Data as-of the 2026-10-16 settled close. World facts carry their own dates (October 12–16). Most news pulls for these names were taken Thursday evening, before Friday's session, so Friday's single-day moves are tape unless a dated item is cited.

Oil pushed to the top of its range while everything growth-linked broke. The US crude fund gained 9.15% over five sessions and the Brent fund closed 0.44% under its 52-week high at RSI 69.9; the momentum fund ($MTUM) lost 8.38% and growth ($VUG) 4.39%, copper ($COPX) and emerging markets ($EEM) slipped under their 200-day averages, and uranium ($UUUU) fell to RSI 23.8. The dollar cooled from the edge of RSI 70 to 57.7, yet gold and silver still lost ground.

Oil was the tape. The US crude fund rose 9.15% on the week (+2.83% Friday), the diversified crude fund 7.71% and the Brent fund 5.0% (+3.59% Friday). All three sit 32.2% to 40.6% above their 200-days on one-year gains of 109.94% to 141.86%; the Brent fund is the one closest to a high and at the edge of overbought. Bloomberg (October 16) reported Brent touching $110 for the first time since May as hopes of supply relief dwindled, and CNBC (October 16) tied Friday's jump to Iran's escalated Hormuz attacks that week. Natural gas moved the other way, down 3.88% Friday and 5.5% under its 200-day; no gas-specific cause is on file.

Equities sold into the oil spike. Bloomberg (October 16) called it the S&P 500's worst week since June, with crude renewing inflation fears and AI worries hitting chipmakers; the VIX closed at 19.99, up 21.5% on the day (October 16 conditions digest). Here the momentum fund sits 7.2% under its 20-day and the growth fund fell 2.06% Friday, while value rose 1.28% on the week and equal weight 0.49%: leadership broke, breadth held. The rate backdrop stayed hot. September CPI printed +0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year (CNBC, as carried in the October 14 market brief) and September PPI 6.3% on the year (CNBC, October 15). Fed Chair Warsh withheld a signal on another hike this month (CNBC, October 16), and Bank of England Governor Bailey said the energy shock has pushed rate cuts off the table (Bloomberg, October 16). The dollar's month-long rally stalled: Bloomberg (October 16) had its worst week in over a month, and $UUP closed at RSI 57.7 against 69.9 on October 9.

Metals did not benefit from the softer dollar. Gold fell 0.67% on the week and sits 7.9% under its 200-day; silver lost 5.97% and sits 21.2% under, 53.1% off its high. The miners' gaps to their lines widened to 3.7% ($GDX), 7.9% ($GDXJ) and 9.6% ($SIL), from 2%, 4.3% and 4.9% on October 9. Bloomberg tied the October 14 gold slump to Fed-hike wagers (as carried in the October 14 market brief, where $SLV fell 6.11%), and gold edged lower into Warsh's speech on October 15 (Bloomberg). Copper followed: $COPX lost 6.73% to 4.2% under its 200-day (2.9% above on October 9) and $TECK 5.04%, though $TECK is still 7.9% above its line on a +45.87% year. Bloomberg (October 14) had copper edging lower after BHP's Escondida mine averted a strike. Alcoa rose 2.55% Friday on 2.98 times normal volume and sits 27.9% under its 200-day; its report was scheduled for October 15 after the close and no verified print is on file, so the Friday move has no cause on file.

Uranium kept collapsing and emerging markets cracked. $UUUU lost 14.96% on the week to 49.8% under its 200-day on a −60.95% year; $URA lost 8.92% and was reclassified from downtrend to collapse. The nuclear-fuel lane was among the largest 30-day relative outflows on the October 16 rotation map; no company-specific cause is on file for either fund. $EEM fell 5.91% on 1.6 times volume and slipped 1.2% under its 200-day. The October 15 market brief carried a relayed report of Korea's Kospi and Kosdaq falling more than 6% that week; the fund's move fits that timing but no source ties it.

Against the October 9 edition (its readings are history, quoted for comparison only):

• Oil accelerated. $USO went from 26.5% to 35.6% above its 200-day; the Brent fund from 1.43% under its high to 0.44%, now at RSI 69.9.
• The dollar cooled. $UUP RSI fell from 69.9 to 57.7 and it sits 1.13% under its 52-week high (0.21% on October 9). The euro fund left capitulation-tier RSI (26.4 to 40.7); the yen fund is back on its 200-day (+0.1%) and was reclassified to an uptrend.
• Brazil gave back its breakout. $EWZ fell 3.93% after October 9's +14.01%, RSI 76.2 to 61.7, reclassified from breakout to uptrend; the runoff is scheduled October 25.
• Copper and emerging markets lost their lines. $COPX went from 2.9% above to 4.2% under its 200-day, $EEM from above to 1.2% under. $TECK moved from uptrend to pullback.
• Metals deteriorated. $GLD and $GDXJ now carry negative one-year changes (−3.64%, −1.6%) where all five metals funds were positive on October 9; $SIL was reclassified to a downtrend.
• Uranium fell further. $UUUU RSI went from 29.4 to 23.8, the only capitulation-tier reading on the board.
• Momentum broke. $MTUM lost 8.38% (a 0.89% slip last week), RSI 29.7; value and equal weight held.

Seventeen of 37 names close above their 200-day averages (18 on October 9): $COPX and $EEM out, $FXY in.

The tables are raw screen evidence from the October 16 settled close. RSI and the trend label are short-window classifiers; the one-year and vs-200-day columns decide whether a weak week is a flag inside an intact trend or a break. Names above their 200-day with large positive years (oil funds, $TECK, $SOYB, $EWZ, $EWJ, the factor funds) are pullbacks at worst. Names below it (metals, copper, uranium, housing, Europe, India, China, natural gas) have a long trend under test or broken, and the 200-day is the line to watch.

• The three oil funds are the whole commodity story: the US crude fund closed 0.97% under its high, the diversified fund 2.37%. Last week the crude fund sat just under its 20-day; it is now 8.4% over it.
• Natural gas gave back its bounce and sits 37.37% under its 52-week high: a downtrend, no repair.

• All five are under their 200-days. Friday was flat for bullion (−0.18% gold, −0.79% silver) with a small bid in the miners (+0.24% to +0.79%), so the week's damage came earlier, around the October 14 slump.
• The miners are still up 15.0% to 22.98% over three months, so the line they lost is a recent one; gold is 25.05% and silver 53.1% under their highs.

• Copper: $TECK is the deep pullback in an intact trend (7.9% above its 200-day, +45.87% year); $COPX is the one with a line to reclaim. Teck's report is scheduled October 29 (provider date).
• Alcoa traded 2.98 times normal volume Friday and is 50.88% off its high. Corn closed 0.1% above its 200-day, the thinnest cushion on the board.

• Both funds are down on the year with negative alpha, 43.11% and 69.64% under their highs: broken, not pulled back. The October 15 market brief recorded a partial bounce in the fuel names ($LEU, $CCJ) with the cause unknown; it did not hold.
• $UUUU reports November 2 (provider date). RSI under 25 marks damage, not an entry.

• Bloomberg (October 16): the euro halted a five-week slide after Warsh's remarks were read as supporting a rate hold this month. The euro fund gained 0.37% on the week and is still 3.0% under its 200-day.
• The dollar is 3.9% above its 200-day on a +4.33% year; the October 9 reading at the edge of RSI 70 has reset.

• Flat to slightly up on the week, 10.2% and 10.6% under their 200-days on negative years, on 2.33 and 2.41 times normal volume Friday. No rate relief is on file: the 10-year was above 5% in the week (CNBC, October 15).

• Europe and India bounced (Europe's two funds +1.46% and +1.49%, India +3.54%) while Brazil, Japan, China and the broad emerging-markets fund fell. India is still 3.7% under its 200-day on a −11.86% year.
• Brazil's fund is 13.2% above its 200-day on a +43.06% year and 4.72% off its high: the breakout cooled, the trend did not break. Bloomberg (October 15) had a Brazilian judge ordering Meta to treat runoff candidates equally ahead of October 25.

• All five factor funds are still above their 200-days, but momentum's cushion is 1.8% after an 8.38% week and 15.17% off its high. Value is 5.8% above its line on a +20.95% year.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — $UUUU only (23.8).

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $MTUM, $CORN, $URA, $EEM, $WEAT, $COPX, $SLV, $VUG, $AA, $EWJ, $SIL. Five of the eleven ($MTUM, $CORN, $WEAT, $VUG, $EWJ) are still above their 200-days: dips inside long trends, though corn's cushion is 0.1%. The other six are under their lines, so the low RSI marks damage.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+) — the oil funds, natural gas, gold, the miners, $TECK, $CE, $DBA, $SOYB, $AGRO, the currency funds, housing, the remaining international funds, and the other four factor funds. No fund is at RSI 70; $BNO is 69.9.

Conditions, not orders: each zone names a level and the confirmation it needs.

The stagflation read strengthened. Oil is the inflationary leg and it accelerated: the Brent fund is within 0.44% of its high and Bloomberg (October 16) had Brent at $110. The inflation prints are already hot (CPI +0.6% on the month, PPI 6.3% on the year), the Fed chair declined to rule out or signal another hike (CNBC, October 16), and the Bank of England governor said the energy shock delays its 2% target (Bloomberg, October 16). Growth-linked assets are the casualty: momentum, growth, copper and emerging markets all lost ground, and the VIX jumped 21.5% on Friday to 19.99. Gold and silver are not working as inflation or war hedges; they fell with the hike odds and did not recover when the dollar cooled, which fits rates more than risk. The shifts that matter for next week: the dollar's reset and the euro's bounce, leadership moving from momentum to value, and uranium and housing still broken.

• Oil up, equities down. The first week in this run where the S&P 500's decline (Bloomberg: worst since June) came with crude at the top of its range. If oil holds near $110, the rate path keeps pressuring growth.
• Dollar down, gold not up. A softer dollar usually helps bullion; here gold and silver still fell, pointing at real rates, not the currency.
• Copper and emerging markets together under their 200-days. Industrial demand and emerging-market risk appetite weakened in the same week; Brazil is the exception.
• Value and equal weight hold while momentum breaks. The leadership change is inside equities, not a flight to cash.
• Uranium capitulation. The only RSI under 25 on the board sits in a lane with no company-level cause on file.

• Oil near the high. Whether the Brent fund (RSI 69.9) breaks its 52-week high or resets toward its 20-day; Iran-related headlines (Hormuz, strike options reported by CNBC on October 16) set the direction.
• The October 28 Fed meeting. Hike odds were 39% on October 14 (CNBC); Warsh gave no signal on October 16.
• Metals and copper 200-days. $GDX needs to reclaim its line (3.7% above where it closed); $COPX likewise.
• Brazil's October 25 runoff and whether $EWZ holds its 20-day.
• Teck, scheduled October 29 (provider date); Alcoa's October 15 print is unconfirmed on file.
• Missing receipts. News pulls dated after Friday's session for metals, copper, uranium, Alcoa and emerging markets, needed to explain their Friday moves.

• macro-commodities (2026-10-16 settled close, fetched 2026-10-16 21:00 UTC; every table value via bindings)
• 2026-10-09-macro-commodities (prior edition, comparison basis)
• 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16.json (classification changes)
• 2026-10-16-market-conditions (VIX, S&P 500 week, rotation map); 2026-10-14-market-brief (CPI, gold and silver slump, Fed meeting odds); 2026-10-15-market-brief (PPI, uranium bounce, Korean index report)
• Captures: Bloomberg, Brent taps $110; CNBC, Brent touches $110 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks; Bloomberg, S&P 500 worst week since June; Bloomberg, dollar worst week in over a month; Bloomberg, euro ends five-week losing run; CNBC, Warsh withholds rate signal; Bloomberg, BOE chief on the energy shock; Bloomberg, gold edges lower ahead of Warsh speech; Bloomberg, copper edges lower after Escondida averts strike; CNBC, Treasury yields above 5%; Bloomberg, Brazil judge orders Meta to treat runoff candidates equally
• Event calendar: 2026-10-15-aa-earnings (overdue, no verified print); 2026-10-29-teck-earnings.md and 2026-11-02-uuuu-earnings.md (provider dates, scheduled).
• News receipts checked: pulled October 15–16 UTC (Thursday evening PT) for AA, UUUU, GLD, UNG, CE, FXY, USO, BNO, with nothing dated to Friday's moves; older pulls for URA (September 25), TECK (September 9), GDX (September 24), SLV (August 25), COPX (July 7), EEM (June 21), EWZ (October 9), MTUM (October 5), VUG (October 1), UUP (October 1). DBO has no news file. research/stock-events/ has no entry dated October 12–16 for any name on this board other than Alcoa's overdue print.