Data as-of the 2026-10-09 settled close. World facts carry their own dates (October 4–8); no October 9 captures or news pulls are in the corpus, so Friday's single-day moves have no cause on file.

Brazil was the week's one breakout, up 14.01% over five sessions after the first-round election result. Everything else held last week's shape: oil's long trends are intact, all five metals funds are still under their 200-day averages despite a broad Friday bounce, the dollar closed at RSI 69.9 within 0.21% of its 52-week high, and uranium and the homebuilders stay broken. The one repair is in factor funds: value ($VTV) and equal weight ($RSP) climbed out of oversold. The rate backdrop hardened. The Fed's minutes, released October 7, showed all 19 officials behind September's hike (Bloomberg), and St. Louis Fed President Musalem said on October 8 that rates may need to rise again within six to nine months (Bloomberg).

Brazil's fund was the outlier. It rose 14.01% over five sessions to RSI 76.2, closing 0.82% under its 52-week high and 18.7% above its 200-day. The move started Monday, October 5, after the first round left Bolsonaro the heavy favorite against Lula in an October 25 runoff (CNBC, October 5). Bloomberg (October 6) wrote that the rally hinges on fiscal fixes Flávio Bolsonaro has yet to lay out. Friday added 2.23% on 1.47 times normal volume with no October 9 item on file. It is a breakout sitting 12.3% above its 20-day: one to let come back, not one to chase.

Rates and the dollar still set the tone for havens. The 10-year was 5.28% on October 7 (FRED, as carried in the October 8 market brief). Bloomberg (October 7) had the dollar nearing a new high for the year as investors sought safety, and the dollar fund closed the week at RSI 69.9. All five metals funds remain under their 200-day averages. Bloomberg (October 7) reported gold rising from a two-month low after Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the midterms, though the gold fund closed that session down 1.67% (October 7 market brief). Friday brought a broad metals bid: gold +1.57%, silver +2.49%, the miners +2.56% to +3.18%. No October 9 cause is on file. The miners are now closest to repair: $GDX sits 2% under its 200-day, $GDXJ 4.3% and $SIL 4.9%, against 7.5% for bullion and 16.7% for silver.

Oil traded the war week in both directions and finished slightly higher: the US crude fund up 0.56% and the Brent fund up 1.41% over five sessions. Crude fell October 5 as Hormuz traffic rebounded alongside the G7 stock release (Semafor) and Saudi Arabia cut prices for Asian buyers (Bloomberg, October 4). It rose again October 7–8 as Iran stepped up tanker attacks, Houthi missiles hit Riyadh for a second day and a hurricane threatened US Gulf output (CNBC; Semafor, October 8). Natural gas rose 5.16% on the week and narrowed its gap under the 200-day to 2.8%. News pulled October 8 for the gas fund holds only quote and filing pages, so the cause is unknown.

Copper names jumped Friday ($TECK +4.98%, $COPX +4.29%) after a flat week. Bloomberg (October 7) had copper edging up on a Chilean mine strike, and Teck filed 6-Ks on October 7 and 8 whose bodies are unread; Friday's cause is not on file. Uranium kept breaking: $UUUU lost 7.18% on the week to RSI 29.4, 41.5% under its 200-day, after the nuclear lane sold as a block on October 7 with no cause found (October 7 market brief).

Against the October 2 edition (its readings are history, quoted for comparison only):

• Brazil broke out. $EWZ moved from an intact trend to a breakout, up 14.01% on the week; it is now the only fund on this board above RSI 75.
• Value and equal weight left oversold. $VTV and $RSP had RSI in the mid-30s on October 2; both closed near 50 after gains of 1.55% and 1.58%. Momentum ($MTUM) slipped 0.89%, so the growth-versus-breadth gap narrowed on the week.
• The dollar eased just under RSI 70 (69.9, from just over 70) while closing within 0.21% of its 52-week high.
• The euro left capitulation-tier RSI. $FXE is at 26.4, still oversold and in a downtrend; CNBC (October 5) had the euro at a 17-month low on Spanish and French political strain.
• The yen slipped under its 200-day. $FXY was barely holding its line on October 2; it now sits 0.1% under.
• Metals: still five of five under their 200-days. The miners' gaps are the smallest in the group after Friday's bounce.
• Uranium deteriorated again. $UUUU and $URA both lower on the week.
• Japan reclassified to an uptrend while staying above its 200-day; $AA moved from a collapse to a downtrend classification but is still 27% under its 200-day.
• Celanese's trailing year is back positive (+6.66%) after turning negative last week. With the stock up only 1.88% on the week, the flip most likely reflects the one-year window rolling forward; it is still 12.3% under its 200-day.

Eighteen of 37 names close above their 200-day averages.

The tables are raw screen evidence from the October 9 settled close. RSI and the trend label are short-window classifiers; the one-year and vs-200-day columns decide whether a weak week is a flag inside an intact trend or a genuine break. Names above their 200-day with large positive years (the oil funds, $TECK, $SOYB, $EWZ, $EWJ, $EEM, the factor funds) are pullbacks at worst. Names below it (metals, uranium, housing, Europe, India, China, natural gas) have a long trend under test or broken, and the 200-day is the line to watch. Every row is a US-listed fund or stock dated October 9.

• Brent is the leader: 1.43% under its 52-week high on a 116.11% year. The US crude fund sits just under its 20-day: a pause inside a trend 26.5% above its 200-day, not a break.
• The war headlines ran both ways this week (traffic rebound and stock releases on October 5; tanker attacks, Riyadh strikes and a hurricane on October 7–8), and the oil funds ended close to flat. The tape is pricing a standoff, not a resolution.
• Natural gas is the only energy fund under its 200-day. A close back above that line would end a downtrend that is still −13.58% on the year.

• All five are still positive on the year but under their 200-days: long trends under test, not yet broken. Silver is 50.12% under its 52-week high, gold 24.55%.
• Friday's bounce (gold +1.57%, miners +2.56% to +3.18%) came with the dollar fund also up on the day, so it was not a weak-dollar move; the cause is not on file.
• Bloomberg's October 7 report of gold rising from a two-month low followed Trump's pledge not to attack Iran before the midterms, a de-escalation headline rather than an escalation one. Central banks added 39 tonnes in August, a fifth straight monthly purchase (The Kobeissi Letter, as relayed in the October 7 market brief).

• Copper's trend held: $COPX closed on its 20-day and 2.9% above its 200-day, and $TECK sits 14.5% above its own on a 55.08% year. A Chilean mine strike was the supply item on file (Bloomberg, October 7).
• Alcoa stays the deep drawdown, 27% under its 200-day and 49.99% off its high. It is scheduled to report October 15 after the close (provider date).
• Corn is the agriculture fund to watch: RSI 33.5 with only a 1.4% cushion over its 200-day. Soybeans remain the intact trend.

• The October 6 nuclear-power rally (Constellation's Google deal, MarketWatch and Bloomberg; Vistra's federal loan, per the October 6 market brief) lifted the fuel names for one session. The lane reversed October 7 with no cause on file, and both funds ended the week lower.
• The October 8 market brief's rotation map had money moving out of the nuclear fuel cycle over the month. Both names are down on the year with negative alpha: broken, not pulled back.

• The dollar's bid has a safety leg and a Europe leg: Bloomberg (October 5) tied its strength to European debt risk, and (October 7) to Middle East tension.
• The euro's weakness has dated causes in France and Spain: a 17-month low on political strain (CNBC, October 5) and the IMF chief's "get your house in order" warning to France (CNBC, October 7).
• The yen sits on its 200-day after Japan's 30-year yield hit a record (Semafor, October 5): a coin-flip, not a trend.

• The builder funds fell 2% and 2.17% on the week and sit 10.5% and 12.6% under their 200-days on negative years.
• With the 10-year above 5% since mid-September and the Fed minutes pointing to another hike (CNBC, October 7), there is no rate relief on file to repair them.

• Brazil is the breakout; Japan and the broad emerging-markets fund are the intact trends. Bloomberg (October 7) had emerging markets snapping a weekly advance as Hormuz attacks pushed oil and the dollar up.
• China's fund rose 3.16% on the week and 2.36% Friday on 1.84 times volume, but it is still 5.2% under its 200-day on a −15.48% year: a bounce, not a repair. Germany traded 3.33 times its normal volume Friday on a 0.71% gain; neither move has a cause on file.
• India remains broken: RSI 33.9, 7.3% under its 200-day, −12.84% on the year.

• All five factor funds sit above their 200-days. Quality closed 0.15% under its 52-week high at RSI 65.2.
• Equal weight and value outgained momentum on the week. The October 8 market brief recorded the equal-weight fund rising on the day the AI-hardware cohort sold on OpenAI's revenue report (CNBC, October 8).

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — none. The euro left this tier on the week.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $FXE, $UUUU, $CORN, $INDA, $AA, $ITB, $VGK, $EWG, $XHB, $WEAT, $URA. Only $CORN and $WEAT are still above their 200-days; the rest are under them, so the low RSI marks damage, not a dip in an uptrend.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+) — the oil funds, natural gas, all five metals funds, copper, $DBA, $SOYB, $AGRO, $CE, $FXY, $EWJ, $FXI, $EEM and the five factor funds. $UUP sits at 69.9; $EWZ at 76.2 is the only reading over 70.

Conditions, not orders: each zone names a level and the confirmation it needs.

The mix still leans stagflationary. Energy is the inflationary leg: oil's one-year gains are the largest on this board, the Brent fund is near its high, and CNBC (October 7) reported heating-oil bills could rise 21% this winter on a tight diesel market. The Fed is treating that as a reason to stay tight: unanimous on September's hike, with another expected (Bloomberg, CNBC, October 7). Gold and silver are not behaving as inflation hedges. They sit under their 200-days with the dollar at its high, a pattern that fits real yields more than war risk as the driver; the 10-year real yield was 2.92% on October 7 (FRED, via the October 8 market brief). Copper's intact trend and the Chilean strike argue that industrial demand is not cracking. Uranium and the homebuilders are the broken, rate- and sentiment-sensitive side.

• Dollar at its high with metals under their lines. A dollar roll-over is what would let gold, the miners and emerging markets repair; nothing on file points to one yet.
• Friday's metals-and-copper bid with the dollar also up is the anomaly of the week. Without an October 9 receipt it is a one-day move, not a regime change.
• Brazil versus India and China. Event money went to Brazil on its election; India and China stay under their 200-days.
• Value and equal weight caught up. The breadth gap that defined late September narrowed this week.
• Euro weakness tracks French and Spanish politics (CNBC, October 5 and 7), and Europe's two equity funds remain under their 200-days.

• September CPI, scheduled October 14. A hot print would test the dollar's high and keep metals under their lines.
• The miners' 200-day lines. $GDX needs 2% to reclaim; a close above would be the first metals repair since late September.
• Brazil's October 25 runoff and whether $EWZ holds its 20-day into it.
• Hormuz: tanker attacks against stock releases. The October 7–8 attacks and the October 8 hurricane threat to Gulf output (CNBC) against the G7 and IEA diesel releases (Semafor, October 5; CNBC, October 7).
• $UUP at RSI 70 and its 52-week high: a breakout or a reversal.
• Alcoa's report, scheduled October 15 after the close (provider date), the first read on aluminum for the quarter.
• Missing receipts. October 9 captures and news pulls, needed to explain Friday's metals, copper, China and Germany moves.

• macro-commodities (2026-10-09 settled close, fetched 2026-10-09 20:34 UTC; every table value via bindings)
• 2026-10-02-macro-commodities (prior edition, comparison basis)
• 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-09.json (classification changes)
• 2026-10-08-market-brief (FRED 10-year and real yield as of October 7, OpenAI-report session, rotation map, Gulf strikes); 2026-10-07-market-brief (Fed minutes, nuclear selloff, central-bank gold buying); 2026-10-06-market-brief (nuclear-power rally); 2026-10-05-market-brief (Brazil, euro, oil on October 5)
• Captures: CNBC, Brazilian stocks jump as Bolsonaro now seen as heavy favorite; Bloomberg, Brazil market euphoria hinges on fixes; CNBC, euro hits 17-month low; Bloomberg, gold steadies as dollar strengthens on European debt risks; Semafor, oil drops as Hormuz traffic rebounds; Bloomberg, oil news for October 5; Semafor, Takaichi on Japan's fiscal worries; Bloomberg, dollar nears new high of the year; Bloomberg, gold rises after Trump says US won't attack Iran before midterms; Bloomberg, Fed minutes show hawkish unity; CNBC, Fed officials see another hike coming; Bloomberg, Musalem on rates; Bloomberg, copper edges higher on Chile mine strike; Bloomberg, emerging-market assets snap rally; CNBC, home heating oil prices soaring; CNBC, oil falls as IEA members prioritize diesel release; CNBC, IMF warning for France; CNBC, oil jumps as Iran steps up tanker attacks, hurricane threatens Gulf production; Semafor, Houthi strikes on Riyadh; CNBC, AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report; MarketWatch, Google's nuclear bet
• Filings (bodies unread): SEC, Teck 6-K filed October 7; SEC, Teck 6-K filed October 8
• Event calendar: 2026-10-15-aa-earnings (provider date). CPI date: BLS schedule as carried in the October 8 market brief.
• News receipts checked: pulled October 8 for USO, BNO, UNG, GLD, DBA, WEAT, CORN, SOYB, RSP (quote, filing and fund pages; nothing dated October 9); older pulls for TECK (September 9), COPX (July 7), GDX (September 24), UUUU (September 19), URA (September 25), EWZ (October 5), FXI (October 1), EWG (June 21). DBO has no news file. research/stock-events/ has no entry dated October 3–9 for any name on this board. No October 9 article, tweet, Reddit or filing captures exist.