Data as-of the 2026-09-25 settled close.

Against Wednesday's close, this is a book pausing rather than turning: oil found a floor as US-Iran diplomacy on reopening the Strait of Hormuz kept moving, the dollar's first overbought print eased back under RSI 70, and the yen — which lost its 200-day two scans ago — is back above it. The one real structural change is in agriculture: the broad fund lost its 200-day outright, joining uranium and the miners as places where the cushion kept shrinking rather than holding. Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007 on Thursday, September 24 — the desk's own Monday-through-Friday coverage clocked the 10-year above 5.20% intraday, the 30-year at its highest since 2004, and the 30-year mortgage at 7.45% — yet gold and silver barely moved from where they sat two sessions ago, and housing actually improved. That combination is this file's clearest tell that the rates story and the war story are still running on separate tracks.

Two trading sessions passed since the September 23 edition, and the headline story from that scan — a single Iranian de-escalation report crushing oil's week — did not extend into a second leg down. Instead, Thursday's dated wires carried two more items on the same thread: Semafor reported the US and Iran are exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and separately reported Iran presented the US with a roadmap that echoes the countries' earlier ceasefire-and-reopening framework. Oil's own numbers reflect a partial stabilization rather than a reversal: the fund's price is essentially flat since Wednesday ($148.83 to $148.33), its 7-day reading improved from −4.7% to −3.57%, and the desk's own Thursday market brief clocked the fund up 2.86% that single session on what it called "mixed diplomacy" — Semafor had crude above $100 on the standing US-Iran deadlock the same day Bloomberg reported negotiators exploring the phased Hormuz deal. Both stories are true at once; the tape is reading them as a wash rather than a fresh leg in either direction.

The dollar is the second name worth tracking closely. Its RSI eased from 72.3 — the first overbought print in this file in months, two scans ago — to 68.1, a genuine cooling rather than a breakdown; its price and trailing-year return barely moved. That happened in the same window Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007: the desk's Thursday brief had the 10-year above 5.20% intraday (Kobeissi) after closing at 5.11% Wednesday (FRED), the 30-year at its highest since 2004, and the 30-year mortgage rate at 7.45%, the highest since April 2024. A dollar cooling off its own overbought read while long rates set a 19-year high is not the textbook pairing, and nothing on file explains the divergence — it is reported here as a fact, not a mechanism.

Gold and silver essentially held their ground rather than either closing the gap to their 200-day averages or widening it further: gold's gap moved from 5.6% to 5.5%, silver's from 11.8% to 11.9% — noise-level changes over two sessions, a pause in the erosion this file tracked over the prior two scans rather than a reversal of it. The miners kept losing a little more altitude — GDX's cushion down to 2% from 2.9%, GDXJ to 1.2% from 1.5%, SIL to 0.4% from 1.3%, the last of the three now barely holding its 200-day at all. The yen is the file's one clean reversal: it lost its 200-day two scans ago and is back above it now, +0.6% versus −0.2%, on a 1.07% single-day move today with no dated catalyst identified in this book.

The other real structural change is in agriculture. The broad fund lost its 200-day outright — from 1.1% above it to 3% below — while soybeans, corn and wheat all continued cooling without breaking anything. Aluminum kept sliding on both windows (RSI down to 32.3 from 34.7, now 26.2% below its 200-day), and Celanese kept adding to its trailing-year reversal (+17.9% from +13.83%) even as its own gap to the 200-day widened, from 5.2% to 8% — a name where the one-year read and the moving-average read are now telling different stories, and its two-year return remains deeply negative at −63.79%, a reminder that this reversal sits on top of a much larger prior decline. Devon Energy fell 3.78% today alone with no dated news covering the move; its last substantive pull predates this window.

Oil's week is looking less like a one-way giveback than it did Wednesday: the 30-day read actually improved to +16.47% as the worst days roll out of the window, and the trend is still up 92.66% on the year and 31% above its 200-day. Natural gas keeps closing the gap to its own 200-day average with no dated news attached to the move.

The divergence flagged across the prior two scans — miners above their 200-day, metals below — paused rather than resolved either way this window: gold and silver's gaps barely moved, while the miners kept losing a little more of their own cushion. None of the five funds carries a dated cause for either direction.

Copper cooled off its green week without breaking anything; both names remain comfortably inside intact uptrends. Alcoa is still the file's most violent drawdown, now with RSI down to 32.3 and 26.2% below its 200-day, with no dated news covering the slide. Celanese's reversal keeps adding to itself on the trailing year even as the gap to its 200-day widens — a name pulling in two directions on two different windows, and still down 63.79% on the two-year measure. The broad agriculture fund is the new break in this section: it crossed below its 200-day this window while every named crop inside it (soybeans, corn, wheat) stayed positive on the year.

The desk's own Thursday market brief flagged the broader uranium and nuclear-fuel lane selling as one group that session — 1 of 19 members up — with no dated cause identified anywhere in that read either; URA and Energy Fuels here fit the same pattern. Both funds got worse on every window that matters, not just the week.

The dollar's run to its first overbought print in months stopped short of RSI 70 this window, cooling to 68.1 without giving back its gains. The euro nudged out of the most extreme oversold reading in this file. The yen's reversal, flagged as a risk two scans ago, completed: it is back above its 200-day.

Both builders' funds extended their green stretch even as the desk's own Thursday brief had the 30-year mortgage rate at 7.45%, its highest since April 2024 — a genuine tension between the rate backdrop and the tape that this file cannot resolve with what's on file. Neither fund has reclaimed its 200-day or turned positive on the year.

Europe's broad fund widened its cushion back over the 200-day; Germany is a hair away from reclaiming its own line. India and China remain the two genuine long-horizon laggards in this block, both still worsening on the trailing year. Brazil and the broad emerging-markets fund are still the two clearest intact trends here.

Growth, momentum and quality all extended further; the equal-weight fund's RSI moved up marginally (34.6 to 36.1) but remains in the oversold band, consistent with the desk's own Thursday read that 646 of 1,117 tracked names fell that session even as the index barely moved.

Against the September 23 edition — two trading sessions, not a full week — in that scan's numbers versus today's:

• Oil stabilized rather than fell further. 7D improved from −4.7% to −3.57%; 30D jumped from +12.57% to +16.47% as the worst days rolled out of the window. The desk's Thursday brief clocked the fund up 2.86% that session on renewed reopening diplomacy (Semafor: phased Hormuz deal explored; Iran's roadmap echoes the earlier ceasefire framework).
• The dollar cooled off its overbought print without reversing. RSI 72.3 to 68.1, back under the 70 threshold, while its price and trailing-year return barely moved. This happened as Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007 (10-year above 5.20% intraday Thursday, per the desk's own coverage).
• The yen completed its reversal. 200-day gap −0.2% to +0.6% — back above the line it lost two scans ago.
• Gold and silver paused rather than continued widening. Gold's gap 5.6% to 5.5%, silver's 11.8% to 11.9% — noise-level moves, a pause in the erosion the prior two scans tracked.
• The miners kept losing a little more cushion. GDX 2.9% to 2.0%, GDXJ 1.5% to 1.2%, SIL 1.3% to 0.4% — SIL is now barely above its 200-day at all.
• Agriculture's broad fund lost its 200-day. AGRO's cushion flipped from +1.1% to −3.0%, the only outright break in this window.
• Celanese kept adding to its year while its 200-day gap widened. Trailing year +13.83% to +17.9%; 200-day gap −5.2% to −8.0% — two windows disagreeing on the same name.
• Aluminum's RSI fell further into the oversold band. 34.7 to 32.3, now approaching the capitulation line, with the 200-day gap deepening to −26.2%.
• Uranium kept getting worse on every measure. URA's trailing year −16.62% to −16.8%; UUUU's −30.41% to −34.24%. The desk's Thursday brief separately flagged the broader uranium/nuclear lane selling as a group with no dated cause identified.
• The dollar's extended tier emptied out. No name in this file closed above RSI 70 this time; two scans ago the dollar was the sole occupant.

RSI, the trend word and the regime label are short-window classifiers — they describe the last few sessions, not the thesis. The trailing-year and vs-200-day columns are the long-horizon check that decides whether a soft window is a flag or a break. A name above its 200-day with a large positive trailing year is in a deep pullback inside an intact trend no matter how quiet or ugly its recent sessions look; a name below its 200-day has its long trend genuinely under test; a name flat-or-down on the year is the actually broken one. Celanese this window is the clean illustration of why both windows matter at once: a trailing year that keeps improving and a 200-day gap that keeps widening are two different facts about the same stock, and neither one cancels the other.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — none.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $FXE (30.3), $AA (32.3), $UUUU (34.1), $RSP (36.1), $AGRO (39.4), $FXI (39.9). Five of these six are below their 200-day lines; $RSP (+2.8%) is the exception.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40 and above) — the remaining 30 names, running up to the dollar's 68.1.

Extended (RSI above 70) — none. Two scans ago the dollar alone occupied this tier; it cooled back under the line this window.

This window looks like a pause inside the same two-track regime the prior two scans described, not a resolution of either track. The rates mechanism kept grinding — Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007, mortgage rates their highest since April 2024 — yet gold, silver and housing did not move much in either direction, which argues the prior two scans' worth of erosion in those names had already priced a meaningful chunk of this week's yield move before it arrived. The war mechanism, meanwhile, went from a one-sided shock (the September 22 Hormuz-reopening report) to a two-sided diplomatic story (phased-deal exploration alongside a competing "crude above $100" narrative), and oil's own numbers read as a market genuinely uncertain which story wins, not one that has picked a side.

The dollar cooling off its own overbought print in the same week long rates set a multi-year high is the one genuine puzzle in this file. Two scans ago, a firm overbought dollar alongside a fading gold trade read as the market pricing the Fed and real yields ahead of the war story for havens. This window's data is consistent with that same frame continuing, just with the dollar itself taking a breather rather than extending — nothing here overturns the read, but nothing confirms why the RSI eased either.

• Treasury yields hit a 19-year high this window — the 10-year above 5.20% intraday Thursday, the 30-year at its highest since 2004, and the 30-year mortgage at 7.45% (all per the desk's own Thursday coverage) — while gold, silver and the housing funds barely moved. That combination argues those names had already absorbed a meaningful share of the rate move before this window began, rather than that rates stopped mattering to them.
• Oil's story split in two rather than resolved. The desk's Thursday brief had Semafor reporting crude above $100 on the standing US-Iran deadlock the same day Bloomberg reported negotiators exploring a phased Hormuz reopening — both true, pulling in opposite directions, netting to a stabilization rather than a fresh move either way.
• The dollar is still the single most important line in this file to watch next. Cooling from 72.3 to 68.1 without reversing means the standing headwind on commodities, emerging markets and precious metals neither eased decisively nor renewed.
• Uranium's sector-wide selloff has no identified cause. The desk's own Thursday market brief flagged the same pattern across 19 tracked uranium and nuclear names, 1 of which closed up, with nothing dated explaining it.
• Agriculture's broad fund breaking its 200-day while every named crop inside it stays positive on the year is a fund-construction detail worth tracking rather than a commodity-demand signal — it says nothing yet about whether the underlying crops are actually turning.

• Whether the Hormuz diplomatic thread converts into an actual agreement, or the competing "crude above $100 on the standing deadlock" framing wins out. Oil's stabilization this window depends on which story the market believes next.
• Whether the dollar's cooldown from overbought extends into an actual pullback. RSI 68.1 with Treasury yields still climbing is the swing factor for gold, emerging markets and the international block simultaneously.
• Gold's and silver's 200-day lines — $416.44 and roughly $65.9 — paused widening this window; whether that holds or resumes is still unresolved.
• Whether Celanese's diverging windows converge. The trailing year keeps improving while the 200-day gap keeps widening; a reclaim of $51.20 would resolve both in the same direction.
• Alcoa's RSI approaching capitulation at 32.3, now 26.2% below its $58.08 200-day, with no news pull covering the decline.
• Whether agriculture's broad-fund break at $11.51 (the 20-day) reverses or spreads to the individual crops still holding positive trends.

• macro-commodities (2026-09-25 close; every price, RSI, moving average and return above)
• 2026-09-23-macro-commodities (prior edition, comparison basis)
• 2026-09-24-market-brief (Treasury yield 19-year high, mortgage rate, PMI, oil's mixed-diplomacy rally, uranium/nuclear lane selloff, equal-weight breadth)
• 2026-09-24-semafor-us-iran-explore-phased-deal-to-reopen-hormuz-to-reopen-hormuz, 2026-09-24-semafor-iran-presents-us-with-roadmap-to-end-the-war-p-to-end-the-war (Hormuz diplomacy, dated September 24)
• News receipts checked and stale or quote-pages-only for this window's moves: latest (2026-09-19), latest (2026-09-19), latest (2026-09-24, resurfaced Q2 earnings page — does not cover this window's move), latest (2026-09-25, quote pages only), latest (2026-06-21, does not cover today's -3.78% move)