raw scansnapshot — prices as of scan date, not live29 rows · screens, not recommendations
Data as-of the 2026-08-28 settled close. Numbers read directly from macro-commodities — no prose math.
The hard-asset complex stays broadly inflationary on a trailing-year view even as its most extended corners cool off — energy and copper are still up 70-90%+ over the trailing year, but gold just slipped below its own 200-day (it was above it on the prior scan) while the grain complex just got hot.USO is +72.38% over the trailing year and 22.6% above its 200-day even after a -3.73% week; copper (COPX) leads the file at +92.93% 1Y. Gold (GLD) cooled from an overbought RSI near 71 two scans ago to 54.6 today, and now sits 1.4% below its 200-day — a genuine short-term crack in an otherwise still-positive 1-year trend (+29.79%). The grain/ag sleeve (WEAT, CORN, SOYB, DBA) swung the other way, pushing into RSI 73-79 with every name within a percent of its 52-week high. The dollar (UUP) remains essentially flat over the year (+2.88%) and housing (XHB, ITB) stays negative and getting worse, so this still isn't a clean currency-debasement or housing-recovery story.
USO is up +72.38% over the trailing year and comfortably above its 200-day (+22.6%) despite a -3.73% week — a hot trend cooling, not damage.
UNG remains the sector's real casualty: negative on the trailing year (-17.82%) and 12.7% below its 200-day, tagged collapse, even after a modest +3.50% bounce this week.
No dated catalyst on file explains this week's divergence between the two — cause unknown.
GLD is the standout change in this book: it's now 1.4% below its own 200-day after a -3.45% week, even though the trailing year is still positive (+29.79%) — the level to watch is $414.79 (its 200-day).
SLV remains the deepest gap to its own average in the metals complex: +68.98% over the trailing year yet 7.7% below its 200-day — a blistering multi-year trend that's cooled hard near-term.
GDX and SIL both cooled from prior extension (RSI now 62.9 and 63.6) while staying comfortably above their 200-days (+11.6%, +11.5%) — an intact trend running less hot, not a reversal.
Copper (COPX) remains the strongest structural trend in the entire file: +92.93% over the trailing year, +18.0% above its 200-day, just -5.57% off its 52-week high.
The grain complex is now the hottest near-term momentum in this scan: WEAT (RSI 78.9), SOYB (75.3), CORN (74.7), and DBA (72.8) are all extended, all tagged breakout, and all within a percent of their 52-week highs (-0.03% to -0.70%).
WEAT's 7-day move (+10.27%) is the largest in the section — worth flagging that no dated catalyst is on file for the grain complex's acceleration this week; cause unknown.
URA sits 6.0% below its own 200-day ($48.49) even after a +21.46% 30-day pop — a trend still testing its average from underneath, not confirmed back in force; still -26.83% off its 52-week high.
The dollar (UUP) is essentially flat over the trailing year (+2.88%) and just above its own 200-day (+1.6%) — rangebound, not collapsing.
The euro (FXE) flipped negative on the 1-year window (-0.76%) after cooling from an RSI near 72 two scans back — a flat multi-year range, not a breakout.
The yen (FXY) remains the softest currency here: -8.62% over the trailing year, just below its 200-day (-1.3%).
Both housing ETFs deepened their trailing-year losses versus the prior scan (XHB -8.57%, ITB -12.91%) and sit just under their own 200-days (-2.3%, -2.2%) — soft and rangebound, not a violent breakdown, but the trend keeps getting worse, not better.
Neither carries a resolved thesis view (thesis: no-view on both).
VGK sits just -1.40% off its 52-week high with a solid trailing year (+16.65%, +6.1% above its 200-day).
INDA and FXI remain the two genuine long-horizon laggards: both negative on the trailing year (-5.67%, -7.91%) and below their own 200-days (-2.0%, -3.6%). INDA's thesisState still reads intact even as the price data argues otherwise — that disagreement is unresolved, not silently waved through.
EEM posted the largest trailing-year gain in the section (+35.94%, +9.3% above its 200-day).
MTUM is the case to read carefully: its short-window classifier reads weak-down in a pullback regime (RSI 42.2, 7D -1.86%), but it's +21.68% over the trailing year and +8.0% above its own 200-day — a pullback inside an intact trend, not a breakdown.
VTV leads the group on the trailing year (+23.01%, alpha1y +3.14 — outperforming its benchmark) while VUG (alpha1y -5.38) and QUAL (alpha1y -1.98) lag on a relative basis despite being positive in absolute terms.
Momentum's relative edge is fading: MTUM's alpha1y sits at +1.80, its thinnest reading in recent scans, even though the absolute trailing-year number (+21.68%) is still strong.
What the Commodities Are Telling Us
Energy (USO +72.38% 1Y), copper (COPX +92.93% 1Y), and precious metals (SLV +68.98%, SIL +75.94%, GDX +62.48%, GLD +29.79%, all 1Y) still point to a broadly inflationary hard-asset complex on a trailing-year view. That's not being driven by a collapsing dollar — UUP is essentially flat over the year (+2.88%) — which keeps this looking more like real, demand/supply-driven reflation than a pure currency-debasement trade. Housing remains the piece that doesn't fit: both XHB (-8.57% 1Y) and ITB (-12.91% 1Y) are negative on the trailing year and got worse, not better, since the last scan — the most rate-sensitive corner of this file still soft even as hard assets run. The grain complex (DBA, WEAT, CORN, SOYB) just swung from muted to genuinely hot on momentum (RSI 73-79, all near 52-week highs) without a matching move in the trailing-year numbers yet — worth watching whether that converts into a durable 1-year gain or fades. Read together: broadly inflationary in the hard-asset complex, with gold's slip below its 200-day this scan the clearest crack yet in that complex's most-extended member.
Cross-Asset Signals
Gold (GLD) crossing below its own 200-day (-1.4%) after cooling from an RSI near 71 two scans ago is the most notable technical shift in this file — the metals complex's calmest member just went from leading to lagging on a short-horizon basis.
The oil-and-copper leg of the reflation trade (USO +72.38% 1Y, COPX +92.93% 1Y) remains intact and well above trend even after this week's pullbacks — no confirmed break in either.
Housing (XHB, ITB) is the one sector in this file moving further against the broader reflation grain, with both trailing-year losses widening versus the prior scan.
The grain complex's sudden RSI extension (WEAT 78.9, SOYB 75.3, CORN 74.7, DBA 72.8) against still-modest trailing-year gains (+6.07% to +32.08%) is worth tracking next scan — a momentum burst with no matching long-horizon confirmation yet.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
Versus the 2026-08-22 scan: gold is the headline mover — GLD's RSI fell from an overbought 71.2 to a neutral 54.6, and it slipped from 2.4% above its 200-day to 1.4% below it, while GDX cooled from a parabolic RSI of 75.3 to 62.9 and SIL from 72.1 to 63.6. The grain/ag complex moved the opposite direction, going from mid-60s RSI and basing tags to RSI 73-79 and breakout tags across DBA, WEAT, CORN, and SOYB. The euro (FXE) flipped from a positive to a negative trailing-year read (+0.69% → -0.76%) as its RSI cooled from 72.0 to 52.8. Housing's trailing-year losses widened on both names (XHB -4.34%→-8.57%, ITB -9.13%→-12.91%). Momentum's relative edge (MTUM alpha1y) shrank from +4.53 to +1.80. Copper, energy, and the international sleeve were comparatively stable week over week.