Data as-of the 2026-10-02 settled close.

The five metals funds are now all under their 200-day averages, because the gold miners joined bullion and silver below that line since the September 25 edition. At the same time the dollar is back over RSI 70 and the euro has dropped into capitulation-tier RSI. That is the cleanest version yet of the two-track regime this file has tracked: rates and the dollar are setting the tone for havens, while oil trades its own war headlines. Brent's fund firmed while the US crude fund slipped on the day, consistent with the October 1 reports of a third US carrier group heading to the Middle East (CNBC, October 1). The September jobs report came in soft — payrolls up 29,000 against 84,000 expected, unemployment 4.2% (CNBC, October 2) — and Bloomberg (October 2) reported the dollar falling and Treasury yields climbing on the day; CNBC (October 2) reported oil lower as the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves. That is dated context; individual fund moves below are not attributed to it.

Oil is the one place where the war story is visible. On Thursday, October 1, CNBC reported Brent up more than 4% after a report that the US is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, and the desk's October 1 brief relayed a fifth tanker strike of the week inside the protected Hormuz lane. The same week, CNBC (September 30) had crude exports through Hormuz back at prewar levels while fuel shipments stayed constrained, and the Treasury announced further Iran sanctions on October 1. The tape fits that mixed picture: the Brent fund is the strongest trend in this book on a one-year basis, the US crude fund is down on the day, and natural gas moved up on the day despite sitting under its 200-day. Nothing on file explains today's crude-versus-Brent split.

Precious metals kept sliding. Bloomberg (October 1) had gold gaining on retreating yields, yet the settled tape shows gold, silver and all three miners below their 200-days, with the miners the new entrants to that group since the September 25 edition. Bloomberg (September 30) had the dollar posting its best month since June on the Fed's inflation reading, and the dollar fund is back over RSI 70 today. Rate-driven pressure on non-yielding assets, with the 10-year touching a 24-year high on October 1 before backing off (CNBC, Bloomberg, October 1), is the frame the desk's own coverage supports; today's specific driver is unknown.

The euro currency fund is the extreme: RSI in capitulation territory with a modest gap under its 200-day. Europe's equity fund and Germany lost their 200-days, while Brazil, Japan and the broad emerging-markets fund remain intact. China's September factory activity returned to expansion with a mini-stimulus announced (Bloomberg, CNBC, September 30), yet the China fund is still oversold and about 8% under its 200-day. Copper miner $TECK jumped on the day with no dated news (news not pulled for this move, last pull September 9; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked); Energy Fuels and uranium kept falling.

Factor rotation continues to favor growth and momentum: $VUG, $MTUM and $QUAL are above their 200-days with RSI in the high 50s to mid 60s, while equal-weight $RSP and value $VTV sit at RSI in the mid 30s, the breadth gap the October 1 brief also noted.

Oil's one-year trend is the strongest in the book; a flat week inside it is a pause, not a break. Natural gas is the opposite: down on the year and under its 200-day despite a green day.

The September 25 edition had the miners clinging to cushions of 0.4% to 2%; all three have now crossed under. Bullion's gap widened over the same stretch. All five remain positive on the one-year, so this is a long trend under test, with each fund's 200-day the line to watch.

Copper names remain intact uptrends. Alcoa is the file's deepest drawdown, with RSI near 30 and a gap of nearly 28% under its 200-day. Celanese's trailing year flipped to negative from +17.9% in the prior edition. Ag funds cooled; WEAT and CORN sit at RSI in the high 30s, still above their 200-days.

Both names are worse than on September 25 (URA's year from −16.8% to the figure above; UUUU from −34.24%). The desk's September 24 brief flagged the nuclear-fuel lane selling as a group with no dated cause; none has surfaced since.

The dollar's RSI was 68.1 on September 25 and is now over 70. The yen sits essentially on its 200-day, a coin-flip rather than a trend.

Both builders' funds are down double digits on the year and under their 200-days, with mortgage rates at multi-year highs per the desk's September 24 coverage. Last edition's 'green reads' did not hold.

Europe's cushion that was +1.3% (VGK) and −0.3% (EWG) on September 25 is now negative for both. India and China remain the genuine long-horizon laggards; Japan, Brazil and emerging markets are the intact trends.

Growth and momentum lead; value and equal weight lag. $VTV and $RSP are oversold on RSI but both still sit above their 200-days, so this is a pullback in intact trends, not a break.

Against the September 25 edition (one week; its figures are history, quoted for comparison only):

• Gold miners crossed under their 200-days. GDX had been 2.0% above, GDXJ 1.2% above, SIL 0.4% above; all three are now below. Every metals fund in this book is under its line.
• The dollar went back overbought. RSI 68.1 to above 70.
• The euro fell to capitulation-tier RSI. FXE was 30.3.
• Europe lost its 200-days. VGK and EWG both flipped from at-or-above to below.
• Celanese's trailing year turned negative. From +17.9%.
• Agriculture's broad fund went further under its line. AGRO from 3.0% below to deeper below.
• Uranium deteriorated again. URA and UUUU both lower on the year.
• Oil's one-year trend stayed intact. USO is still above its 200-day by a wide margin.

RSI and the trend label are short-window classifiers. The one-year and vs-200-day columns decide whether a weak week is a flag inside an intact trend or a genuine break. Names above their 200-day with large positive years (oil funds, copper, $TECK, $EWJ, $EEM) are deep pullbacks at worst. Names below their 200-day (metals, uranium, housing, India, China) have a long trend under test; the 200-day level is the line to watch.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — $FXE.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $AA, $UUUU, $INDA, $FXI, $VGK, $VTV, $CORN, $EWG, $RSP, $ITB, $URA, $AGRO, $WEAT, $GLD. Most are under their 200-days; $VTV, $RSP, $CORN and $WEAT are the exceptions.

Extended (RSI above 70) — $UUP only.

Mixed, leaning stagflationary at the edges. Energy is the inflationary leg: oil's year is the strongest in the book and refined-product names in the geopolitical scan are the same story. But the haven leg is not behaving like an inflation hedge: gold, silver and the miners are all under their 200-days with the dollar overbought and the 10-year at a 24-year high on October 1 (CNBC, Bloomberg). That pairing says the market is pricing real yields ahead of war risk for metals. Housing and the euro, both under pressure, are the deflationary, rate-sensitive side. Copper and $TECK holding intact trends argue demand is not collapsing.

• Dollar over RSI 70 with metals under their lines is the standing headwind; a dollar roll-over is what would let gold and emerging markets stabilize.
• Oil's Brent leg versus the US crude fund diverged on the day; the October 1 carrier report (CNBC) is a plausible context for Brent, not a confirmed cause for either move.
• Uranium's sector selloff still has no dated cause on file.
• Europe's break coincides with the euro's capitulation-tier RSI; the October 1 brief tied the day's Treasury bid partly to France's fiscal trouble (Bloomberg, CNBC headlines).
• Breadth gap between growth/momentum and equal weight/value persists.

• The September jobs report's read-through on the 10-year and the dollar; payrolls rose 29,000 against 84,000 expected (CNBC, October 2), and Bloomberg reported the dollar falling and yields climbing that day.
• Gold's and the miners' 200-day lines as the reclaim levels.
• Whether Brent's strength holds if Hormuz diplomacy (Qatar talks, US proposal to Tehran per CNBC, September 30) produces anything.
• UUP RSI over 70 — a reversal or an extension.
• VGK and EWG retaking their 200-days.
• September CPI on October 14 (scheduled).

• macro-commodities (2026-10-02 close; every table value via bindings)
• 2026-09-25-macro-commodities (prior edition, comparison basis)
• 2026-10-01-market-brief (10-year 24-year high, Brent and carrier report, tanker strike, jobs report schedule)
• 2026-10-01-cnbc-brent-oil-jumps-more-than-4-as-u-s-reportedly-sends-third-ai-108370821; 2026-10-01-bloomberg-gold-gains-as-yields-retreat-despite-lingering-inflation-ris-tm74w1kk3nyc00.md; 2026-10-01-cnbc-treasury-sanctions-operation-targets-iran-s-auto-rail-indust-108371119.md; 2026-09-30-cnbc-crude-oil-exports-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-hit-prewar-le-108369283.md; 2026-09-30-cnbc-trump-denies-offering-iran-sanctions-relief-tehran-receives--108370034.md; 2026-09-30-bloomberg-dollar-powers-to-best-month-since-june-on-fed-s-inflation-fi-tm39b5kk3nyc00.md; 2026-09-30-cnbc-china-factory-activity-snaps-2-month-contractionary-streak-i-108369964.md
• 2026-10-01-cnbc-10-year-treasury-yield-slides-after-hitting-highest-levels-i-108370863 (10-year 24-year high)
• Checked: October 2 captures — CNBC jobs report https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html; CNBC oil and G7 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/oil-wti-brent-diesel-stock-release-europe.html; Bloomberg dollar https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-02/dollar-falls-as-traders-pare-fed-hike-bets-after-soft-jobs-data; Bloomberg Treasuries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-10-02/treasury-yields-climb-add-to-weekly-gains-closing-bell-video; uranium and copper names have no October 1-2 capture; news receipts for single names in this book are stale or quote-pages-only.