Gold miners (GDX +9.3% 30D) outpacing gold (GLD +4.1% 30D) by 5+ points — gold-crash perspective hit confirmed. Iran/oil premium cooling (-10% 7D on USO) but still structurally elevated (+8.2% 30D). Uranium breakout +5% 7D, agriculture quietly bid.

• USO pulling back hard (-10% 7D) as Iran/oil premium deflates with VXX -16% 7D, but the 3M +71% and golden cross structure remain intact. Still 55% above SMA200 — not a broken thesis, just cooling. The 30D +8% shows the underlying bid persists.
• UNG remains in structural decline — death cross, -44% from 52wk high, -18% below SMA200. Not a trade.
• Iran/oil cooling signal: The 7D USO selloff coincides with VXX compression, suggesting the geopolitical premium is being priced out. Watch the $115-120 zone (near SMA50) as the first meaningful support.

• Gold-crash perspective HIT confirmed: GDX +9.3% 30D vs GLD +4.1% 30D — miners outpacing the underlying by ~5pts. This is the signal the gold-crash perspective flagged: when miners outperform, it suggests the gold thesis is shifting from safe-haven bid to operating leverage play. GDX is 30D's best precious metals performer despite being -19% from 52wk high.
• GLD digesting at SMA20 ($433.70) — RSI 47 is neutral, not extreme. The 3M -6.77% reflects the April blow-off reversal. Structurally, it's still +42% 1Y and well above SMA200.
• SLV the laggard: -19.25% 3M is a significant correction. Silver needs industrial demand confirmation (copper/EM combo) to break back up. The +4.7% 7D bounce is tentative.
• SIL (silver miners) more resilient than SLV itself — RSI 55.9 vs 48.5. Classic miner-vs-metal divergence playing out in both gold AND silver.

• Copper (COPX) flat for the week but +8.9% 30D and holding golden cross. The 3M -6.5% is the China/tariff trade war dampener — watch for EM demand recovery (EEM +11% 30D) to give copper a catalyst.
• Agriculture (DBA) is the quiet standout: +6.3% 3M, RSI 64, only -2.2% from 52wk high. Near the upper end of range but no overbought signal yet. Food security thesis (food-security watchlist) backing this.
• Wheat pullback (-3.8% 7D) diverging from corn/soybean strength — suggests Black Sea risk premium fading while biofuel/protein demand holds.
• SOYB and CORN both showing golden crosses on strong-up trends despite flat-to-down 30D. Agricultural commodity base building looks intact.

• URA +5% 7D is a breakout from the flat 3M consolidation zone. Golden cross intact, +13.9% above SMA200 — the uranium thesis (AI power demand + nuclear licensing) is heating back up after a quiet stretch.
• The 1Y and 5Y alpha are massive (+106%, +151%) — this is still early innings for the secular nuclear renaissance story. April move suggests something structural, not just noise.
• Watch URA $55 as the next resistance level (near recent 52wk high zone).

• Dollar (UUP) softening at the margins: -1.26% 7D and 30D, RSI 41.6 approaching oversold. The weak dollar narrative is supporting commodities and EM broadly. Not a breakdown yet — UUP still above SMA200 — but directional headwind is clear.
• Euro (FXE) flat-to-up, holding all SMAs. EUR/USD stability means geopolitical European premium isn't spiking, which is consistent with the war-ends perspective monitoring.
• Yen (FXY) remains the weakest G3 currency — death cross, -34% 5Y. Japanese monetary policy divergence still the dominant theme. Avoid as a trade vehicle.

• Housing stabilizing after the rate-driven Q1 selloff — both ETFs are bouncing (+5-8% 30D) but death crosses remain. XHB and ITB are both below SMA200 which is the bear confirmation level.
• The +5-8% 30D bounce could be a dead cat or a genuine floor if rate expectations stabilize. RSI 56-59 not oversold — no rush to buy.
• Watch for the SMA200 reclaim as the trigger signal: XHB needs $107.58, ITB needs $102.12.

• Europe (VGK) is the standout: +5.4% 30D, RSI 64, only -3.4% from 52wk high. Germany (EWG) +7.3% 30D. The war-ends thesis is pricing in European cyclical recovery — defense spending catalyst + potential ceasefire premium.
• EEM broad EM +11% 30D is the strongest signal in this section — emerging markets are ripping on dollar weakness + Chinese stimulus expectations. 16.5% above SMA200, RSI 64 approaching overbought. Best performing international play since April 10.
• Brazil (EWZ) gave back some gains (-3% 7D) but +6.4% 30D still solid. Commodity-linked EM holding up.
• India (INDA) death cross persists — structural underperformance vs EEM despite the Apr 10 recovery. FXI (China) still underperforming EM broadly.

• MTUM at RSI 74.6 — nearly overbought. Momentum factor +13.6% 30D and +9.4% 3M suggests the market is rewarding trend-followers. Approaching its 52wk high (-0.2% away). Don't chase.
• Value (VTV) outperforming growth (VUG) on 3M basis (+3.1% vs -3.6%) — consistent with energy/commodity/defense rotation. Value factor golden cross intact.
• Equal-weight (RSP) gaining ground — breadth improving. RSP +2.4% 30D with golden cross suggests the market rally is broadening, not just mega-cap driven.
• Quality (QUAL) nearly at 52wk high (-0.6%) — high-quality factor being rewarded in the current uncertain macro environment.

1. The oil risk premium is deflating, not collapsing. USO -10% 7D but still +8.2% 30D and 55% above SMA200 — the underlying geopolitical bid remains. The Iran/oil scenario thesis is transitioning from "acute crisis" to "structural premium." Watch the SMA50 (~$102) for the real test.

2. Gold-crash perspective thesis confirmed. GDX outperforming GLD on 30D is the miner-outperformance signal that indicates operating leverage is being valued, not just the safe-haven bid. This is a bullish structural signal for the gold complex, not a warning.

3. Soft commodity bid is quiet but persistent. DBA +6.3% 3M with RSI 64 near all-time highs. Food security infrastructure (NTR, MOS) deserves attention here — if DBA continues its breakout, the food-security watchlist should re-activate.

4. Dollar weakness is the macro thread connecting everything. UUP -1.3% 7D+30D, EEM +11% 30D, EWZ holding, Europe strong — soft dollar is the tailwind for nearly every commodity and EM play. Watch UUP $27 as the line in the sand.

• Will USO hold SMA50 (~$102) if Iran premium fully deflates? That's the stress test for the oil thesis.
• Is the housing bounce (+5-8% 30D) a floor or a dead cat — rate expectations need to stabilize to confirm.
• When does the EEM/dollar weakness trade get too crowded? RSI 64 isn't extreme but bears watching.