Macro & Commodities Scan
Macro & Commodities Scan
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Energy cratering; 🟢 Copper + EM ripping; 🟡 Precious metals pulling back from highs |
| Key insight | Oil (USO -22.7% 30D, RSI 33) is disconnecting from copper (COPX +9.7% 30D) — bifurcation signals demand-driven commodity strength vs. OPEC/oversupply pressure on crude |
Energy
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | $115.47 | -7.0% | -22.7% | -2.8% | -25.1% | 33 | 🟡 Approaching Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid — supply-side bleed; not yet oversold enough |
| BNO | $43.89 | -7.9% | -23.9% | -11.2% | -27.8% | 30 | 🟡 Near Oversold | ⏳ Watch — Brent nearing RSI 30; wait for floor |
| UNG | $11.76 | -0.5% | +1.9% | -3.6% | -35.1% | 56 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch — nat gas basing; death cross present |
Energy read: Crude is in free-fall — USO down nearly 23% in 30 days with RSI only at 33 (not yet capitulation). BNO (Brent) is marginally worse. Natural gas is the odd one out: flat-to-slightly-positive 30D with RSI 56 — the best energy chart here by far.
Precious Metals
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $397.63 | +0.1% | -5.0% | -13.4% | -22.0% | 44 | 🟡 Pullback | 📈 Accumulate — structural uptrend intact (1y +28%); 3M reset |
| SLV | $63.39 | +4.8% | -9.4% | -11.5% | -42.3% | 45 | 🟡 Pullback | 🔍 Watch — bouncing but still below all SMAs |
| GDX | $87.24 | +7.7% | +0.1% | -7.2% | -25.6% | 53 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch — miners bouncing; above 20-SMA but below 50-SMA |
| GDXJ | $114.44 | +9.7% | -0.9% | -8.5% | -27.3% | 53 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch — juniors recovering; 3M still negative |
| SIL | $89.23 | +9.0% | -1.5% | -5.3% | -25.2% | 53 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch — silver miners mirroring GDX; holding SMA200 |
Precious metals read: Gold pulled back 13% in 3M but is stabilizing (flat 7D). Miners (GDX/GDXJ/SIL) all bounced hard this week (+7-10%) — that's a meaningful reversal signal. Structural bull intact but need to reclaim 50-SMA to confirm. GLD is the cleanest add-on-weakness here.
Industrial Metals + Agriculture
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COPX | $89.79 | +9.1% | +9.7% | +15.3% | -10.2% | 57 | 🟢 Uptrend | 🔒 Hold — copper breaking out; AI infrastructure + EM demand |
| TECK | $66.99 | +5.0% | +11.4% | +34.3% | -6.0% | 58 | 🟢 Uptrend | 🔒 Hold — diversified miner ripping; 5% from 52wk high |
| AA | $62.87 | -12.4% | +0.6% | -3.8% | -25.5% | 40 | 🟡 Pullback | 🔍 Watch — aluminum punished this week; 1y +128% still strong |
| DBA | $26.66 | +0.2% | -5.5% | +0.2% | -7.6% | 42 | 🟡 Basing | 🔍 Watch — ag basket cooling; flat 3M |
| WEAT | $22.75 | -0.1% | -9.0% | +0.6% | -11.1% | 44 | 🟡 Pullback | ⚠️ Avoid — wheat weak trend multi-year |
| CORN | $16.93 | -1.7% | -9.7% | -7.6% | -11.5% | 33 | 🟡 Near Oversold | 🔍 Watch — approaching oversold; trade-policy sensitive |
| SOYB | $24.34 | +0.0% | -3.3% | +1.1% | -4.4% | 44 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch — soybeans basing near 52wk high |
| AGRO | $9.93 | -3.6% | -26.2% | -19.5% | -37.5% | 27 | 🟢 Oversold | ✅ Strong Buy signal on RSI — ag equity ETF capitulating |
Industrial/Ag read: Copper is the standout winner — COPX +15.3% in 3M signals real demand, likely AI infrastructure buildout. Agriculture is bifurcated: AGRO (ag equity) cratered 26% in 30D to RSI 27, while commodity ETFs (SOYB/DBA) are holding better. The AGRO collapse vs. SOYB stability suggests company-specific pressure, not commodity weakness.
Uranium
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URA | $47.87 | +6.5% | -1.7% | -5.3% | -23.1% | 47 | 🟡 Pullback | 🔍 Watch — bouncing but needs to reclaim $51 SMA50 |
| UUUU | $15.34 | +5.8% | -11.8% | -20.6% | -45.0% | 41 | 🟡 Pullback | 📈 Accumulate — domestic uranium enricher; thesis intact, deep discount |
Uranium read: URA bounced 6.5% this week but remains 5% below SMA50. UUUU is down 45% from 52wk high — nuclear-fuel-cycle perspective names are in reset mode. This is the buy-zone range for the long-thesis holders; not a knife-catch situation.
Currencies
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUP | $27.93 | 0.0% | +0.8% | +0.9% | -1.8% | 59 | 🟢 Basing | 🔍 Watch — dollar quietly strengthening; near 52wk high |
| FXE | $107.12 | +0.2% | -0.3% | +0.8% | -4.0% | 50 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch — euro dead flat; no trend |
| FXY | $57.19 | -0.1% | -1.1% | -1.0% | -11.2% | 38 | 🟡 Pullback | ⚠️ Avoid — yen structural downtrend; death cross |
Currency read: Dollar (UUP) is quietly grinding higher at RSI 59 and nearly at 52wk highs — this is mild USD strength that typically headwinds commodity prices. Yen continues its multi-year slide (death cross, -11% from 52wk high). Euro is a non-event.
Housing
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHB | $109.84 | +1.2% | +13.9% | +7.9% | -10.8% | 64 | 🟠 Near Overbought | ⚠️ Don't chase — extended; death cross overhead |
| ITB | $98.26 | +1.0% | +12.5% | +4.4% | -16.7% | 62 | 🟠 Near Overbought | ⚠️ Don't chase — homebuilders ripping but pricey |
Housing read: Housing ETFs surged 12-14% in 30 days — likely rate-cut-expectation trade. RSI approaching 65 area; both have death crosses overhead (longer-term downtrend structure). Not the entry here.
International
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | $90.01 | +1.6% | +3.3% | +7.8% | -0.8% | 59 | 🟢 Uptrend | 🔒 Hold — Europe at 52wk high; strong trend |
| EWG | $41.77 | -1.4% | +0.6% | +4.6% | -6.5% | 51 | 🟢 Uptrend | 🔍 Watch — Germany lagging Europe slightly |
| EWZ | $34.41 | +1.3% | -5.4% | -5.4% | -18.1% | 40 | 🟡 Pullback | 🔍 Watch — Brazil weak; EM commodity exposure |
| INDA | $49.41 | +3.3% | +3.3% | +1.8% | -11.8% | 60 | 🟡 Pullback | 📈 Accumulate — India recovering; geopolitical tailwind |
| EWJ | $94.12 | +1.9% | +4.1% | +11.2% | -0.8% | 61 | 🟢 Uptrend | 🔒 Hold — Japan near 52wk high; strong trend |
| FXI | $34.56 | +0.8% | -3.7% | -5.6% | -17.7% | 41 | 🟡 Pullback | ⚠️ Avoid — China death cross; structural downtrend |
| EEM | $68.64 | +4.9% | +6.2% | +17.4% | -3.1% | 57 | 🟢 Uptrend | 🔒 Hold — EM ex-China ripping; near 52wk high |
International read: The biggest divergence in years — Japan (EWJ) and Europe (VGK) are both within 1% of 52wk highs while China (FXI) is in death-cross pullback. EM broad (EEM +17.4% in 3M) is outperforming. The non-US developed market trade is working.
Factor Rotation
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VUG | $86.79 | +1.8% | -0.3% | +14.2% | -4.2% | 52 | 🟢 Uptrend | 🔒 Hold — growth recovering but lagging value |
| VTV | $218.03 | +2.1% | +5.1% | +10.0% | -0.9% | 69 | 🟠 Near Overbought | 🔒 Hold — value near all-time high; RSI approaching 70 |
| MTUM | $326.05 | +5.8% | +10.9% | +31.5% | -3.0% | 60 | 🟢 Uptrend | 🔒 Hold — momentum factor on fire; 31.5% in 3M |
| QUAL | $217.76 | +1.8% | +3.4% | +10.8% | -0.9% | 62 | 🟢 Uptrend | 🔒 Hold — quality near all-time high |
| RSP | $212.17 | +1.6% | +4.6% | +8.7% | -1.0% | 63 | 🟢 Uptrend | 🔒 Hold — equal-weight breakout confirms broad rally |
Factor rotation read: This is a full-spectrum rally — value (VTV), momentum (MTUM), quality (QUAL), and equal-weight (RSP) are all within 1-4% of 52wk highs. MTUM is the clear winner at +31.5% in 3M. This is NOT a narrow market — breadth is healthy.
What the Commodities Are Telling Us
The macro picture is sending two signals simultaneously:
Supply-driven commodity deflation — Oil (USO -22.7% 30D) and agricultural commodities (CORN -9.7%, WEAT -9.0%) are deflating. OPEC overproduction + soft demand for crude. This is disinflationary.
Demand-driven industrial commodity strength — Copper (COPX +15.3% 3M, +9.1% 7D) and miners (TECK +34.3% 3M) are ripping. This is AI infrastructure + EM industrial demand. The opposite of recession.
These two signals coexisting is the "soft landing + AI capex" regime in commodity form.
Cross-Asset Signals
| Signal | Reading | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Oil collapsing, copper surging | Bifurcated commodities | AI capex demand > OPEC production cuts; not stagflation |
| Dollar quietly firming (UUP +0.9% 3M, near 52wk high) | USD mild strength | Headwind for commodity prices in USD terms |
| Precious metals bouncing (GDX/GDXJ/SIL +7-10% this week) | Miner reversal signal | Gold thesis intact; miners may lead next leg |
| EEM +17.4% 3M, FXI -5.6% 3M | EM ex-China breakout | India/ASEAN/LatAm picking up slack from China slowdown |
| VTV and RSP near all-time highs | Value + breadth breakout | Confirms risk-on rotation beyond mega-cap tech |
| AGRO RSI 27 (oversold) | Ag equity capitulation | Potential contrarian entry in ag equities (NOT ag commodities) |
Data from pre-computed summaries as of 2026-06-16T00:00:00. Do not recompute — use code-computed fields exactly.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.