Data as-of the 2026-07-24 settled close (Friday's close; this is a Saturday EOW read). Numbers read directly from macro-commodities — no prose math. Prior scan: 2026-07-17-macro-commodities (2026-07-17).

Oil keeps accelerating and the grain complex has joined it, but precious metals and the dollar are telling a different, and internally contradictory, story. USO's 30-day change went from a +7.9% breakout in the prior scan to +28.6% this week — the single sharpest move in the book, two scans running. Wheat, soy, and corn are all now RSI 63-73, pushing into or toward overbought. But the dollar (UUP) reversed its own cooling from last scan and re-firmed hard (RSI 54.4 → 64.3), and rather than metals catching the textbook inverse bid, GLD/SLV/GDX/SIL only staged a shallow, uneven bounce — none of them cleared their death-cross or collapse/strong-down tags. This remains a narrow, commodity-specific tape, not a single clean macro regime.

• USO's 30-day change nearly quadrupled from the prior scan's +7.9% to +28.6%, with RSI up to 67.2 from 58.9 — the crude side of the energy book keeps accelerating, not just holding a bounce.
• UNG stayed on the opposite side of the split, still strong-down and -37.7% from its 52-week high — natural gas continues not to confirm the crude move.

• All four names' RSI climbed off the prior scan's 34-40 band into the 43-47 range, and 30-day changes flipped from deeply negative (-4.8% to -14.7%) to roughly flat — a real bounce, but every name still carries a confirmed death cross and a strong-down trend tag.
• SLV remains the deepest drawdown in the group at -52.6% from its 52-week high, even after the bounce.
• This is the group most directly implicated by regime-signals.json's gld_uup_inverse gauge (see Cross-Asset Signals below) — the dollar firmed this week, which is the more textbook-consistent explanation for soft metals than last scan's "broken relationship" framing.

• Soybeans are now the hottest name in the book at RSI 72.9, edging into overbought and just -0.8% from its 52-week high, up from RSI 63.1 in the prior scan.
• Wheat cooled slightly off last scan's overbought edge (RSI 72.8 → 63.4) even as its 30-day gain grew to +12.8% — a pause inside the trend, not a reversal.
• Copper (COPX) remains the laggard of the group, RSI still under 50 and tagged weak-down despite a positive 7-day print.

URA bounced off the prior scan's edge-of-oversold reading (RSI 30.9 → 38.7) and its 30-day drawdown narrowed from -18.9% to -10.8% — still strong-down and no confirmed floor, but the deepening has paused.

• The dollar's RSI jumped from 54.4 to 64.3 this week — a clean re-firming, reversing the cooling flagged in the prior scan.
• Both euro (FXE) and yen (FXY) weakened as the dollar firmed — the more textbook-consistent currency read this week, in contrast to the metals side of the same dollar move.

Both names' 30-day drawdowns deepened again this week (XHB -2.4% → -5.1%, ITB -1.9% → -6.0%) — continued digestion, not capitulation, with neither name close to oversold.

• Japan (EWJ) and broad EM (EEM) both recovered some ground off last scan's sharp weakening (RSI 41.7 → 45.6 and 39.4 → 41.0), though EEM's 30-day print is still negative.
• China (FXI) kept climbing for a third straight scan (RSI 55.7 → 57.9), still the strongest name in the international book.
• India (INDA) is the new laggard this week, rolling into strong-down after being roughly flat two scans ago.

• Value (VTV) is the clear leader now, RSI up sharply to 63.5 from 54.5 — the best-positioned factor name, just -1.0% from its 52-week high.
• Momentum (MTUM) stayed the group's laggard, though its 30-day drawdown narrowed from -10.8% to -6.7% — still weak, but stabilizing.
• Growth (VUG) is now the weakest name in the group (RSI 40.1), continuing to lag value and quality.

This week's book still resists one clean label. Oil's acceleration (USO 30D +28.6%) and a broadly overbought-or-close grain complex (SOYB RSI 72.9, DBA 66.9, CORN 66.1, WEAT 63.4) both read inflation-flavored. But precious metals — the assets that would typically be first to price a durable inflation or crisis premium — only staged a shallow, uneven bounce: GLD and SLV remain death-crossed and strong-down, and GDX/SIL sit in outright collapse regimes, all still well off their 52-week highs. The dollar (UUP RSI 64.3) re-firmed hard rather than continuing to cool, which is a more conventional explanation for soft metals than the "broken relationship" flagged in the prior scan — but it also means this isn't a broad-based inflation trade, since a firming dollar alongside surging oil and grains is itself an unusual combination. Momentum stayed weak and housing's pullback deepened, arguing against calling this stagflationary either. Read together: a narrow, energy-and-grain-specific supply/demand impulse sitting alongside a re-firming dollar and continued softness in rate-sensitive housing and momentum — closer to a commodity-specific story than a clean macro regime call.

• USO's acceleration (RSI 58.9→67.2, 30D +7.9%→+28.6% since the prior scan) remains the single clearest, most persistent move in the book. UNG still hasn't confirmed (still strong-down, -37.7% from its 52-week high), so this stays an oil-specific story.
• The dollar's re-firming (UUP RSI 54.4→64.3) is the more textbook-consistent explanation for this week's shallow metals bounce than the "broken relationship" framing from the prior scan — but GLD/SLV/GDX/SIL all remain death-crossed or in collapse, so the bounce isn't yet a confirmed reversal.
• regime-signals's gld_uup_inverse gauge reads gold_breakdown_dollar_firm (risk-on band, warning severity) — GLD ($371.90) sits under its flagged hard-breakdown level ($410) while UUP ($28.58) sits above its firmness invalidator ($27.10). The gauge's own fired flag is still false, so treat this as a state read, not a confirmed trigger.
• The same file's sector_rs_rotation gauge is actively firing (defensives_bidding, risk-off band, -2.5 cyclical-minus-defensive 30-day spread) — yet energy (XLE, +11.3% 30D) sits at the very top of that same sector basket, a reminder that a "defensive" rotation label and single-sector strength can point in different directions inside one gauge.
• Grains are now broadly overbought or close to it alongside oil — the clearest inflation-adjacent cluster in this scan.

• Whether GLD/SLV/GDX/SIL's shallow bounce turns into a confirmed reversal (death cross still active on all four) or fades again as the dollar's re-firming continues.
• SOYB and DBA pressing further into overbought territory (RSI 70+) — a stall or reversal there would be the first crack in the grain-and-oil inflation cluster.
• Whether the gld_uup_inverse regime gauge actually trips fired: true on a future run, given GLD is already under its flagged hard-breakdown level.
• URA's pause in deepening (30D -18.9% → -10.8%) — worth checking whether uranium is basing or just breathing before another leg down.