Data as-of the 2026-09-18 settled close.

The war spiked oil and the Fed took it back. Crude gave up the whole week even as it kept a 17.5% month, the dollar broke higher on the first rate hike since 2023, and the damage landed where rates always land it — housing, uranium and aluminum. Oil's fund closed $153.82, down 0.7% on the week but still +17.5% over thirty days and +105.94% over the trailing year; its heat drained from an RSI of 71.9 one week ago to 63.6. The dollar was the mover: RSI 48.7 to 63.1, now 1.0% above its 20-day and labelled strong-up. Gold and silver both caught a bid (+0.6% and +3.11% on the week) without reclaiming their 200-day lines. Uranium broke, its sector fund flipping negative on the trailing year, and aluminum fell 23.5% below its own 200-day average.

The Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point on Wednesday, its first hike since 2023, citing stubborn inflation (CNBC and Yahoo Finance, September 16), and the ten-year Treasury yield climbed back above 5% the same afternoon on Chairman Warsh's inflation-risk remarks (CNBC, September 16). The Bank of England went the other way on Thursday, holding rates even with UK inflation at 3.1% (CNBC, September 17). That split is visible directly in the currency block: the dollar fund closed $28.39, up 1.14% on the week at RSI 63.1 and 2.4% above its 200-day, while the euro fund fell to RSI 37.1 and slipped 1.2% below its own.

Oil is the week's round trip. Saudi Arabia shut its roughly 750-mile East-West pipeline after attacks, the alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC, September 13 and 14); US crude topped $105 as cargoes were cancelled (CNBC, September 15). Then the kingdom moved to restore the line and began offering prompt barrels including ship-to-ship transfers (Bloomberg, September 16 and 17; CNBC, September 17). The fund's tape matches the arc precisely — flat-to-lower on the week, still up 17.5% on the month. CNBC reported on September 15 that oil and the ten-year yield are moving in their tightest lockstep since 2019, which is the single most useful frame for this whole file: the same barrel that lifts the energy block lifts the yield that breaks the rate-sensitive one.

Rate-sensitives took the hit. Homebuilders fell to RSI 32.5 and 33.5, both roughly 10% below their 200-day averages and both worse on the month than a week ago. Uranium is the clean break: the sector fund's trailing-year return flipped from positive to −8.9%, it now trades 14.1% below its 200-day and 33.12% off its high, and Energy Fuels closed 32.5% below its own 200-day after a −9.65% week. The September 11 edition flagged uranium as the name most at risk of going from pullback to broken — it went. Aluminum is the other casualty: Alcoa fell 5.41% Friday alone and 7.94% on the week to 23.5% below its 200-day, in a name that is nonetheless still +35.79% on the trailing year.

Gold behaved but did not lead. Bullion's fund rose on Wednesday as Treasuries pared losses after the hike (Bloomberg, September 16) and finished the week +0.6% at RSI 50.6 — still 3.6% under its 200-day and 21.29% off its high. Silver did better at +3.11%. The miners are the stronger leg: all three mining funds sit above their 200-day lines while both metals sit below theirs. Copper steadied as traders shrugged off the hawkish messaging (Bloomberg, September 17) and both copper names cooled without breaking. In agriculture, soybeans were the only green name on the week, and the one dated item touching the block is China buying at least 1 million metric tons of US soybeans ahead of Xi Jinping's Washington visit (Semafor, September 15) — that is on the record, not established as the cause of any specific close.

Oil and Brent both round-tripped the Saudi disruption and both remain the strongest long-horizon trends in the file. Natural gas is the improvement nobody expected: it was labelled collapse a week ago and is now merely a downtrend, the only green week in the block, though still −17.84% on the year.

The metals rose and the miners fell this week, which is the reverse of Thursday's session and leaves the structural split intact: both metals below their 200-day averages, all three mining funds above theirs. Gold's gap to its 200-day narrowed from 4.1% to 3.6% and silver's from 11.4% to 8.9% — closing, not closed. Neither bullion fund has a desk view assigned.

Alcoa is the file's worst name and its most interesting: 23.5% below its 200-day and 47.35% off its high, yet still +35.79% on the trailing year with one-year performance well ahead of the market. That is a violent break inside a trend that has not yet turned negative — the 200-day is the line that decides it. Its most recent coverage on file is a September 11 report of a $5.6 billion deal to acquire South32's aluminum assets; the pull last completed that same day, so news was not pulled for this week's decline and the drop has no confirmed driver. Celanese is the only name here negative on the trailing year and 11.0% below its 200-day, with one-year performance behind the market — the genuinely broken one, not the loudest one. The broad agriculture fund cooled hardest in the block, from RSI 56.0 to 41.4, and its trend label flipped from strong-up to weak-down while its one-year performance sits behind the market.

The break the prior edition warned about arrived. The sector fund's trailing-year return went from +2.06% to −8.9%, it is 14.1% below its 200-day, and its one-year performance is now far behind the market. Energy Fuels is worse on every horizon and 58.06% off its high, though it remains +150% over two years. Neither move has a confirmed driver: the sector fund's news pull completed September 17 and returned quote pages only, and the Energy Fuels pull failed outright — that is a failed receipt, not evidence of no news. One dated item sits nearby without being established as a cause: Saudi Arabia disclosed a uranium find near Medina, with Beijing reportedly having helped build a yellowcake extraction facility (Semafor, September 17).

This is the block that changed most. The dollar went from RSI 48.7 and a weak-down label to RSI 63.1 and strong-up in one week — the Fed hike and the ten-year back at 5% are the dated events in that window. The yen's breakout died: RSI 70.4 to 51.7, −2.01% on the week, its cushion over the 200-day collapsing from 2.9% to 0.8%. Japanese corporate leaders were sounding alarms about a weak yen even after its two-week rally (CNBC, September 17).

Both builders' funds deepened their monthly losses in the week the Fed hiked. Both are negative on the trailing year with one-year performance far behind the market, and both sit about 10% below their 200-day lines. This is the clearest equity read-through of a 5% ten-year in the entire file. Neither carries a desk view.

Europe is the deterioration: the broad European fund fell to RSI 35.0 with its 200-day cushion shrinking from 3.3% to 1.0%, and Germany's slipped 0.5% below its own. India and China remain the two genuine long-horizon laggards — both negative on the trailing year, both below their 200-day, both with one-year performance far behind the market. India still carries an intact thesis label against a trailing-year return of −10.64%; that disagreement is unresolved and is not being waved through.

Growth and momentum took the leadership back from value this week — both were green, value and equal-weight were not. The equal-weight fund at RSI 36.3 and −4.4% on the month is the breadth warning: the average stock is doing materially worse than the cap-weighted tape.

Against the September 11 edition, in that scan's numbers versus today's:

• Oil cooled from extension. RSI 71.9 to 63.6, one-year +112.19% to +105.94%, the 200-day cushion 41.9% to 38.2%. The week the prior scan called "accelerating" ended flat.
• The dollar flipped. RSI 48.7 to 63.1, weak-down to strong-up; the euro RSI 50.7 to 37.1; the yen's breakout unwound, RSI 70.4 to 51.7.
• Uranium broke. One-year +2.06% to −8.9%, 200-day gap 10.3% to 14.1% below, pullback to downtrend. The prior scan named this as the risk; it resolved to the downside.
• Precious metals improved without fixing anything. Gold's 200-day gap narrowed 4.1% to 3.6%, silver's 11.4% to 8.9%, weekly returns flipped from −1.97% and −2.84% to +0.6% and +3.11%. Both still below.
• Natural gas stopped collapsing — collapse to downtrend, week −3.69% to +2.36%.
• Housing kept breaking: the builders' funds went from −9.13% and −8.79% on the month to −10.94% and −11.94%, with both 200-day gaps widening.
• Europe joined the laggards: the broad European fund RSI 41.7 to 35.0, Germany from 1.3% above its 200-day to 0.5% below.
• Agriculture cooled across the board: the broad fund RSI 56.0 to 41.4, corn 64.5 to 55.8, wheat 52.0 to 47.5; only soybeans held a green week.
• Seven names in this book did not appear in the September 11 edition's tables — Brent, Teck, junior gold miners, Adecoagro, Celanese, Alcoa and Energy Fuels. They are covered here, so no week-over-week comparison exists for them yet.

RSI, the trend word and the regime label are short-window classifiers — they describe the last few weeks, not the thesis. The trailing-year and vs-200-day columns are the long-horizon check, and they are the ones that decide whether a bad week is a flag or a break. A name above its 200-day with a large positive trailing year is in a deep pullback inside an intact trend no matter how ugly its week looks; a name below its 200-day has its long trend genuinely under test; a name flat-or-down on the year with performance behind the market is the actually broken one. Where a name carries no desk view, that is neither a positive nor a negative signal. Nothing here is a setup on its own — a low RSI inside a broken structure is not an entry.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — none this week.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $XHB (32.5), $ITB (33.5), $UUUU (33.6), $VGK (35.0), $AA (35.3), $EWG (36.1), $RSP (36.3), $FXE (37.1), $INDA (39.0). Seven of these nine are also below their 200-day lines, which is what separates an oversold reading from a buyable washout. The two exceptions are $VGK (+1.0% above) and $RSP (+3.6% above) — the only names in this tier whose long-term averages are still holding.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40 and above) — the remaining 27 names. The extended end is oil (63.6), the dollar (63.1) and Brent (63.0); none is overbought. Nothing in this book printed above RSI 65 this week, which is itself the change from a scan ago.

They are telling you the disruption is a routing problem, not a barrel problem, and that the policy response is now the bigger variable. Saudi Arabia lost a pipeline and answered with ship-to-ship transfers and more Hormuz traffic (Bloomberg and CNBC, September 16 and 17; MarketWatch, September 17) — and crude gave back the week while keeping the month. Meanwhile the Fed hiked into that oil shock rather than looking through it, and the ten-year went back above 5% (CNBC, September 16). Everything that keys off the discount rate got worse in exactly that window: builders, uranium, aluminum, European equities, the equal-weight index. Everything that keys off the barrel held its long trend and gave back its week.

The tell that this is a rates regime and not a fear regime is that gold rose and still could not take back its 200-day, while the dollar broke higher. In a fear regime those two move together against the tape. Here the dollar is the haven and gold is a lagging one, with the miners doing the work the metal is not.

• Oil and the ten-year are moving in their tightest correlation since 2019 (CNBC, September 15). That makes the energy block and the housing block two sides of one trade, not two independent reads — and it means a further crude spike is a bearish input for most of this file, not a bullish one.
• The dollar broke higher on the hike while the euro broke down and the yen's breakout failed. A firm dollar is a standing headwind on commodities, emerging markets and precious metals; it is the single most important line in this scan to watch next week.
• The miners are above their 200-days and the metals are below. Three mining funds versus two bullion funds, all five in the same direction of disagreement — a structural divergence that has now persisted for two scans and resolves one way or the other.
• Nothing in this file is overbought. The highest RSI is 63.6. A week ago two names printed above 70 (oil at 71.9, the yen fund at 70.4). The extension came out without the trends coming apart, which is the constructive read available here.
• The equal-weight index at RSI 36.3 against a calm headline tape says the damage is broad underneath, and consistent with the breakdowns concentrated in rate-sensitive groups rather than spread evenly.

• The 200-day lines on gold ($416.22) and silver ($65.80). Two scans of narrowing gaps with the miners already above their own; a reclaim by either metal would close the file's longest-standing divergence.
• Whether the dollar's break holds above its 20-day at $28.11. It is the swing factor for oil, metals, emerging markets and the international block simultaneously.
• Alcoa's 200-day at $58.08 and whether a news pull ever explains a −13.8% month in a name still up 35.79% on the year. Right now the size of the move is unconfirmed, not unexplained.
• Whether uranium's break extends or stalls now that both names are decisively below their 200-days and one of the two has no working news receipt at all.
• Whether the Saudi pipeline actually restarts. The reporting is that the kingdom is moving to restore it and rerouting in the meantime; a failed restart puts the crude premium back and, on the current correlation, puts the ten-year back up with it.
• Whether the builders stabilise or keep sliding now that the hiking cycle has resumed rather than ended — they are the cleanest single expression of that question in this book.

• macro-commodities (2026-09-18 close; every price, RSI, moving average and return above)
• 2026-09-11-macro-commodities (prior edition, comparison basis)
• 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844, 2026-09-16-yahoofinance-fed-hikes-main-interest-rate-by-quarter-point-citing-stubbor-e-135731525-html, 2026-09-16-cnbc-10-year-treasury-yield-climbs-back-to-5-after-fed-hikes-rate-108363494
• 2026-09-17-cnbc-bank-of-england-defies-fed-s-rate-hike-lead-leaving-rates-un-108363610
• 2026-09-14-cnbc-oil-prices-rise-after-saudi-arabia-shuts-down-critical-pipel-108362194, 2026-09-14-cnbc-satellite-images-show-extent-of-damage-to-saudi-arabia-s-oil-108362287, 2026-09-15-cnbc-u-s-oil-tops-105-as-saudi-arabia-reportedly-cancels-some-cru-108362801
• 2026-09-16-bloomberg-oil-holds-drop-as-saudi-arabia-moves-to-restore-vital-pipeli-tlfzdrkjh6v400, 2026-09-17-bloomberg-saudi-pivots-oil-routes-after-pipeline-attack-tlj01jr24u8q00, 2026-09-17-cnbc-oil-extends-losses-as-saudi-arabia-reportedly-offers-ship-to-108364169, 2026-09-17-marketwatch-saudi-arabia-is-now-pushing-to-export-more-oil-through-the-s--mktw-0005237246
• 2026-09-15-cnbc-oil-and-treasury-yields-haven-t-moved-this-closely-in-seven--108362816
• 2026-09-16-bloomberg-gold-rises-as-us-treasuries-pare-losses-following-fed-rate-h-tlh7m0kk3ny800, 2026-09-17-bloomberg-copper-steadies-as-traders-shrug-off-fed-s-hawkish-rate-sign-tlhhlct96osg00
• 2026-09-15-semafor-china-ramps-up-us-soybean-purchases-ahead-of-summit-ashington-summit, 2026-09-17-semafor-saudi-arabia-s-well-timed-uranium-find-near-medina-find-near-medina, 2026-09-17-cnbc-japan-s-corporate-leaders-sound-alarm-over-weak-yen-even-dol-108362829
• latest (pull completed 2026-09-11; newest item September 11), latest (pull FAILED, no items), latest (pull completed 2026-09-17; quote pages only)