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Previous: [2026-03-26-cyber-geopolitical-thesis.md]

Status: MONITORING → APPROACHING RESOLUTION

Narrative arc: Decay — thesis correct in theory, not working in practice

This perspective has one more update left. The cyber war thesis is decaying exactly as predicted on March 26: NET has continued cooling, CRWD/PANW/ZS remain structurally weak, and without a catalyzing major cyber incident, the sector isn't getting the rotation it theoretically deserves.

Updated Data

NET at RSI 45.1 is the clearest signal. March 26 warned: "If NET breaks below SMA20 and joins the other cybersec names in weakness → RESOLVE as 'thesis correct, not tradeable.'" NET is now -1.8% below its SMA20. The condition has been met.

CRWD falling to RSI 30.9 while AKAM holds RSI 62 confirms the infrastructure-over-software pattern is durable, not temporary. The market isn't pricing "cyber war spend" — it's pricing "infrastructure traffic growth."

Resolution Assessment

Resolving this perspective with the following verd