Macro Commodities
Macro Commodities
Data as-of 2026-07-06 close. Numbers read directly from macro-commodities — no prose math. Prior scan: 2026-06-26-macro-commodities (2026-06-26).
The dollar rollover is the connective story across the whole macro book. UUP cooled from RSI 72.9 (near-ATH) on 2026-06-26 to RSI 58.9 today, and nearly everything that was being crushed by dollar strength has caught a bid since: gold (RSI 35.8→45.4), silver (RSI 31.7→41.7), China (FXI RSI 23.4→38.8), and international equities (VGK/EWJ/EWG all now strong-up). Growth (VUG RSI 39.1→54.9) closed most of its gap with value (VTV RSI 65.6) — the growth-vs-value split that defined the prior scan is fading, not widening. The two sore spots that haven't turned: crude/ag laggards (AA -32.1% 30D, AGRO -16.8% 30D) and housing (XHB/ITB), which cooled from near-overbought after its June run.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Dollar-rollover unlock — commodities/EM/international broadly recovering, ag/materials still lagging |
| Key insight | UUP RSI 72.9→58.9 in 10 sessions is the pivot; gold, silver, FXI, and international equities all inflected the same week |
| Standout reversal | FXI RSI 23.4 (extreme oversold) → 38.8; China stress easing |
| Still broken | AA (-32.1% 30D, collapse regime), AGRO (-16.8% 30D), UUUU (-50.7% from 52wk high) |
Currencies (the pivot)
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUP | $28.32 | 58.9 | -0.3% | +1.0% | +0.3% | strong-up | -0.8% |
| FXE | $105.57 | 44.0 | +0.1% | -0.7% | -0.2% | strong-down | -5.4% |
| FXY | $56.59 | 37.5 | +0.5% | -1.2% | -0.6% | strong-down | -10.5% |
UUP is down from RSI 72.9 to 58.9 — still golden-cross/strong-up, not broken, but no longer extended. That single move is the macro unlock: FXE and FXY are both recovering off their RSI <30 lows from the prior scan even though neither has flipped bullish yet.
Precious Metals (safe-haven flip)
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $382.13 | 45.4 | +2.4% | -3.8% | 0.0% | strong-down | -25.0% |
| SLV | $56.11 | 41.7 | +4.7% | -8.9% | -2.6% | down | -48.9% |
| GDX | $78.74 | 46.2 | +3.4% | +0.1% | -0.1% | strong-down | -32.8% |
| GDXJ | $103.91 | 48.1 | +3.8% | +2.3% | +1.5% | strong-down | -34.0% |
| SIL | $79.70 | 45.3 | +3.5% | +0.3% | -0.4% | down | -33.2% |
| GDRZF | $4.56 | 46.2 | +3.8% | -5.6% | -2.4% | weak-down | -18.6% |
Gold and silver were the prior scan's headline safe-haven failures (both trending down, below SMA200, "dollar crowding out the haven bid"). Both are now up on the week with RSI climbing 10 points, tracking the dollar's cooldown directly. Still below SMA200/death-cross on the miners — this is early-stage repair, not a confirmed reversal. GDRZF (thin, ~$100K/day dollar volume) is new to this list; treat as illiquid, not a clean entry.
Industrial Metals & Materials
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COPX | $78.48 | 45.6 | +2.1% | -3.1% | -2.6% | weak-down | -21.5% |
| TECK | $61.45 | 49.9 | +3.9% | -0.9% | -0.3% | weak-down | -13.8% |
| AA | $49.87 | 31.4 | -9.8% | -32.1% | -16.4% | down | -40.9% |
| CE | $47.64 | 39.7 | +0.5% | -2.9% | -3.9% | down | -32.6% |
Copper (COPX) and TECK are tracking the same repair as gold/silver — small RSI gains, 30D still negative. AA (Alcoa) is the one name getting worse, not better: -9.8% just this week on top of a -32.1% 30D collapse, still in collapse regime. This is the aluminum/energy-cost story, unrelated to the dollar unwind.
Agriculture
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBA | $27.54 | 62.1 | +0.6% | +4.6% | +3.5% | strong-up | -4.5% |
| WEAT | $22.93 | 52.5 | +1.8% | +2.6% | +2.0% | weak-down | -10.4% |
| CORN | $17.45 | 54.9 | +1.8% | +2.5% | +3.2% | down | -8.8% |
| SOYB | $25.24 | 64.4 | +0.7% | +4.6% | +3.7% | strong-up | -0.9% |
| AGRO | $9.48 | 33.2 | -0.2% | -16.8% | -6.4% | down | -40.3% |
The whole ag complex except AGRO has flipped from the prior scan's broad weakness (WEAT/CORN/SOYB were all RSI 38-51 and negative 30D) to positive 30D across the board. DBA and SOYB are both in strong-up now. AGRO is the outlier still bleeding — different underlying (Brazilian ag, FX-linked) than the US grain ETFs.
Energy
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | $104.35 | 30.5 | -2.8% | -22.8% | -10.2% | weak-down | -32.3% |
| BNO | $39.94 | 29.4 | -2.7% | -23.0% | -10.1% | weak-down | -34.3% |
| UNG | $11.71 | 52.9 | +0.9% | +3.0% | +1.1% | weak-up | -31.2% |
Crude is the one macro asset the dollar unwind hasn't touched — USO/BNO are still RSI 29-31 and their 30D drawdown has actually deepened since the prior scan (was -19.5%/-21.2%, now -22.8%/-23.0%). See 2026-07-07-geopolitical-risk.md for the full energy complex read.
Uranium
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URA | $43.88 | 40.8 | -0.3% | -4.4% | -2.6% | down | -29.5% |
| UUUU | $13.77 | 36.1 | -2.5% | -9.5% | -7.5% | strong-down | -50.7% |
Both still weak; UUUU is now half off its 52-week high. No sign of the nuclear-demand thesis showing up in price yet.
Housing (cooling off)
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHB | $111.29 | 55.6 | -1.5% | +7.9% | +1.3% | up | -9.6% |
| ITB | $101.31 | 57.3 | -0.6% | +9.6% | +2.3% | up | -14.1% |
The prior scan's standout (RSI 67-69, near-overbought after a +12% 30D run) has cooled to RSI 55-57. 30D gains are smaller than before (was +12.1%/+12.3%) — this reads as digestion after the June breakout, not a reversal.
International
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | $89.97 | 61.6 | +2.1% | +4.2% | +2.5% | strong-up | -0.9% |
| EWG | $42.66 | 61.0 | +3.8% | +3.3% | +3.2% | strong-up | -4.5% |
| EWZ | $34.92 | 51.3 | -0.5% | +4.6% | +2.1% | weak-down | -16.9% |
| INDA | $49.88 | 59.7 | +1.0% | +5.7% | +2.0% | weak-up | -10.5% |
| EWJ | $95.27 | 60.2 | +0.9% | +4.2% | +2.4% | strong-up | -2.3% |
| FXI | $32.49 | 38.8 | +0.4% | -5.6% | -2.4% | strong-down | -22.6% |
| EEM | $67.57 | 51.3 | -1.3% | +3.3% | +0.2% | strong-up | -5.6% |
FXI's recovery (RSI 23.4→38.8) is the biggest single-name reversal in this scan. Europe (VGK/EWG) and Japan (EWJ) both flipped to strong-up, near 52-week highs (-0.9%/-2.3%). International breadth is now confirming the dollar-rollover read, not just the currency pair.
US Factor Rotation
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VUG | $86.68 | 54.9 | +1.7% | +0.7% | +1.6% | strong-up | -4.3% |
| VTV | $219.44 | 65.6 | +0.8% | +3.7% | +1.6% | strong-up | -1.2% |
| MTUM | $321.71 | 50.0 | -2.8% | +2.2% | -1.3% | strong-up | -6.9% |
| QUAL | $218.49 | 61.0 | +1.0% | +2.4% | +1.3% | strong-up | -0.8% |
| RSP | $215.00 | 66.6 | +1.0% | +4.0% | +2.2% | strong-up | -0.3% |
Growth (VUG) closed most of the RSI gap with value (VTV) that defined the prior scan's "rotation is real" call (was 39.1 vs 61.7, now 54.9 vs 65.6). Value is still leading, but the divergence is narrowing, not widening — this looks more like broad-based strength than a hard style rotation now.
Promotion Candidates
- FXI — RSI 23.4→38.8 recovery off an extreme-oversold base; watch for a base above SMA20 before treating as a clean entry.
- GLD / SLV — both flipped from safe-haven failures to the week's biggest gainers (+2.4%/+4.7% 7D) on the dollar rollover; worth reopening a view (currently
no-view/unrated). - VGK / EWJ / EWG — confirmed strong-up breakouts near 52-week highs; international breadth is broadening, not a single-country story.
Rollover Risks
- UUP — if the dollar finds support here (RSI 58.9, still golden-cross) and re-strengthens, it snaps the entire commodity/international recovery back off. This is the single variable to watch.
- XHB / ITB — RSI cooling from near-overbought (67-69→55-57) after a strong June run; could be healthy digestion or an early rollover.
- AA / AGRO / CE — still in
collapse/downregimes with no floor signal; do not treat the broader macro recovery as a green light here.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-06-26)
| Category | Then | Now | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| UUP (dollar) | RSI 72.9, near-ATH | RSI 58.9 | Extended breakout cooled off — the macro pivot |
| GLD | RSI 35.8, -8.5% 30D | RSI 45.4, +2.4% 7D | Safe-haven bid returning as dollar unwinds |
| FXI | RSI 23.4 (extreme oversold) | RSI 38.8 | China stress easing meaningfully |
| VUG vs VTV | RSI 39.1 vs 61.7 (wide split) | RSI 54.9 vs 65.6 (narrowing) | Growth/value rotation fading, not widening |
| XHB/ITB | RSI 67.4/69.2 (near-overbought) | RSI 55.6/57.3 | Housing breakout digesting |
| AA | -26.0% 30D | -32.1% 30D | Aluminum still deteriorating, unrelated to dollar move |
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.