Data as-of the 2026-09-04 settled close. Numbers read directly from macro-commodities — no prose math.

Oil ripped higher on live US-Iran escalation this week while gold — the asset that's supposed to catch a war bid — kept sliding further below its own 200-day. That split is the story of this scan. USO is +9.59% on the week and +23.57% on the month, now +91.37% over the trailing year and 32.1% above its 200-day; Bloomberg reported oil headed for its "biggest weekly gain since July" on renewed US-Iran hostilities (Sept 3), and hedge funds "hiked bullish oil bets to a May high" on the same theme (Bloomberg, Sept 4). Gold (GLD) moved the opposite way even as the war intensified: RSI cooled to 52.4, the 30-day gain is a modest +4.4%, and it sits 2.1% below its 200-day, worse than the prior scan's -1.4%. Yahoo Finance's Sept 2 headline — "Gold Rises Off a Seven-Month Low on Hopes a U.S.-Iran Peace Deal is Near" — ties gold's recent bounce to peace-deal hope, not war fear, consistent with an Aug 12 gold-outlook piece on file that frames the metal against Fed rate-hike odds rather than geopolitics. Housing (XHB, ITB) got measurably worse this week as global bond yields "soared to multi-decade highs" on Middle East-driven inflation fears (CNBC, Sept 1) — the rate-sensitive corner of this file taking the other side of the same trade that's lifting oil.

• USO jumped +9.59% this week and is now +91.37% over the trailing year, up from +72.38% just one scan ago — the sharpest week-over-week acceleration in this file, matching MarketWatch's Sept 1 report of oil surging to a six-week high after US strikes on Iran-linked targets in the Strait of Hormuz.
• UNG stays the sector's outlier: still negative on the trailing year (-19.39%) and 10.0% below its 200-day despite a small bounce — natural gas isn't participating in the crude-driven move.

• GLD is the clearest counter-narrative in the whole file: a live shooting war between the US and Iran, and gold's 200-day gap widened from -1.4% to -2.1% while its trailing-year gain cooled from +29.79% to +24.51%. The level to watch is its own 200-day, $415.44 (currently $406.77).
• SLV remains the deepest laggard on a trend basis (-8.4% vs its 200-day) despite a strong trailing year (+61.98%).
• GDX and SIL both cooled from the prior scan's extension while still up double digits on the month — an intact trend, not a reversal, but neither is confirming a fresh haven bid either.

• The grain complex cooled sharply from last scan's extreme readings (WEAT RSI 78.9→56.2, DBA 72.8→58.7) even as CORN (71.3) and SOYB (73.4) stay extended — momentum unwinding from the edges in, not all at once.
• Copper (COPX) pulled back -4.01% on the week but remains the strongest structural trend in the file at +80.81% 1Y and +12.3% above its 200-day.
• No dated catalyst is on file for the grain complex's cooldown this week — cause unknown.

• URA edged up on the week and month but remains 5.0% below its own 200-day — a trend still testing its average from underneath, not confirmed back in force.

• The dollar (UUP) is essentially flat over the year (+1.96%) — this oil/inflation move isn't a currency-debasement story.
• The yen (FXY) is the mover here, up +2.50% on the week and flipping from below to above its own 200-day (+1.2%, from -1.3% last scan) — notable given Bloomberg's Sept 1 report that Japan's 10-year yield hit its highest since 1996 alongside the global bond selloff.

• Both housing ETFs deepened their trailing-year losses versus the prior scan (XHB -8.57%→-11.91%, ITB -12.91%→-17.75%) in the same week CNBC reported global bond yields soaring to multi-decade highs on Middle East-driven inflation fears (Sept 1) — the rate-sensitive side of the same trade lifting oil.
• Neither carries a resolved thesis view (thesis: no-view on both).

• EWZ is the mover: +6.47% on the week, RSI up to 69.3, and now +5.4% above its 200-day versus -0.8% last scan — the sharpest single-name flip in this section.
• INDA and FXI remain the two genuine long-horizon laggards, both negative on the trailing year and below their own 200-days. INDA's thesisState still reads intact even as the price data argues otherwise — that disagreement stays unresolved, not silently waved through.
• EEM continues to post the largest trailing-year gain in the section (+37.81%, +11.3% above its 200-day).

• Value (VTV) keeps its lead over growth (VUG) on a relative basis: alpha1y +5.00 versus -4.27, unchanged in direction from the prior scan.
• MTUM's short-window classifier reads weak-down in a pullback regime (RSI 49.6, 30D -1.65%), but it's +24.46% over the trailing year and +9.3% above its own 200-day — a pullback inside an intact trend, not a breakdown. Its relative edge (alpha1y +5.81) actually improved from +1.80 last scan.
• The broad factor book was roughly flat week-over-week (all five names within +/-1.74% on 7D) even as oil and defense both moved sharply — this week's dislocation is concentrated in commodities and rate-sensitive names, not the broad equity factor book.

This scan reads as an inflation/rates shock, not a fear shock. Oil (USO +91.37% 1Y, accelerating this week) and copper (COPX +80.81% 1Y) both point to a hard-asset complex still running hot on real demand/supply tightness, and the war headlines this week (MarketWatch, Bloomberg, CNBC — all cited above) are a live, dated accelerant on oil specifically. What's missing is the haven leg: gold slipped further below its 200-day in the same week, and the housing/rate-sensitive sleeve (XHB, ITB) got measurably worse as bond yields spiked globally on the same inflation fear that's lifting oil. That combination — oil up, rates up, gold not confirming — argues the market is pricing a supply-driven inflation problem the Fed will have to answer with higher rates, not a flight-to-safety event. The grain complex's sharp cooldown from extreme momentum (WEAT, DBA both down from RSI 70+ to the mid-50s) is the one piece of this file moving opposite the broader script, with no dated catalyst on file to explain it — cause unknown.

• Gold (GLD) failing to catch a bid during a live, escalating US-Iran war — and instead cooling further below its 200-day — is the most important signal in this file. The Sept 2 Yahoo Finance headline ties gold's recent bounce to peace-deal hope, and an Aug 12 file item frames it against Fed rate-hike odds; neither supports a war-fear read.
• Oil (USO) and the yen (FXY) both moved sharply this week in ways consistent with the dated bond-selloff/inflation-fear coverage (CNBC, Bloomberg, Sept 1) — a coherent, sourced cross-asset story, not a coincidence.
• Housing's continued deterioration (XHB, ITB both worse on the trailing year versus the prior scan) is the clearest read-through of the bond-yield spike into a rate-sensitive equity sector.
• The broad factor-rotation book (VUG/VTV/MTUM/QUAL/RSP) stayed calm this week — the dislocation is concentrated in commodities and rates, not broad equities yet.

• 🔍 Watch — extended, war-driven — USO ($141.96, RSI 66.2): +91.37% 1Y and accelerating; not a pullback entry at this RSI, but the trend is confirmed and well above its 200-day.
• 🔍 Watch — trend under test — GLD ($406.77, RSI 52.4): 2.1% below its 200-day ($415.44) during a live war escalation — the level to watch, not a buy signal on RSI alone.
• ⚠️ Avoid / rate-sensitive — XHB / ITB (RSI 43.1 / 43.0, both negative 1Y and worsening): the bond-yield spike this week is a headwind, not a bottom signal.
• 🔍 Watch — momentum cooling — WEAT / DBA (RSI 56.2 / 58.7, down sharply from prior-scan extremes): worth tracking whether the grain complex's cooldown continues or reverses.

Versus the 2026-08-28 scan: oil is the headline mover — USO's 7-day change flipped from -3.73% to +9.59% and its trailing year jumped from +72.38% to +91.37%, tracking the dated US-Iran escalation. Gold moved the other way: GLD's 200-day gap widened from -1.4% to -2.1% and its trailing-year gain cooled from +29.79% to +24.51%. The grain complex reversed hard from extreme momentum — WEAT's RSI fell from 78.9 to 56.2, DBA's from 72.8 to 58.7 — while CORN (74.7→71.3) and SOYB (75.3→73.4) stayed extended. Housing deepened its trailing-year losses on both names (XHB -8.57%→-11.91%, ITB -12.91%→-17.75%). EWZ was the sharpest single-name flip, from -0.8% vs its 200-day to +5.4%. The broad factor-rotation book was comparatively stable week over week.

• Whether GLD's growing gap below its 200-day ($415.44) closes or widens as the Iran war continues — the single clearest test of whether this is an inflation story or eventually becomes a fear story too.
• Whether oil's acceleration (USO +91.37% 1Y) continues if the war escalates further, per Bloomberg's Sept 4 report of hedge funds at their most bullish on Brent since May.
• Whether housing's worsening trend (XHB, ITB) stabilizes or keeps deteriorating as bond yields respond to Fed rate-hike bets tied to oil-driven inflation.
• Whether the grain complex's sudden cooldown (WEAT, DBA) resolves into a deeper pullback or a re-acceleration — no catalyst on file either way.