Data as-of the 2026-08-21 settled close (Friday's close). Numbers read directly from macro-commodities — no prose math.

The hard-asset complex is broadly inflationary on a trailing-year view — energy, copper, and precious metals are all up double-to-triple digits over 1Y — while the dollar stays flat and housing stays soft, so this isn't a clean currency-debasement or housing-recovery story. USO is +81.63% over the trailing year and 29.1% above its 200-day; copper (COPX) leads the whole file at +102.85% 1Y; silver (SLV) is +81.22% 1Y even while sitting just below its own 200-day. Against that, the dollar (UUP) is essentially flat over the year (+1.09%) and housing (XHB, ITB) is negative on both trailing-year windows. The factor sleeve shows value and momentum (VTV, MTUM) outperforming growth (VUG) on a relative-alpha basis, consistent with — but not proof of — an inflationary equity read.

• USO is up +81.63% over the trailing year and sits 29.1% above its 200-day — the pullback regime tag reflects distance from the 52-week high (-12.62%), not trend damage; this is a hot trend cooling, not a top forming.
• UNG is the real casualty of the pair: negative on both the trailing year (-19.44%) and vs its 200-day (-16.2%), tagged collapse — natural gas is diverging hard from the rest of the energy complex.
• No dated catalyst on file explains the specific week-over-week divergence between the two — cause unknown.

• SLV is the standout long-horizon read here: +81.22% over the trailing year yet sitting 2.8% below its own 200-day — a blistering multi-year trend cooling into an average that's raced to catch up with price, not a breakdown. $64.55 (its 200-day) is the level to watch.
• GDX (RSI 75.3, tagged parabolic) and SIL (RSI 72.1) are both extended near-term after 30-day gains above +28%, while still sitting comfortably above their own 200-days (+16.1%, +13.2%) — an intact trend running hot, not a reversal signal.
• All four remain well off their 52-week highs (-12.25% to -42.89%) even after this run.

• Copper (COPX) is the strongest structural trend in the entire file: +102.85% over the trailing year, +19.5% above its 200-day, still -5.4% off its 52-week high.
• The grain/ag complex is uniformly positive on the year (+3.81% to +20.14%) and comfortably above its own 200-day everywhere (+5.7% to +13.3%) — a quieter version of the same reflation trend visible in metals and energy.
• CORN and SOYB are both within a percent of their 52-week highs (-0.63%, -0.49%) — the two closest-to-highs names in this scan.

• URA sits 5.1% below its own 200-day even after a +12.45% 30-day pop and a positive trailing year (+23.91%) — a trend testing its average from underneath, not one confirmed back in force. $48.53 (its 200-day) is the level that settles it either way; still -26.03% off its 52-week high.

• The dollar (UUP) is essentially flat over the trailing year (+1.09%) and barely above its own 200-day (+0.6%) — rangebound, not collapsing, despite the RSI 35.1 near-term softness.
• The euro (FXE, RSI 72.0) is also flat on a 1-year view (+0.69%) — the elevated RSI reflects a recent bounce inside a flat multi-year range, not a breakout.
• The yen (FXY) is the one genuinely soft currency here: -6.95% over the trailing year, sitting just below its 200-day (-0.7%).

• Both housing ETFs are modestly negative on the trailing year (-4.34%, -9.13%) and sitting just under their own 200-days (-0.5%, -1.2%) — soft and rangebound around the average, not a violent breakdown, despite the strong-down trend tag on ITB.
• Neither carries a resolved thesis view (thesis: no-view on both) — housing isn't giving a clean signal either way this scan.

• VGK sits just -0.14% off its 52-week high with a solid trailing year (+17.49%, +7.4% above its 200-day) — the strongest technical read in the international sleeve.
• INDA and FXI are the two genuine long-horizon laggards here: both negative over the trailing year (-7.34%, -6.54%) and below their own 200-days (-2.0%, -2.9%). Worth flagging plainly: INDA's own thesisState tag reads intact even as the price data argues otherwise — that disagreement is unresolved, not silently waved through.
• EEM posted the largest trailing-year gain in the section (+37.15%, +9.8% above its 200-day) despite a quiet week (+0.75%).

• MTUM is the case to read carefully: its short-window classifier reads weak-down in a pullback regime (7D -3.87%, 30D -2.89%), but it's +26.35% over the trailing year and +10.4% above its own 200-day — a deep pullback inside an intact trend, not a breakdown.
• VTV leads the group on the trailing year (+25.12%, alpha1y +3.3 — outperforming its benchmark) while VUG (alpha1y -5.46) and QUAL (alpha1y -2.16) lag on a relative basis despite being positive in absolute terms — value/momentum leadership over growth continues.
• RSP and VTV both sit within 1% of their 52-week highs (-0.79%, -0.95%), the tightest gaps in the section.

Energy (USO +81.63% 1Y), copper (COPX +102.85% 1Y), and precious metals (SLV +81.22%, SIL +84.63%, GDX +73.44%, GLD +37.77%, all 1Y) point to a broadly inflationary hard-asset complex on a trailing-year view. That's not being driven by a collapsing dollar — UUP is essentially flat over the year (+1.09%) — which argues this looks more like real, demand/supply-driven reflation than a pure currency-debasement trade. The piece that doesn't fit a clean reflation narrative is housing: both XHB (-4.34% 1Y) and ITB (-9.13% 1Y) are negative on the trailing year and sitting just under their 200-days, the most rate-sensitive corner of this file still soft even as hard assets run. Agriculture (DBA, WEAT, CORN, SOYB) is positive but far more muted than metals or energy — no shared, sharp signal there. Read together: broadly inflationary in the hard-asset complex, without the currency-debasement or housing-recovery legs that would confirm a clean reflationary regime — an open tension, not a single resolved label.

• The commodity complex (energy, copper, precious metals) is up sharply on a 1-year view while the dollar (UUP +1.09% 1Y) is flat — a weaker-dollar-drives-commodities read doesn't fully explain this move on its own.
• Value and momentum equities (VTV alpha1y +3.3, MTUM alpha1y +4.53) are outperforming growth (VUG alpha1y -5.46) on a relative basis at the same time the hard-asset complex is running — a rotation pattern consistent with, but not proof of, an inflationary equity-market read.
• Housing (XHB, ITB) is the one sector in this file moving against the broader reflation grain — both negative on the trailing year while energy, metals, and the grain complex are positive.
• SLV trading below its own 200-day (-2.8%) despite an +81.22% trailing-year gain is worth tracking against GDX and SIL, which remain comfortably above their 200-days (+16.1%, +13.2%) — a possible tell on whether the metals complex broadens or silver cools first.