EOW tape: Energy crushed (-8% USO 7D), gold digesting near highs, copper/EM ripping in risk-ON melt-up. Safe havens ignored. Factor rotation strongly favors momentum/growth (VUG RSI 74.7). Uranium pulling back but long-term intact.

• Oil (USO) in a clear short-term breakdown — -8.2% in 7 days, -12.2% in 30 days, sitting 8.2% below SMA20. Despite being up 48% in 3 months, the recent flush erases near-term bullish structure. RSI 42 — not oversold, just weak.
• Nat gas (UNG) is the divergent trade: +7.1% 7D, +12.6% 30D, RSI 61.2 bouncing. Still -34% from 52wk high, so this is a bounce within a longer downtrend. Death cross active. Summer cooling demand or LNG export bid may be driving.
• Read: Oil soft = demand worry or OPEC+ pressure; nat gas bouncing = structural AI power demand + summer. The pair signal argues against pure deflationary collapse — energy complex is bifurcated.

• Gold (GLD) digesting — flat week, -1.5% 30D, but -14.9% in 3 months after the parabolic Q1 2026 run. RSI 44.6 neutral. Still above SMA200 (+3.7%), golden cross intact — consolidation, not breakdown.
• Silver (SLV) slightly firmer: +2.5% 30D but -16.2% 3M. -37.8% from 52wk high is significant cheapness relative to gold. Silver/gold ratio compressing — silver lagging its traditional catch-up.
• Miners (GDX/SIL) firming this week: GDX +3.4% 7D, SIL +4.6% 7D. GDX RSI 48.6, SIL RSI 51 — miners recovering faster than spot, which is classically bullish for the next leg. SIL entering strong-up trend.
• Read: Precious metals are in a mid-cycle consolidation after a violent rally. The risk-ON melt-up is suppressing safe-haven demand. Watch for re-bid on any macro shock.

• Copper (COPX/TECK) is the standout: COPX +7.5% 7D, TECK +6.5% 7D with RSIs at 56.8 and 62.4 — strong-up trend. TECK at -2.2% from 52wk high. Industrial metals are pricing in global demand recovery, not recession.
• Alcoa (AA) exploding: +7.2% 7D, +21.9% 30D, RSI 70.1, +16.3% above SMA20 — chasing here is dangerous. Aluminum tariff tailwind or supply disruption bid. Overbought signal.
• Agriculture is soft: DBA/WEAT/CORN all weak-down RSIs in 41-44 range. SOYB is the outlier (RSI 55.8, strong-up, -1.3% from 52wk high) — China demand signal? Watch for soybean/corn divergence as a geopolitical trade-flow tell.
• Read: Industrial metals say global growth; agriculture says no real inflationary shock. The combo argues against stagflation — more "soft landing with pockets of demand."

• URA bouncing +3.5% this week but still -10% 30D and -10% 3M. Sitting 18.5% below 52wk high but above SMA200 (+4.8%), golden cross intact. RSI 46.5 neutral.
• Uranium thesis (AI power demand, nuclear restarts) remains structural but near-term price momentum weak. This is accumulation territory for patient holders, not a chase. Long-term 3Y chart +193% validates the thesis.

• Dollar (UUP) stable: RSI 53.4, +0.3% above SMA20, strong-up trend, -2.8% from 52wk high. Not breaking down despite risk-ON. Dollar strength here is notable — usually risk-ON weakens the dollar.
• Euro (FXE) flatlined — essentially zero movement across 7D/30D/3M. RSI 50.4, all SMAs flat. No conviction in EUR direction.
• Yen (FXY) continues structural weakness: -10.9% from 52wk high, strong-down trend, death cross active. BoJ not moving fast enough to arrest the slide. Yen weakness = inflationary pressure on Japan importers, bullish for EWJ in USD terms.
• Read: Dollar holding = capital staying in US equities + flight from EM bonds, but the market is also pricing risk-ON. The dollar not falling with equities rallying is an unusual regime signal.

• Homebuilders (XHB/ITB) getting a bounce this week (+3.5% 7D) but still -9% to -11% 3M with death crosses active. Both sitting 17-23% below 52wk highs.
• RSI 51-52 neutral — not oversold, not recovered. The bounce may be short-covering or rate-cut positioning, not fundamental demand recovery.
• Read: Housing is a rate-sensitive laggard. Until the Fed meaningfully cuts, the sector trades in a wide sideways range with downside risk on any rate re-acceleration.

• Europe (VGK/EWG) strong-up, near 52wk highs, RSI 56-58. European defense spending + fiscal impulse + lower energy costs driving. Not overbought yet.
• Japan (EWJ) strong: RSI 61.3, +4.3% 30D, -1.4% from 52wk high. Yen weakness is a tailwind for exporters priced in USD. Watch closely — a BoJ surprise hike reverses this immediately.
• EM aggregate (EEM) is the best-performing international ETF: +4.2% 7D, +7.2% 30D, +11.5% 3M, RSI 64.4, -0.7% from 52wk high. EM is leading, not lagging.
• Brazil (EWZ) and China (FXI) both weak: EWZ RSI 36.2, -9.6% 30D; FXI RSI 36, strong-down, death cross. China tech/macro headwinds persistent. Brazil commodity drag from oil softness.
• India (INDA) flat — neutral setup, still -13.3% from 52wk high, weak-up trend. Waiting for domestic catalyst.

• All 5 factor ETFs are in strong-up trend, near 52wk highs. The market breadth (RSP RSI 67.9) confirms this isn't just a big-cap story — equal-weight also advancing.
• VUG (growth) RSI 74.7 is approaching overbought territory. Growth is leading value: VUG +16.4% 3M vs VTV +3.0% 3M. Classic late-melt-up rotation into momentum/growth.
• MTUM at RSI 71.3, +24.6% 3M — momentum factor is the single strongest signal of regime. This is a melt-up confirmation, not a warning yet. Chasing MTUM here has poor risk/reward.
• QUAL (RSI 68.2) and RSP (RSI 67.9) suggest the rally has breadth — quality and equal-weight participation reduces crash risk vs. a thin-top scenario.

Verdict: Disinflationary risk-ON melt-up (not stagflation, not deflation)

The cross-asset read is clear:

• Energy soft (oil -12% 30D) = global demand not overheating, OPEC+ production ceiling being tested
• Copper/industrial metals strong (COPX +10.7% 30D) = growth expectations holding
• Gold digesting after a run = no panic bid for safe havens
• Agriculture flat-to-soft = no food inflation shock
• Factor rotation into growth/momentum = risk appetite high

This is the "soft landing confirmed" trade — lower energy costs reduce inflation, industrial metals confirm growth, equities melt up. The tail risk is if oil re-accelerates (geopolitical supply shock) or if the dollar weakens and EM inflation returns.

• Will copper/industrial metals confirm if oil cannot recover? Split signal risks.
• BoJ rate decision timing — any surprise kills EWJ trade instantly
• Gold miner outperformance vs spot: is this a leading or lagging signal for next gold leg?