raw scansnapshot — prices as of scan date, not live40 rows · screens, not recommendationsprior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-25-macro-commodities.md
Data as-of the 2026-07-28 settled close (Tuesday's close). Numbers read directly from macro-commodities — no prose math. Prior scan: 2026-07-25-macro-commodities (2026-07-25).
The inflation-flavored move from the prior scan cooled off across the board — oil, grains, and the equity momentum factor all pulled back from their extended readings in the same few days.USO's RSI fell from 67.2 to 48 and its 30-day gain narrowed from +28.6% to +12.52% — the sharpest deceleration in the book. The grain complex cooled right alongside it: soybeans, the most overbought name in the prior scan at RSI 72.9, eased to 59.4, and wheat, corn, and DBA all followed the same path. Precious metals gave back the shallow bounce flagged last time — GLD, SLV, GDX, and SIL all sit roughly flat-to-negative on 30 days again, still death-crossed. The dollar held its re-firming. The clearest reversal outside commodities is India (INDA), which flipped from last scan's "new laggard" to one of the strongest movers in the international book.
USO's rally decelerated sharply: RSI fell from the prior scan's 67.2 to 48.0, and the 30-day gain nearly halved, from +28.6% to +12.52% — still up on the month, but the sharpest cooldown anywhere in this file.
UNG deepened further into its own drawdown (30D -14.26%, now -42.45% from its 52-week high) and remains fully decoupled from crude — the energy complex has no shared signal this scan.
All four names gave back the shallow bounce flagged in the prior scan: GLD's 30-day change slipped from +1.6% to +0.21%, SLV from +1.6% to -1.86%, GDX from +0.9% to -1.94%, and SIL from flat to -4.42%.
Every name here remains death-crossed and tagged strong-down; SLV, GDX, and SIL sit in the deeper collapse regime, and SLV is still the group's steepest drawdown at -52.93% from its 52-week high.
The grain complex cooled hard across the board: soybeans (SOYB) — the most overbought name in the prior scan at RSI 72.9 — eased to 59.4, DBA fell from 66.9 to 55.4, CORN from 66.1 to 58.9, and WEAT continued its multi-scan cooldown from 63.4 to 55.9. All four now sit in a tighter, less-extended 55-59 band.
Copper (COPX) remains the laggard of the group at RSI 47.4, still tagged weak-down and essentially flat on 30 days.
URA's RSI barely moved (38.7 → 36.7) and its 30-day drawdown deepened slightly, from -10.8% to -11.34% — still tagged collapse, with no floor confirmed in the data.
Both housing ETFs picked up real ground this week: XHB's 7-day change jumped to +3.49% from +0.2% last scan, and ITB's RSI rose from 49.0 to 56.1 with its 30-day drawdown narrowing from -6.0% to -3.5%.
Neither name is oversold and both remain well off their 52-week highs, but the digestion phase flagged in the prior scan looks to be turning.
India (INDA) reversed hardest of the group — RSI jumped from 42.4 to 55.1 and its 30-day print flipped from -3.2% to +0.41%, undoing the prior scan's "new laggard" read. Germany (EWG) also jumped, RSI 47.6 → 55.2.
China (FXI) extended its climb for a fourth straight scan, RSI now 66.9, still the strongest name in the international book, while Japan (EWJ) rolled back down (RSI 45.6 → 41.6) and broad emerging markets (EEM) weakened again (RSI 41.0 → 38.6).
Value (VTV) extended further into leadership, RSI 63.5 → 68.4 and just -0.26% from its 52-week high; equal-weight (RSP) also jumped sharply, RSI 55.5 → 66.2.
Momentum (MTUM) deteriorated further rather than stabilizing — RSI fell to 37.6 from 44.2 and its 30-day drawdown widened to -13.0% from -6.7%, reversing the prior scan's "stabilizing" read. Growth (VUG) stayed the group's other laggard at RSI 39.8.
What the Commodities Are Telling Us
The clearest theme this scan is a broad cooldown, not a re-acceleration. Oil (USO) and the grain complex (SOYB, DBA, CORN, WEAT) moved the same direction for the first time in several scans — both decelerated together, each giving back a large chunk of the overbought reading flagged last time, while 30-day returns mostly stayed positive underneath. That argues for a pause inside an existing trend rather than a reversal. Precious metals didn't confirm anything either way: GLD, SLV, GDX, and SIL gave back the shallow bounce from the prior scan and sit flat-to-negative on 30 days again, all still death-crossed — so this isn't metals catching an inflation-hedge or crisis bid. The dollar (UUP) held its firming posture essentially unchanged. Housing picked up real weekly momentum after weeks of digestion, and equity factor rotation extended further away from growth and momentum toward value, quality, and equal-weight. Read together: a cooling commodity complex, a steady dollar, and continued rotation out of momentum/growth into value — closer to a disinflationary pause than either a stagflationary or a classically inflationary read.
Cross-Asset Signals
USO and UNG still don't confirm each other: oil's deceleration (RSI 67.2 → 48) happened in the same window that gas kept sliding (RSI 31.2, -42.45% from its 52-week high) — no shared energy signal this scan.
Grains and oil cooled together for the first time in a few scans — SOYB, DBA, CORN, and WEAT each eased 8-13 RSI points, and USO eased nearly 20 — a shared cooldown, not a divergence.
The dollar's firmness (UUP RSI 63.3, still strong-up) is the most stable reading in the whole file relative to the prior scan; it neither confirmed nor invalidated the metals' weakness, since GLD/SLV/GDX/SIL all sat roughly flat too.
Factor rotation continues to point away from growth and momentum (VUG, MTUM both weakening further) and toward value, quality, and equal-weight (VTV, RSP both extending toward overbought) — the single clearest directional signal in this file.