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Previous: [2026-03-13-cyber-geopolitical-thesis.md]

Status: MONITORING — NET confirming thesis, rest lagging

The Thesis Geopolitical conflict → increased cyber attacks → cybersecurity spend acceleration → sector outperformance.

What's Changed

The thesis is partially confirmed — but only one stock is capturing it:

The insight: The cyber thesis is real but the market is being extremely selective. NET and AKAM (edge/CDN infrastructure) are winning. Traditional cybersecurity (CRWD, PANW, ZS, FTNT) is losing despite the same thesis. The market is saying: infrastructure > software in this environment.

Updated View Downgrade from "active" to "monitoring". The thesis hasn't changed but it's only working for NET/AKAM, not the sector broadly. Keep watching but don't make sector bets — pick the winners.