 54.5 +16.2% -1.7% +47.8% -34.1% strong-down SBUX $92.65 40.4 -5.0% -4.4% -5.0% +8.2% weak-down PYPL $43.68 41.2 -4.3% -2.1% +5.2% -26.8% strong-down DPZ $370.17 36.1 -6.7% -5.3% -3.3% -13.1% strong-down CMG $33.01 36.5 -6.3% +1.0% -12.1% -13.0% strong-down DECK $99.87 34.4 -7.9% +3.2% -15.9% -2.0% down LULU $162.59 38.9 -4.5% +4.7% -13.2% -23.4% strong-down AS $30.99 29.2 -12.1% +0.9% -26.1% -18.7% down CROX $75.54 31.8 -10.8% -1.8% -24.5% -15.0% strong-down NKE $52.52 26.7 -9.0% -1.3% -19.2% -7.6% strong-down XLY $107.71 27.8 -5.5% -1.9% -8.3% -12.0% down
Tier Analysis Extreme Oversold (RSI < 30) — Capitulation Territory Stock Price RSI 30D% Notes NKE $52.52 26.7 ↓ -19.2% Death cross, -20.7% below SMA200. Turnaround thesis under severe stress. -34.5% from 52wk high. XLY $107.71 27.8 ↓ -8.3% Sector ETF confirms broad consumer capitulation — no tailwind for any discretionary name. AS $30.99 29.2 ↓ -26.1% Golden cross (structural positive) but -14.9% below SMA200. Unusual divergence.
Oversold (RSI 30–40) — Watch Zone Stock Price RSI 30D% Notes CROX $75.54 31.8 -24.5% Death cross, -14.5% below SMA200. Post-earnings gap fully reversed and then some. DECK $99.87 34.4 -15.9% Golden cross intact despite selling; Hoka/UGG brand thesis holds but momentum broken. DPZ $370.17 36.1 -3.3% Death cross, -12.6% below SMA200, -25.8% from 52wk high. Franchise model under pressure. CMG $33.01 36.5 -12.1% Death cross, -19.3% below SMA200, -43.5% from 52wk high. Value trap risk. LULU $162.59 38.9 -13.2% Death cross, -53.4% from ATH — multi-year turnaround required.
Neutral (RSI 40–60) — No Urgency Stock Price RSI Notes SBUX $92.65 40.4 Downgraded from strong-up to weak-down — golden cross intact but losing momentum. +8.2% 3M still best in space. PYPL $43.68 41.2 -30.4% below SMA200. Death cross. Only +5.2% 30D barely a blip vs structural damage. HIMS $23.10 54.5 Post-catalyst fade from $25. -44.2% below SMA200 (long-term structural damage). Still above SMA20.
Entry Zones Stock Zone RSI Action Notes NKE $50–$53 26.7 ↓ 📈 Accumulate (tiny) Deep capitulation; turnaround in jeopardy but RSI at historic lows. Tiny size only. Stop $49. AS $29–$31 29.2 ↓ 🔍 Watch Golden cross anomaly — structural positive vs short-term collapse. Wait for RSI stabilization. CROX $72–$76 31.8 🔍 Watch -24.5% in 30D. Need RSI < 30 or clear base for conviction. DECK $96–$100 34.4 🔍 Watch Brand thesis intact. Golden cross positive. Wait for base at SMA200 ~$104. LULU $158–$163 38.9 🔍 Watch RSI approaching zone but not there yet; wait for RSI < 35 or strong volume base. SBUX $90–$93 40.4 📈 Accumulate Niccol turnaround intact. Golden cross. Pullback to SMA200 ($88.58) would be ideal add. HIMS $20–$22 54.5 ⚠️ Avoid Still extended post-catalyst; need deeper pullback to SMA50 (~$23) or below. CMG Hold off 36.5 ❌ Don't Buy Death cross + -43% from high = falling knife without catalyst.
Action Matrix Action Stocks Why 📈 ACCUMULATE NKE, SBUX NKE at capitulation RSI; SBUX Niccol thesis intact with golden cross 🔍 WATCH AS, CROX, DECK, LULU Approaching oversold; need base confirmation before acting ⚠️ AVOID HIMS Still extended from catalyst pop; risk/reward poor here ❌ DON'T BUY CMG, DPZ, PYPL Death cross + structural damage; no entry signal 🚨 SECTOR ALERT XLY RSI 27.8 = sector ETF in capitulation; confirms broad consumer weakness
What Changed (vs 2026-03-12) Stock Mar-12 Mar-20 Move Note SBUX $100.92, strong-up, RSI 64.1 $92.65, weak-down, RSI 40.4 Deteriorated sharply Lost $100, downgraded from strong-up; golden cross intact but selling pressure emerged NKE $54.42, RSI 26 $52.52, RSI 26.7 Still weak Continued deterioration; no sign of bottom HIMS $25.06, RSI 64.3, +60% 30D $23.10, RSI 54.5, +47.8% 30D Faded Post-catalyst momentum cooling; -1.7% 7D CROX $80.46, -18.3% 30D $75.54, -24.5% 30D Accelerating lower Continued breakdown, death cross confirmed AS $32.80, RSI 31.0 $30.99, RSI 29.2 Edging toward capitulation -26.1% 30D, approaching extreme oversold CMG $32.83, RSI 28.7 $33.01, RSI 36.5 Minor bounce Tiny stabilization but still in strong-down; RSI bounced from near-capitulation XLY $112.40, RSI 33.0 $107.71, RSI 27.8 Sector worsening Sector ETF hits new oversold low; consumer macro deteriorating
Key Discoveries Discovery Implication SBUX lost strong-up trend with -8.5% in 8 days Niccol turnaround thesis weakening; golden cross only backstop now XLY RSI 27.8 — sector ETF at capitulation No consumer tailwind; individual stock calls require independent thesis AS golden cross + RSI 29 divergence Unusual structural positive vs near-term collapse; worth monitoring closely
Open Questions
Is SBUX pullback a buying opportunity or trend change? Golden cross intact but trend flipped weak-down.
NKE RSI at historic lows — will turnaround catalyst emerge or is this a structural decline?HIMS : has the FDA catalyst run fully faded, or is $20 level a new base?
No direct external sources are attached to this read.