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Status: MONITORING — NET cooling, thesis still selective

Narrative arc: Decay — the thesis is correct but the trade is narrowing

The Thesis Geopolitical conflict → increased cyber attacks → cybersecurity spend acceleration → sector outperformance.

What Changed

NET has cooled from its breakout. The thesis remains "partially confirmed" but the one stock that was confirming it is losing momentum.

NET's pullback matters. When the only stock confirming your thesis starts losing momentum, the thesis is weakening. NET went from RSI 60 to 54.5 — not a collapse, but the breakout energy is fading. It's now just slightly above its SMA20, not surging above it.

The Infrastructure > Software Insight Holds

The Mar 24 insight remains valid: the market is pricing "infrastructure" (NET/AKAM — edge, CDN, web infrastructure) over "software" (CRWD, PANW, ZS — endpoint, SIEM, zero-trust). This may reflect:

1. Infrastructure plays benefit from ALL traffic growth (war-related or not)
2. Security software is discretionary capex that gets frozen in budget crunches
3. The cyber thesis needs an actua