Macro Commodities
Macro Commodities
Oil is the undisputed monster. Agriculture quietly strong. Precious metals in a violent correction — GLD RSI 30.8, SLV RSI 35.6, GDX RSI 33.7, SIL RSI 27.2. Dollar strong (UUP RSI 62.6) is the squeeze driver. Housing (ITB/XHB) crushed. Europe imploding (EWG RSI 24.6, VGK RSI 25.7).
Price Table
| Symbol | Price | RSI | Trend | vsSma200 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | From High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| USO | $117.29 | 64.0 | strong-up | +52.2% | -6.1% | +43.1% | +68.5% | -6.3% |
| Agriculture | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DBA | $27.14 | 71.6 | strong-up | +5.4% | +0.2% | +4.2% | +5.8% | -5.2% |
| CORN | $18.69 | 63.2 | strong-up | +5.7% | +2.0% | +6.1% | +4.5% | -7.9% |
| WEAT | $22.89 | 56.2 | strong-up | +7.2% | +1.5% | +3.3% | +13.3% | -8.5% |
| SOYB | $24.08 | 54.5 | strong-up | +7.3% | -1.6% | +2.5% | +8.8% | -1.8% |
| Precious Metals | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| GLD | $400.73 | 30.8 | weak-down | +6.5% | -1.2% | -17.2% | +0.5% | -21.4% |
| SLV | $60.79 | 35.6 | weak-down | +16.9% | +4.1% | -28.5% | -7.9% | -44.7% |
| GDX | $82.60 | 33.7 | weak-down | +7.8% | +6.4% | -27.5% | -9.5% | -29.5% |
| SIL | $78.17 | 27.2 | weak-down | +7.9% | -14.9% | -27.5% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| Base Metals / Uranium | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| COPX | $70.94 | 37.5 | weak-down | +13.9% | +8.2% | -25.9% | -0.5% | -29.1% |
| URA | $46.71 | 39.9 | weak-down | +3.7% | +4.8% | -14.0% | +7.0% | -25.0% |
| Currencies | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UUP | $27.81 | 62.6 | strong-up | +3.5% | -0.1% | +2.7% | +3.1% | -2.8% |
| FXE | $106.62 | 43.1 | down | -0.7% | +0.9% | -1.9% | -1.5% | -4.0% |
| FXY | $57.65 | 40.3 | strong-down | -4.9% | +0.9% | -2.8% | -1.6% | -11.4% |
| Housing | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ITB | $90.31 | 32.0 | down | -11.4% | +2.0% | -15.8% | -7.3% | -23.5% |
| XHB | $98.06 | 33.9 | down | -8.7% | +2.7% | -14.8% | -6.0% | -20.4% |
| International | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EWG | $38.17 | 24.6 | down | -9.0% | -1.7% | -13.9% | -9.9% | -8.0% |
| VGK | $79.06 | 25.7 | down | -2.1% | -1.5% | -12.2% | -5.0% | -6.7% |
| EWZ | $36.79 | 49.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sector Assessment
Oil Supercycle Confirmed: USO +52.2% above SMA200, +68.5% 3M. The Iran/Hormuz crisis is repricing energy globally. Only concern: -6.1% this week suggests profit-taking starting.
Agriculture Quietly Working: DBA overbought at RSI 71.6 but strong-up with golden cross. All ag commodities (CORN, WEAT, SOYB) trending up. Oil prices feeding through to fertilizer/transport costs = food inflation.
Precious Metals Crash: GLD -17.2% in 30 days despite war. SIL RSI 27.2 is extreme. The dollar squeeze (UUP strong-up) is the culprit — strong dollar + margin calls = forced selling of gold/silver. Golden crosses still intact. This is the anomaly — see perspectives/2026-03-26-gold-crash.md.
Dollar Dominance: UUP strong-up, RSI 62.6, golden cross. FXY death cross at -4.9% vs SMA200 — yen weakest in years. Euro (FXE) down too. Dollar strength crushing everything except oil.
Housing Implosion: ITB RSI 32.0, -15.8% 30D. XHB RSI 33.9, -14.8% 30D. Both well below SMA200. Rate cut hopes delayed + tariff uncertainty = housing in freefall. Approaching capitulation readings.
Europe Crashing: EWG RSI 24.6 and VGK RSI 25.7 — extreme oversold. Tariff escalation + energy costs + defense spending = perfect storm for European equities.
Entry Zones
| Symbol | Entry Zone | Stop | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $380–$400 | $360 | RSI 30.8; golden cross intact; dollar must turn first |
| GDX | $75–$82 | $68 | RSI 33.7; miners oversold vs gold |
| ITB | $85–$90 | $80 | RSI 32; if rate cuts materialize = snap-back |
| XHB | $95–$98 | $88 | Same housing thesis as ITB |
| VGK | $78–$80 | $74 | RSI 25.7 extreme; European fiscal stimulus possible |
| COPX | $65–$70 | $58 | Infrastructure demand intact; war-ends = copper recovery |
Action Matrix
| Symbol | Action | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| USO | Trail stops | +52.2% vs SMA200 — protect gains |
| DBA | Hold | Strong-up but RSI 71.6 overbought — no new entries |
| GLD | Watch for dollar turn | RSI 30.8; golden cross intact; catalyst = UUP reversal |
| SIL/GDX | Watch | RSI 27-34; most oversold in commodity complex |
| ITB/XHB | Watch | Approaching capitulation; catalyst needed (rate cut signals) |
| VGK/EWG | Contrarian watch | RSI 24-26 extreme; only if tariff de-escalation |
| URA | Hold | -14% 30D pullback but above SMA200 |
What Changed
- Precious metals crash deepened: GLD -17.2% 30D, SIL -27.5% 30D — historic washout
- Dollar strength persists: UUP still strong-up, squeezing everything
- Housing accelerating down: ITB -15.8% 30D, now -11.4% below SMA200
- Europe approaching capitulation: EWG RSI 24.6 is a multi-year extreme
- Agriculture holding: Strong-up trends intact despite commodity chaos elsewhere
Data: 2026-03-26 pre-computed summaries.
Related
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