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Previous: [2026-03-31-gold-crash.md] Renamed from "Gold Crash Anomaly" → "Gold Recovery" (March 31)

Status: ACTIVE — Recovery stalling; price flat but momentum building underneath

Narrative arc: Crisis → Recovery inflection → Momentum building (but testing patience)

The gold recovery entered a frustrating phase this week. GLD barely moved in price ($428→$429, just +$1) but the RSI improved dramatically from 31 to 46. That's a textbook "base building" pattern — the selling pressure is gone, buyers are accumulating, but price hasn't broken out yet. Meanwhile, the dollar firmed slightly (UUP RSI 57→60), which explains the price stall. Gold needs the dollar to weaken for the next leg.

The silver story deteriorated. SLV dropped from $67.82 to $65.79 (-3.0%) while gold was flat. When silver underperforms gold after previously leading, it often means the industrial demand component is weakening — consistent with a global growth scare from $100+ oil. GDX miners, however, continued recovering (+4.1%), suggesting the gold mining complex still believes in higher gold prices.

The Recovery Data