Macro / Commodities Scan
Macro / Commodities Scan
Hard-down commodity tape: the crude complex (USO RSI 32, BNO RSI 29) and the entire precious-metals chain (GLD 32.6, SLV 29.2, GDX/GDXJ/SIL 40-41) sold off together — this is a coordinated risk-off / dollar-strength move, not a single-commodity story. UUP (Dollar) is the mirror: RSI 74.7, breakout, +4.4% vs SMA200. Copper rolled over with the group (COPX -13% 7D, RSI 40; TECK -10.7% 7D, RSI 42) — the metals-vs-energy divergence of last week is GONE. US factor ETFs (VTV RSI 69, MTUM 61, RSP 62) and homebuilders (XHB/ITB RSI 68) are the lone strength, near 52wk highs. AGRO collapse continues (RSI 25, -27% 30D); AA fell to RSI 30 (-29% 30D); UUUU collapse (-21.6% vs SMA200). FXI (China) washed to RSI 23.3.
Latest bar 2026-06-25 (all names fresh per summary ). READ-ONLY scan: all figures from pre-computed
summaries/macro-commodities.json.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Broad commodity de-risking — crude + precious metals + copper sold off together into RSI 29-42; Dollar (UUP RSI 74.7) is the breakout mirror. Only US factor/value ETFs (VTV/MTUM/RSP) and homebuilders (XHB/ITB) hold strong uptrends near highs. Ags weak, AGRO/UUUU in collapse |
| Key insight | The metals-vs-energy split is over — COPX/TECK joined the crude+gold selloff. Everything ex-Dollar that is commodity-linked is down 7D. FXI washed to RSI 23.3 (most oversold), SLV RSI 29.2 / -52% from high. This is a dollar-strength / risk-off regime, not a rotation |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VTV | $220.49 | 69.0 | +2.5% | +0.29% | +3.94% | +12.96% | -0.75% | 🔒 Hold |
| ITB | $104.35 | 68.2 | +8.7% | +3.74% | +13.50% | +15.71% | -11.57% | 🔒 Hold |
| XHB | $115.92 | 68.0 | +8.5% | +2.35% | +13.44% | +18.38% | -5.86% | 🔒 Hold |
| RSP | $211.75 | 61.8 | +1.3% | -0.13% | +2.37% | +11.25% | -1.19% | 🔒 Hold |
| MTUM | $338.55 | 61.2 | +4.6% | -2.51% | +7.92% | +42.28% | -2.04% | 🔒 Hold |
| INDA | $49.49 | 57.1 | +2.1% | -0.32% | +1.94% | +6.18% | -11.63% | 🔍 Watch |
| UNG | $11.75 | 54.5 | +1.1% | +2.44% | +7.70% | -0.76% | -31.00% | 🔍 Watch |
| EWJ | $93.54 | 53.9 | +0.8% | -3.89% | +1.23% | +13.71% | -4.09% | 🔒 Hold |
| VGK | $87.83 | 53.6 | +0.4% | -1.45% | -0.51% | +11.06% | -3.22% | 🔒 Hold |
| EEM | $68.05 | 52.3 | 0.0% | -4.64% | 0.00% | +23.32% | -4.90% | 🔒 Hold |
| QUAL | $212.87 | 48.4 | -1.0% | -1.41% | -1.18% | +12.15% | -3.16% | 🔒 Hold |
| DBA | $26.83 | 48.3 | +0.5% | -0.15% | -2.33% | -1.03% | -6.93% | 🔍 Watch |
| EWG | $41.13 | 46.9 | -1.2% | -2.43% | -4.10% | +8.49% | -7.89% | 🔍 Watch |
| GDRZF | $4.52 | 44.0 | -4.9% | -6.11% | -2.80% | +9.98% | -19.29% | 🔍 Watch |
| EWZ | $34.30 | 43.4 | -0.2% | -0.47% | -5.12% | -5.90% | -18.37% | 🔍 Watch |
| WEAT | $22.56 | 43.2 | -0.8% | -2.91% | -6.85% | -2.42% | -11.88% | 🔍 Watch |
| GDXJ | $99.17 | 40.9 | -7.1% | -12.06% | -14.99% | -6.37% | -37.03% | 🔍 Watch |
| GDX | $76.51 | 40.7 | -6.6% | -11.43% | -13.55% | -7.14% | -34.71% | 🔍 Watch |
| COPX | $76.99 | 40.1 | -9.3% | -12.99% | -12.02% | +8.60% | -23.01% | 🔍 Watch |
| SIL | $77.09 | 40.0 | -8.0% | -11.30% | -15.59% | -5.01% | -35.35% | 🔍 Watch |
| VUG | $83.05 | 39.8 | -4.1% | -3.17% | -5.84% | +15.28% | -8.33% | 🔒 Hold |
| CORN | $16.90 | 39.0 | -1.5% | -2.06% | -7.04% | -9.67% | -11.68% | 🔍 Watch |
| URA | $43.92 | 38.7 | -7.1% | -6.11% | -13.65% | -5.95% | -29.48% | 🔍 Watch |
| UUUU | $14.42 | 38.6 | -10.3% | -8.91% | -21.63% | -18.35% | -48.32% | ❌ Don't Buy |
| TECK | $59.00 | 41.8 | -7.9% | -10.66% | -9.40% | +21.65% | -17.19% | 🔍 Watch |
| FXE | $104.97 | 29.9 | -1.4% | -1.10% | -2.16% | -1.07% | -5.89% | 🔍 Watch |
| GLD | $369.94 | 32.6 | -6.0% | -6.05% | -10.64% | -7.66% | -27.42% | 🔍 Watch |
| USO | $109.31 | 32.2 | -12.7% | -4.23% | -20.21% | -6.78% | -29.06% | 🔍 Watch |
| AA | $52.86 | 30.3 | -22.3% | -12.89% | -29.11% | -8.09% | -37.35% | 🔍 Watch |
| BNO | $41.58 | 29.1 ↓ | -13.5% | -3.98% | -21.69% | -17.74% | -31.62% | 🔍 Watch |
| SLV | $52.36 | 29.2 ↓ | -15.1% | -13.96% | -24.90% | -13.84% | -52.33% | 🔍 Watch |
| FXY | $56.69 | 26.5 ↓ | -0.9% | -0.60% | -1.63% | -1.29% | -11.98% | 🔍 Watch |
| AGRO | $9.13 | 25.0 ↓ | -16.8% | -2.15% | -27.02% | -33.50% | -42.54% | ❌ Don't Buy |
| FXI | $31.63 | 23.3 ↓ | -7.7% | -2.88% | -10.85% | -8.77% | -24.69% | 🔍 Watch |
CE (chemicals) RSI 33.9, -7.7% 30D, -21.4% 3M, collapse regime — omitted from body for length; weak. UUP (Dollar) RSI 74.7↑, breakout, +4.4% vs SMA200, -0.28% from high — the macro tell; overbought, don't chase. SOYB RSI 52.1, basing (ag relative-strength) — also omitted for length.
Tier Analysis
Strong Uptrends / Hold (RSI 53-69): US factor + value ETFs lead and are the ONLY broad strength: VTV (RSI 69.0, +13.0% 3M, +12.3% vs SMA200, strong-up, near 52wk high), MTUM (61.2, +42.3% 3M, +28.2% vs SMA200, strong-up), RSP (61.8, strong-up), QUAL (48.4, strong-up), VUG (39.8 — pulled back but +15.3% 3M, still uptrend regime). Homebuilders XHB (RSI 68.0, +13.4% 30D, uptrend) / ITB (68.2, +13.5% 30D) are the cyclical-strength standouts. International strong: EWJ (Japan, RSI 53.9, +13.7% 3M, strong-up), VGK (Europe, 53.6, +11.1% 3M, strong-up), EEM (52.3, +23.3% 3M, strong-up), EWG (46.9, uptrend). These are CONFIRMED-uptrend holds, not commodity-linked.
Coordinated Metals Selloff / Watch (RSI 29-41): The entire precious + base-metals complex sold off TOGETHER this week — GLD (RSI 32.6, -6.0% 7D, -10.6% 30D, now below SMA200 -9.5%, down regime), SLV (29.2, -14.0% 7D, -24.9% 30D, -52% from high, collapse), GDX (40.7, -11.4% 7D, -34.7% from high), GDXJ (40.9, -12.1% 7D, -37% from high), SIL (40.0, -11.3% 7D). Copper joined: COPX (40.1, -13.0% 7D, -12.0% 30D, still +8.6% 3M but rolling), TECK (41.8, -10.7% 7D, but +21.7% 3M — the prior leader giving back). This is the week's dominant move: metals-vs-energy divergence collapsed into one broad de-risk.
Uranium Collapse / Don't Buy (RSI 38-39): URA (RSI 38.7, -13.7% 30D, -29.5% from high, down regime) and UUUU (38.6, -21.6% 30D, -21.6% vs SMA200, -48% from high, collapse regime) — uranium names broke trend hard. UUUU is below all moving averages.
Currencies / Ags Weak (RSI 23-48): FXE (Euro, RSI 29.9, death cross), FXY (Yen, 26.5, -12% from high) both washed as Dollar broke out. Ags soft-to-weak: DBA (48.3, basing), WEAT (43.2, -6.9% 30D), CORN (39.0, -7.0% 30D, down), SOYB (52.1, basing — relative strength in ags). FXI (China, RSI 23.3, strong-down, -16.1% vs SMA200, -24.7% from high) is the single most-oversold name; EWZ (Brazil, 43.4) weak EM.
Crude Breakdown / Watch (RSI 29-32): USO (RSI 32.2, -20.2% 30D, -12.7% vs SMA20) and BNO (29.1, -21.7% 30D, -17.7% 3M, -31.6% from high) — crude still bleeding, both above SMA200 (golden cross intact) but deep below near-term averages. Energy detail lives in the geopolitical scan (XOM/CVX/COP/services).
Collapse / Don't Buy (RSI 25-30): AGRO (RSI 25.0, -27.0% 30D, -33.5% 3M, -16.8% vs SMA20, collapse) — the single structural collapse, no floor, avoid not buy. AA (RSI 30.3, -29.1% 30D, -22.3% vs SMA20, -37% from high, downtrend) gapped down hard this week — washed but broken trend.
Entry-Hunt Tags
- CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT / Hold: VTV (RSI 69, strong-up, near high), MTUM (61, +42% 3M), XHB (68), ITB (68), EWJ (54, +14% 3M), EEM (52, +23% 3M) — durable uptrends, not commodity-linked, the risk-on side of the tape.
- OVERSOLD (watch, NOT quality-buy yet): SLV (RSI 29, but below SMA200 -15.7%, collapse), GLD (32.6, broke below SMA200), FXI (23.3, strong-down). These are washed but trend-broken — wait for a base+reclaim, not a falling-knife catch.
- BROKEN / AVOID: AGRO (RSI 25, collapse, -33% 3M, no floor), UUUU (38.6, below all MAs, -48% from high), AA (30.3, -29% 30D, downtrend).
- EXTENDED / TRIM: UUP (Dollar, RSI 74.7, breakout, +4.4% vs SMA200) — overbought, the mirror of the whole-tape weakness; don't chase the Dollar here.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $369.94 | 32.6 | -10.64% | Gold broke below SMA200 (-9.5%) for first time this cycle — RSI 32.6 oversold but trend now down; watch for stabilization + SMA200 ($409) reclaim before calling it a dip, not now |
| SLV | $52.36 | 29.2 ↓ | -24.90% | Silver -52% from high, -14% in one week, collapse regime — deeply oversold but structurally broken; capitulation watch only, not a quality entry |
| COPX | $76.99 | 40.1 | -12.02% | Copper rolled over with the group (-13% 7D) but still +8.6% 3M and above SMA200 — the best-positioned metals name IF it bases; watch SMA200 ($74) hold |
| FXI | $31.63 | 23.3 ↓ | -10.85% | China most-oversold (RSI 23), but strong-down, -16% vs SMA200 — falling knife, not an uptrend dip |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | VTV, MTUM, RSP, QUAL, VUG, EWJ, VGK, EEM, XHB, ITB | US/intl factor + homebuilder ETFs in strong uptrends near highs — the risk-on tape |
| 🔍 WATCH | GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, COPX, TECK | Whole metals complex sold off together — washed but trend-broken; watch for floors + SMA reclaim |
| 🔍 WATCH | USO, BNO, UNG, URA | Crude + uranium breakdowns — oversold, no confirmed floor, contrarian only |
| 🔍 WATCH | DBA, WEAT, CORN, SOYB, FXI, EWZ, FXE, FXY, EWG | Ags / EM / currencies — weak-to-washed, no thrust; FXI most oversold (RSI 23) but strong-down |
| ⚠️ AVOID | UUP | Dollar RSI 74.7 breakout — overbought, the mirror of the selloff; don't chase |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | AGRO, UUUU, AA | Collapse / below-all-MAs / -29% 30D — structurally broken falling knives |
What Changed
- Metals-vs-energy divergence COLLAPSED — last week copper (COPX/TECK) diverged strong vs crude; this week COPX -13% 7D, TECK -10.7% 7D joined the crude+gold selloff. One broad commodity de-risk now.
- Gold broke below SMA200 — GLD now -9.5% vs SMA200 (was above last week), down regime; the precious complex (SLV -14% 7D, GDX/GDXJ -11% to -12% 7D) capitulated together.
- Dollar broke out — UUP RSI 74.7, breakout regime, +4.4% vs SMA200 — the clearest macro tell; consistent with metals/EM/crude weakness across the board.
- Crude kept bleeding — USO -20.2% 30D, BNO -21.7% 30D; both hold golden cross but trade deep below SMA20/50.
- AA gapped down — RSI 30.3, -29.1% 30D, -22.3% vs SMA20 (was -16.9% vs SMA20 / RSI 35.9 last week) — aluminum broke trend.
- US factor ETFs still leading — VTV/MTUM/RSP near 52wk highs, XHB/ITB homebuilders +13% 30D; the equity-risk side is intact while commodities de-risk.
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| COPX/TECK joined the crude+gold selloff (all -10% to -14% 7D) while UUP broke out RSI 74.7 | The metals-vs-energy split is gone — this is a dollar-strength / broad-commodity de-risk regime, not a rotation; treat commodity oversold readings as risk, not opportunity |
| GLD dropped below SMA200 for the first time this cycle while SLV hit collapse (-52% from high) | The precious-metals secular uptrend is being tested at the 200-day; a clean reclaim is the trend signal, a continued bleed is regime change |
| VTV/MTUM/XHB/ITB near 52wk highs while every commodity is down 7D | Risk-on equity tape intact; weakness is concentrated in commodities + Dollar-driven FX, not broad risk-off — homebuilders +13% 30D argue against a growth scare |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Catching SLV/GLD on "RSI 29 oversold" | Both broke below SMA200 into collapse/down regimes — oversold + trend-broken is watch, not buy; wait for the 200-day reclaim |
| Treating AGRO/UUUU RSI as contrarian entries | Collapse regimes below all MAs (-33% / -18% 3M) — no floor; oversold + collapsing = avoid |
| Reading COPX's +8.6% 3M as continued strength | Down -13% in one week into the group selloff — last week's leader is rolling; 3M strength is lagging, 7D is the tell |
Open Questions
- Is the synchronized commodity selloff (crude + metals + copper, with UUP breakout) a single macro driver — a dollar-liquidity / risk-off event — or coincident? (needs event verify — not in this scan)
- Does GLD's break below SMA200 mark a regime change or a flush within the secular gold uptrend (still +108% 3y)?
- Why are homebuilders (XHB/ITB +13% 30D) and US value (VTV near high) so strong against the commodity wreck — rate-cut / soft-landing positioning? (cross-check vs market-etfs / macro)
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.