raw scansnapshot — prices as of scan date, not live46 rows · screens, not recommendations
Data as-of the 2026-08-07 settled close (Friday's close). Numbers read directly from macro-commodities — no prose math.
The book's two biggest signals flipped from last scan: oil sold off hard while precious metals finally caught the bid that was missing a week ago.USO fell to RSI 46.3 (weak-down) on a -8.66% weekly slide, following dated coverage of reported US-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg, Aug 3 — "Oil Slips as Trump Says Iran, US in Talks Over Hormuz Reopening"; CNBC, Aug 4 — oil tumbled after Treasury Secretary Bessent said a Hormuz deal could come that week). Gold (GLD, RSI 65.3), silver (SLV, RSI 60.0), and the miners (GDX RSI 70.3, SIL RSI 67.1) all ripped over the same window — GDX's +21.31% seven-day gain is the single largest move anywhere in this file, and GDX is now the only name in the book crossing into overbought territory. Dated coverage frames the metals move as a rates story riding the same Hormuz headlines (Bloomberg, Aug 3-4 — gold gains tied to fading Fed rate-hike bets as Hormuz talks progressed), not a classic fear trade. Currencies stayed lopsided against a still-soft dollar (UUP RSI 39.5, weak-down), housing snapped back hard (XHB and ITB both flipped positive on the week after last scan's downtrend), and the broad equity factor sleeve (VGK, VTV, QUAL, RSP) rotated into breakout regimes across the board.
Quick Snapshot
Signal
Reading
Overall
🟡 Risk-on rotation — precious metals now the hottest sleeve in the book, oil gave back its entire prior-scan gain
Key insight
GLD/SLV/GDX/SIL reversed from dead last scan (all mid-40s RSI, falling) to the strongest reads in the file this scan; GDX alone crossed overbought
USO's trend flipped from last scan's strong-up to weak-down on a -8.66% weekly slide — the single sharpest reversal anywhere in the energy complex, coinciding with dated coverage of reported US-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
UNG remains the weakest reading in the file's energy sleeve, now in a collapse regime and -42.81% from its 52-week high — still fully decoupled from crude.
All four names reversed together — every one flipped from a death-crossed downtrend last scan to a positive week, with GDX (+7.15% on the latest session alone) and SIL (+6.29%) posting the two largest single-day moves in the entire file.
GDX is now the only outright overbought reading in this scan (RSI 70.3) after a +21.31% week — the fastest a name in this book has moved from mid-40s RSI to overbought in this series.
Dated coverage frames this as a rates-and-flows story tied to the same Hormuz headlines moving oil, not a fear trade: Bloomberg (Aug 3-4) links the gold advance to fading Fed rate-hike bets as the Hormuz talks progressed, and a technical breakout added momentum on top.
Copper (COPX) is the standout of the group — RSI 66.1, +20.52% over 30 days, the strongest reading outside precious metals in this entire file.
The grain complex (WEAT, CORN, SOYB, DBA) remains a tight, unremarkable 45-51 RSI band with 30-day prints flat to modestly positive — no shared directional signal this scan, consistent with last scan's read.
URA posted the sharpest weekly gain outside precious metals (+14.95%), flipping from strong-down (collapse) last scan to weak-up — though its own regime tag still reads downtrend and it remains -31.13% from its 52-week high, an internal disagreement worth tracking rather than trusting outright.
The dollar (UUP) stayed the softest reading in this section at RSI 39.5, essentially unchanged from last scan's 41.9 — the weak-dollar read has held for a second straight scan.
The euro (FXE) and yen (FXY) both cooled slightly off last scan's highs (FXE 62.9→62.6, FXY 69.7→67.6) but remain the stronger side of the divergence against the dollar.
Both housing ETFs reversed hard off last scan's downtrend — XHB flipped from down to strong-up and ITB from strong-down to up, each posting their largest weekly gains in this series. This is the sharpest domestic-sleeve reversal in the file outside precious metals.
VGK is now tagged breakout at RSI 67.9, the strongest regime read in the international sleeve; EWG and EWJ both posted solid weekly gains (EWG +2.73%, EWJ +4.88%).
EWZ is the region's clear laggard this scan, cooling from RSI 59.4 last scan to 45.9 on a -3.57% weekly pullback — the one negative-7-day name in this section.
FXI's internal disagreement persists: RSI 64.7 (down from 72.0 last scan) against a downtrend regime tag that still hasn't confirmed the price strength — the same caution flag as last scan.
Growth (VUG, RSI 63.6) and value (VTV, RSI 64.9, breakout) both firmed hard off last scan's near-50 readings — the factor rotation this scan is a broad risk-on move rather than a growth/value split.
Quality (QUAL) and equal-weight (RSP) both moved into breakout regimes alongside VTV; momentum (MTUM) remains the laggard factor at RSI 50.1, still negative on 30 days.
What the Commodities Are Telling Us
This scan reads as a rate-cut-driven rotation, not a fear or inflation trade. Oil sold off hard (USO -8.66% on the week) on reported progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a supply-side de-risking, not demand weakness. Precious metals rallied just as hard on the same headline window, but dated coverage attributes the gold move specifically to fading Fed rate-hike expectations rather than safe-haven flows — a genuinely different mechanism than a classic flight-to-quality bid. Housing (XHB, ITB) reversed from a downtrend into its strongest weekly gains in this series, consistent with a rate-sensitive sector repricing on the same dovish-Fed read. The broad equity factor sleeve rotated into breakout regimes across growth, value, quality, and equal-weight simultaneously — a uniformly risk-on tape, not a defensive rotation. The one component that doesn't fit this story is the grain complex, which stayed flat and unremarkable, and copper (COPX, RSI 66.1, +20.52% 30D), which kept climbing independent of the rates narrative — most consistent with an industrial-demand read rather than a rate-cut read.
Cross-Asset Signals
Gold's rally alongside a falling dollar (UUP RSI 39.5) is the textbook inverse-dollar playbook working this scan — the exact confirmation that was missing last week when GLD, SLV, and GDX all fell even as the dollar rolled over.
Housing (XHB/ITB) and the equity factor sleeve (VTV/QUAL/RSP, all breakout) moved together this scan — both readings consistent with a market pricing in easier Fed policy, the same driver dated coverage attributes to the gold move.
FXI's regime/trend disagreement (RSI 64.7, weak-up trend vs downtrend regime tag) persists for a second straight scan — still the one data point in this file arguing for caution over confirmation.
Copper (COPX +20.52% 30D) and uranium (URA +14.95% 7D) both strengthened independent of the rates/Hormuz story — an industrial-materials bid that doesn't trace to the same catalyst as the metals-and-housing move.
Only overbought reading in the book (RSI 70.3), +22.25% over 30 days — extended fast
📈 ACCUMULATE ON WEAKNESS
SLV, SIL
Still -49.4% / -29.8% off 52-week highs even after this week's rip — room to add on any pullback
🔒 HOLD / PARTICIPATE
VGK, VTV, QUAL, RSP
Broad `breakout` regime tags across equity factors, none individually extended
🔍 WATCH
FXI, URA
Internal regime/trend disagreement (FXI) or still tagged `downtrend` despite a strong week (URA)
⏳ WAITING ON CONFIRMATION
USO, XHB, ITB
Directional readings just reversed (oil down, housing up) — one more scan needed to confirm the new trend holds
What To Watch Next
Whether GDX's move into overbought (RSI 70.3) extends or cools — the fastest a name in this book has crossed from mid-40s RSI to overbought in this series.
Whether oil's reversal (USO RSI 46.3, weak-down) holds if the reported Hormuz talks progress further, or bounces back if talks stall.
Whether the housing reversal (XHB, ITB) is a durable rate-cut repricing or a one-week bounce — worth confirming against the next scan's Fed-outlook read.
FXI's persistent regime/trend disagreement (weak-up trend, downtrend regime) — a second consecutive scan flagging the same internal split.
Whether copper and uranium's independent strength (COPX +20.52% 30D, URA +14.95% 7D) is early evidence of a broader industrial-materials bid separate from the rates story.