Data as-of the 2026-09-23 settled close.

Oil gave back the whole week on a single Iranian headline, the dollar pushed into its first overbought reading in months, and the divergence this file has tracked for three scans — miners above their 200-day, metals below — nearly closed as the miners' own cushion evaporated. The one genuine surprise sits in industrials: Celanese flipped from a negative trailing year to +13.83%, the sharpest reversal anywhere in this book. Oil's fund closed $148.83, down 4.7% on the week, after CNBC reported Tuesday that Iran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases military pressure — the desk's own Monday brief clocked crude down 2.8% that single day and 11.0% on the week to that point. The dollar closed at RSI 72.3, its first overbought print in this file in months. Gold fell further behind its 200-day average, now 5.6% under it against 3.6% two scans ago, while the three mining funds' cushions above their own 200-days — 5.3%, 4.4% and 4.9% two weeks ago — are down to 2.9%, 1.5% and 1.3%.

The dated news this week is thin and concentrated in one story: on September 22, CNBC reported that Iran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases military pressure, and Bloomberg reported a US team met Iranian representatives in New York — a rare direct contact this deep into the war. Oil took it immediately and hard; the desk's own market brief that day clocked crude down 2.8% intraday and 11.0% on the week-to-date, and this file's own 7-day window (a five-session read ending today) shows the fund down 4.7% net of some stabilization since. That is the single dated cause behind this file's energy section, and it is the reason the refining trade — covered in the companion geopolitical scan — reversed hard in the same window.

Everything else in this file kept doing what the last two scans described: rate-sensitive names bleeding slowly, without a single fresh news item attached to most of it. The Federal Reserve's quarter-point hike on September 16 and the ten-year Treasury's brief run to a 5% handle — the first since July 2007 — are now a week old, but their after-effects are still working through this book. The ten-year eased to 4.96% by September 21 and the 2-year sits at a 52-week high of 4.76%, 88 basis points above the effective fed funds rate of 3.88%. The dollar fund kept climbing on that backdrop, closing at RSI 72.3 — its first overbought print in this file in months — while the euro fund sank further into oversold at RSI 27.3 and the yen fund lost its 200-day average outright this week, the breakout failure the September 18 edition first flagged now fully resolved to the downside.

Gold and silver did not catch a bid from any of it. Both funds fell further behind their 200-day averages this week — gold's gap widened from 3.6% to 5.6%, silver's from 8.9% to 11.8% — even as the miners, the stronger leg of that trade for three scans running, saw their own cushions cut by more than half: GDX from 5.3% to 2.9%, GDXJ from 4.4% to 1.5%, SIL from 4.9% to 1.3%. None of the five funds has a dated news item behind this week's move; all five pulls on file are stale or quote-pages-only. The divergence between metals and miners that this book has tracked since early September is not resolving toward the miners' side — it is converging because the miners are weakening toward the metals, not because the metals are catching up.

The one name that moved against every trend in this file is Celanese, which went from −0.15% on the trailing year two scans ago to +13.83% now, and from 11.0% below its 200-day to 5.2% below it — the largest single reversal anywhere in this book. Its last news pull predates this week and returned nothing on the move, so the size and cause of the turnaround are on the tape only.

Oil is still a deep pullback inside a trend that is up 98.31% on the year and 32.4% above its 200-day — the Hormuz-reopening report cost it a week, not the trend. Natural gas keeps improving off a beaten-down base and has now closed the year-over-year gap from −17.84% two scans ago to −12.06%.

The structural divergence flagged two scans ago — miners above their 200-day, metals below — is resolving the wrong way: the miners are losing altitude, not the metals gaining it. None of the five funds carries a confirmed cause for this week's fade.

Copper had a genuinely green week on both names, still comfortably inside intact uptrends. Alcoa remains the file's most violent drawdown inside a trend that is still positive on the year (+39.61%, actually better than two scans ago) but now 24.2% below its 200-day, with no dated news covering any of the last two weeks' declines. Celanese is the file's real story: a full trend reversal, unconfirmed by anything in the news record. Soybeans keep leading agriculture; Alcoa's neighbor in the "cushion collapsing fast" column is now the broad agriculture fund, down to 1.1% above its 200-day from 7.2% a week ago.

Uranium is the clearest case in this file where the short window and the long window disagree: the sector fund's week was roughly flat (+1.5%, its calmest reading in a month) while its trailing-year return deteriorated from −8.9% two scans ago to −16.62% now. Energy Fuels is 58.42% off its high with no dated news covering either week's decline — its last pull returned quote pages only.

The dollar's breakout from two scans ago has run all the way to overbought without a pullback yet. The euro's slide has deepened rather than stabilized. The yen's failed breakout, first flagged two scans ago, is now a confirmed loss of its long-term average.

Both builders' funds ticked up this week for the first time since the Fed hiked, without reclaiming their 200-day lines; both remain negative on the trailing year. Neither has a dated catalyst on file for the stabilization.

Europe's broad fund is barely holding its 200-day; Germany lost it decisively this week. India and China remain the two genuine long-horizon laggards. Brazil and the broad emerging-markets fund are the only two names in the international block still gaining ground on both the week and the year.

Growth and momentum extended their lead this week — momentum's +5.71% is the single best number in this block — while the equal-weight fund's RSI fell from 36.3 to 34.6, consistent with the desk's own reading this week that the average stock is down roughly 4% over 30 days while the index itself is roughly flat, carried by one sector.

Against the September 18 edition, in that scan's numbers versus today's:

• Oil gave back the week. 7D return flipped from −0.7% to −4.7%, on the September 22 Hormuz-reopening report; the trailing year cooled from +105.94% to +98.31% and the 200-day cushion from 38.2% to 32.4%.
• The dollar ran to overbought. RSI 63.1 to 72.3, its first print above 70 in this file in months. The euro deepened its oversold read, RSI 37.1 to 27.3. The yen lost its 200-day outright, +0.8% to −0.2%.
• Gold and silver fell further behind their 200-days. Gold's gap widened from 3.6% to 5.6%, silver's from 8.9% to 11.8% — the opposite of the narrowing both scans before this one showed.
• The miners' cushion nearly closed. GDX 5.3% to 2.9% above its 200-day, GDXJ 4.4% to 1.5%, SIL 4.9% to 1.3% — the divergence with the metals persists but only because the miners are weakening toward them.
• Celanese reversed its entire trend. Trailing year −0.15% to +13.83%, 200-day gap −11.0% to −5.2% — the largest single change in this book, with no dated news covering it.
• Uranium's week stabilized while its year got worse. URA's 7D flipped from −4.32% to +1.5%, but its trailing year fell from −8.9% to −16.62% on base effects. Energy Fuels' trailing year worsened from −17.02% to −30.41%.
• Housing ticked up without repairing anything. Both builders' funds posted their first positive week in this book's recent memory (+0.3% and +0.76%), still negative on the year and ~9% below their 200-days.
• Factor rotation widened. Momentum's week accelerated from +0.84% to +5.71%; the equal-weight fund's RSI fell from 36.3 to 34.6, the breadth read getting worse, not better.

RSI, the trend word and the regime label are short-window classifiers — they describe the last few weeks, not the thesis. The trailing-year and vs-200-day columns are the long-horizon check that decides whether a bad week is a flag or a break. A name above its 200-day with a large positive trailing year is in a deep pullback inside an intact trend no matter how ugly its week looks; a name below its 200-day has its long trend genuinely under test; a name flat-or-down on the year is the actually broken one. Uranium this week is the clean illustration of why both windows matter: a calm week and a worsening year are two different facts, and the year is the one that matters for the thesis.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — none.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $FXE (27.3), $RSP (34.6), $AA (34.7), $UUUU (35.5), $EWG (36.0), $VGK (37.2), $XHB (38.5), $VTV (39.6). Six of these eight are below their 200-day lines; $VGK (+0.6%) and $RSP (+3.0%) are the exceptions.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40 and above) — the remaining 27 names, running up to the dollar's 72.3. Nothing else in the file is above RSI 63.

Extended (RSI above 70) — $UUP (72.3) alone.

This is still a rates regime resolving through valuation, not a fear regime resolving through flight to safety — and this week added a second, separate story on top of it: a single de-escalation headline from Iran undid a week of oil's premium in one session. Those are two different mechanisms sitting side by side in the same file. The rates mechanism is patient and grinding: gold and the miners kept losing ground to their 200-days, the euro sank deeper into oversold, housing barely stabilized. The war mechanism is fast and binary: oil gave back 4.7% on one dated report, and the refining trade built on top of it unwound even harder, as the companion geopolitical scan covers in full.

The tell that gold still is not leading is now sharper than it was two scans ago — its gap to the 200-day widened rather than closed, in the same week the dollar ran to its first overbought print in months. A firm, overbought dollar and a fading gold trade in the same file, during an active war, says the market is pricing the Fed and the real-yield story ahead of the war story for havens specifically, even while the war story is what's moving the barrel.

A ten-year that touched a five-handle for the first time since July 2007 and still sits at 4.96% as of September 21, sitting next to high-yield spreads at 2.66% — within six basis points of their 52-week low — is not a recession signal. It is a real-yield story: the 10-year real (TIPS) yield is 2.62% against 1.75% a year ago, and credit is pricing no distress at all. That combination explains most of this file directly. Everything that keys off the discount rate rather than the barrel — gold, silver, the miners' shrinking cushion, housing, the euro — keeps eroding even as credit stays calm, because the erosion is a valuation-multiple problem, a higher real discount rate compressing anything long-duration, not a balance-sheet problem. The 2-year at a 52-week high of 4.76%, 88 basis points above the effective fed funds rate of 3.88%, is consistent with a market still pricing rate risk at the front end even after the hike is done.

• Oil's giveback this week has a name and a date — the September 22 Hormuz-reopening report — and it sits on top of the real-yield story rather than being caused by it. A further crude move from here is a war-story input, not a rates-story one.
• The dollar at its first overbought print in months is the single most important line in this file to watch next. It has been the standing headwind on commodities, emerging markets and precious metals for two scans; an overbought reading is the first point where that headwind could pause.
• The miners-above-metals divergence is resolving by convergence, not by the metals catching up. All three mining funds' cushions were cut by more than half in two weeks while gold and silver's gaps to their own 200-days widened.
• Credit tape stayed calm through all of this. High-yield spreads at 2.66% and VIX at 14.87 as of September 21 (14.21 the next session, per the desk's own brief) say none of this — not the rate move, not the oil headline — is being read as a stress event.
• The equal-weight fund's RSI kept falling (36.3 to 34.6) against a flat headline tape, consistent with the desk's own read this week that one sector is carrying the index while the average stock lags.

• Whether the Hormuz-reopening report converts into an actual reduction in military pressure, or turns out to be a trial balloon. Oil's whole week hinges on which way that resolves.
• The dollar's first overbought print. RSI 72.3 with no pullback yet; a reversal here is the swing factor for gold, emerging markets and the international block simultaneously.
• Gold's and silver's 200-day lines — $416.37 and $65.91 — now widening rather than narrowing, with the miners' own cushions down to low single digits. The divergence resolves toward the miners' side or it stops being a divergence at all.
• Whether Celanese's reversal gets a receipt. A trend flip from −0.15% to +13.83% on the year with no dated news anywhere in the record is the single largest unconfirmed move in this file.
• Alcoa's 200-day at $58.10, still 24.2% overhead in a name up 39.61% on the year, three weeks running with no news pull covering the decline.
• Whether the builders' first green week extends. Both remain negative on the year and roughly 9% below their 200-days; one week is not a trend change.

• macro-commodities (2026-09-23 close; every price, RSI, moving average and return above)
• 2026-09-18-macro-commodities (prior edition, comparison basis)
• 2026-09-22-market-brief (Iran-Hormuz reopening report, USO day/week move, VIX close, rates table)
• Rates and credit facts (2Y, 10Y, 10Y real yield, high-yield OAS, VIX) per the desk's FRED files, fetched 2026-09-22
• News receipts checked and stale or quote-pages-only for this week's moves: latest (2026-09-19), latest (2026-09-19), latest (2026-06-21), latest (2026-09-22, quote pages only)