Macro / Commodities Scan
Macro / Commodities Scan
Oil is breaking down hard — USO -24.9% 30D (RSI 33), BNO -25.4% 30D (RSI 30.6); the crude complex is rolling over. Copper is the standout strength: COPX (+18.1% 3M, +16.1% vs SMA200) and TECK (RSI 58.4, +34.3% 3M, strong-up) lead. AGRO is the collapse — RSI 25.1, -27.6% 30D, -17.3% 7D. Dollar (UUP) overbought at RSI 73.4. Precious metals (GLD/SLV/GDX) in coordinated pullback; momentum/value US factor ETFs (MTUM/VTV/RSP) holding strong uptrends.
Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-18 (Fri 06-19 Juneteenth, closed). Several names 1-2d stale from yfinance throttle — flagged inline.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Sharply split — energy (USO/BNO/UNG-aside, OIH-class) and crude collapsing, but copper (COPX/TECK) and US factor ETFs (MTUM/VTV/QUAL/RSP) in strong uptrends. Precious metals coordinated pullback; ags weak with AGRO in outright collapse |
| Key insight | The crude complex is the macro tell — USO -24.9% / BNO -25.4% 30D into RSI low-30s. Copper diverges hard (COPX +18% 3M, TECK strong-up) — metals-vs-energy split is the cleanest signal. Dollar (UUP RSI 73.4) overbought; AGRO RSI 25.1 collapse is the single oversold extreme |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTUM | $338.52 | 65.6 | +6.3% | +2.10% | +12.03% | +37.13% | -2.99% | 🔒 Hold |
| XHB | $111.04 | 63.3 | +6.0% | +2.19% | +11.53% | +12.48% | -10.79% | 🔒 Hold |
| VTV | $216.50 | 62.8 | +1.4% | -0.60% | +3.58% | +10.19% | -0.87% | 🔒 Hold |
| EEM | $70.79 | 62.3 | +4.6% | +1.64% | +10.73% | +23.50% | -0.18% | 🔒 Hold |
| ITB | $99.25 | 61.9 | +5.4% | +0.80% | +15.29% | +9.68% | -15.89% | 🔒 Hold |
| EWJ | $96.26 | 66.5 | +4.2% | +2.46% | +7.19% | +15.10% | -0.27% | 🔒 Hold |
| TECK | $66.99 | 58.4 | +4.1% | +5.03% | +11.35% | +34.28% | -5.98% | 🔒 Hold (06-16, 2d stale) |
| VGK | $90.01 | 58.5 | +1.6% | +1.57% | +3.33% | +7.78% | -0.82% | 🔒 Hold (06-16, 2d stale) |
| INDA | $49.06 | 56.7 | +1.8% | +0.51% | +3.79% | +3.24% | -11.48% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 1d stale) |
| RSP | $209.96 | 56.0 | +0.5% | -1.59% | +2.56% | +8.61% | -0.99% | 🔒 Hold |
| QUAL | $215.89 | 55.5 | +0.2% | -1.32% | +1.48% | +11.16% | -0.94% | 🔒 Hold |
| UNG | $11.74 | 54.8 | +2.1% | +5.98% | +3.62% | -6.53% | -35.10% | 🔍 Watch |
| VUG | $86.98 | 52.6 | -0.4% | +0.07% | -0.57% | +16.35% | -4.21% | 🔒 Hold |
| SIL | $89.23 | 52.5 | +3.4% | +9.01% | -1.52% | -5.29% | -25.17% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| COPX | $85.48 | 50.5 | -0.7% | -4.89% | +7.70% | +18.10% | -14.51% | 🔒 Hold |
| EWG | $41.36 | 47.5 | -1.4% | -1.28% | +0.36% | +6.30% | -7.01% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 1d stale) |
| URA | $47.87 | 47.2 | -0.7% | +6.52% | -1.66% | -5.25% | -23.14% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| GDX | $82.51 | 46.9 | -1.4% | -4.49% | -1.52% | -0.47% | -29.59% | 🔍 Watch |
| GDXJ | $107.22 | 46.4 | -1.9% | -5.68% | -2.79% | -1.61% | -31.92% | 🔍 Watch |
| DBA | $26.84 | 46.0 | -0.3% | +1.22% | -5.09% | -0.48% | -7.66% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 1d stale) |
| GDRZF | $4.64 | 45.6 | -3.7% | +1.25% | -4.33% | +5.69% | -17.50% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 1d stale) |
| SOYB | $24.34 | 43.7 | -1.2% | +0.04% | -3.30% | +1.12% | -4.44% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| WEAT | $22.75 | 43.9 | -2.3% | -0.13% | -9.00% | +0.62% | -11.13% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| CE | $51.23 | 40.0 | -2.8% | -4.41% | -4.23% | -15.04% | -27.64% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 1d stale) |
| CORN | $17.15 | 39.0 | -2.1% | +0.41% | -8.48% | -8.92% | -11.40% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 1d stale) |
| SLV | $59.51 | 37.9 | -7.7% | -7.37% | -14.31% | -9.39% | -42.28% | 🔍 Watch |
| GLD | $387.12 | 38.4 | -3.5% | -3.34% | -5.92% | -9.21% | -24.05% | 🔍 Watch |
| FXE | $106.05 | 36.1 | -0.9% | -1.32% | -0.91% | -0.59% | -5.17% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 1d stale) |
| AA | $59.37 | 35.9 | -16.9% | -4.74% | -7.13% | +1.38% | -29.64% | 🔍 Watch |
| EWZ | $33.73 | 35.6 | -3.0% | -4.34% | -5.12% | -6.72% | -19.73% | 🔍 Watch |
| FXY | $57.09 | 34.3 | -0.6% | -0.80% | -1.09% | -2.01% | -11.74% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 1d stale) |
| FXI | $33.65 | 33.8 | -3.8% | -5.29% | -6.55% | -6.32% | -20.71% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 1d stale) |
| USO | $114.87 | 33.0 | -14.4% | -6.96% | -24.90% | -2.84% | -25.45% | 🔍 Watch |
| BNO | $43.88 | 30.6 ↓ | -12.9% | -3.48% | -25.39% | -14.20% | -27.84% | 🔍 Watch |
| AGRO | $9.64 | 25.1 ↓ | -19.1% | -17.34% | -27.63% | -33.43% | -41.85% | ❌ Don't Buy (06-17, 1d stale) |
UUP (Dollar) RSI 73.4↑ — overbought, +2.6% vs SMA200, strong-up, -1.83% from high (06-18 fresh). UUUU (uranium/rare-earth) RSI 47.9, downtrend, -45% from high (06-18 fresh). Both omitted from the body table above for length; see Tier Analysis.
Tier Analysis
Strong Uptrends / Hold (RSI 55-66): US factor ETFs lead — MTUM (RSI 65.6, +37.1% 3M, +28.7% vs SMA200, strong-up), VTV (62.8, strong-up), QUAL (55.5), RSP (56.0), VUG (52.6, +16.4% 3M) all in uptrend regimes near 52wk highs. International also strong: EWJ (Japan, RSI 66.5, +15.1% 3M), VGK (Europe, 58.5, strong-up), EEM (62.3, +23.5% 3M), XHB/ITB (homebuilders, RSI 61-63, +11-15% 30D). TECK (RSI 58.4, +34.3% 3M, +32.7% vs SMA200, strong-up) is the copper-miner leader.
Copper Strength / Hold (RSI 50.5): COPX (RSI 50.5, +18.1% 3M, +16.1% vs SMA200, strong-up regime, alpha1y +82) — copper is the diverging strength against energy. TECK (above) the single-name expression.
Pullback / Watch (RSI 38-47): Precious metals in coordinated pullback — GLD (RSI 38.4, -5.9% 30D, -24% from high), SLV (37.9, -14.3% 30D, -42% from high), GDX (46.9, -29.6% from high), GDXJ (46.4, downtrend), SIL (52.5, +9.0% 7D bounce). URA (47.2, +6.5% 7D), UUUU (47.9, -45% from high) uranium names mid-range. Ags soft — DBA (46.0), CORN (39.0, -8.5% 30D), WEAT (43.9, -9.0% 30D), SOYB (43.7) all basing/weak. FXI (China, RSI 33.8, strong-down, -20.7% from high) and EWZ (Brazil, 35.6) the weak EM single-countries. CE (40.0, -15% 3M) chemical weakness.
Crude Breakdown / Watch (RSI 30-34): USO (RSI 33.0, -24.9% 30D, -14.4% vs SMA20), BNO (RSI 30.6, -25.4% 30D, -27.8% from high) — the crude complex is rolling over hard. Both still hold golden cross (above SMA200) but trade deeply below near-term averages. Energy weakness is the dominant macro move this scan.
Collapse / Don't Buy (RSI 25.1): AGRO (RSI 25.1, -27.6% 30D, -33.4% 3M, -17.3% 7D, -19.1% vs SMA20, collapse regime) — single oversold extreme but in outright collapse with no floor. AA (RSI 35.9, -16.9% vs SMA20, -29.6% from high) also stretched below trend.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $387.12 | 38.4 | -5.92% | Gold pullback to RSI 38, -24% from high; coordinated metals weakness — watch for RSI <35 + stabilization near SMA200 ($408 reclaim is the trend test) |
| USO | $114.87 | 33.0 | -24.90% | Crude breakdown -24.9% 30D into RSI 33; still above SMA200 but no floor — energy weakness, contrarian only |
| COPX | $85.48 | 50.5 | +7.70% | Copper strength — +18% 3M, +16% vs SMA200, strong-up; constructive, watch for pullback to SMA20 ($86) entry |
| AGRO | $9.64 | 25.1 ↓ | -27.63% | Collapse — -33% 3M, no floor; oversold but structurally broken — avoid, not a value buy (06-17, 1d stale) |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | MTUM, VTV, QUAL, RSP, VUG, EWJ, VGK, EEM, XHB, ITB | US/intl factor + homebuilder ETFs in strong uptrends near highs |
| 🔒 HOLD | TECK, COPX | Copper strength — diverging from energy; constructive trends |
| 🔍 WATCH | GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, URA, UUUU | Precious metals + uranium coordinated pullback — watch for RSI turn + floors |
| 🔍 WATCH | USO, BNO, UNG | Crude/energy breakdown — oversold but no confirmed floors; contrarian only |
| 🔍 WATCH | DBA, CORN, WEAT, SOYB, FXI, EWZ, CE, AA, FXE, FXY | Ags / EM single-country / chemicals / currencies — weak, basing, no thrust |
| ⚠️ AVOID | UUP | Dollar RSI 73.4 overbought — don't chase |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | AGRO | RSI 25.1 collapse, -33% 3M, no floor — structurally broken |
What Changed
- Crude complex broke down — USO -24.9% 30D, BNO -25.4% 30D both into RSI low-30s; energy is the dominant macro weakness this scan
- Copper diverged strong — COPX +18.1% 3M (+16.1% vs SMA200), TECK +34.3% 3M strong-up; metals-vs-energy split is the clean signal
- Precious metals coordinated pullback — GLD (-5.9% 30D), SLV (-14.3% 30D, -42% from high), GDX/GDXJ -29% to -32% from highs; the whole complex retraced together
- Dollar overbought — UUP RSI 73.4, strong-up; consistent with metals/EM softness
- AGRO collapse — RSI 25.1, -27.6% 30D, -17.3% 7D; the single oversold extreme, in outright collapse
- US factor ETFs leading — MTUM (+37% 3M), VTV/VUG/QUAL/RSP all in strong uptrends near 52wk highs; the risk-on side of the tape is intact
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Copper (COPX +18% 3M, TECK +34% 3M) strong while crude (USO/BNO -25% 30D) collapses | Metals-vs-energy divergence — commodity strength is rotating to industrial metals, not oil |
| GLD/SLV/GDX/GDXJ all pulling back -5% to -14% 30D together while UUP overbought | Dollar-strength regime pressuring the whole precious-metals complex as one risk |
| MTUM/VTV/VUG/EEM/EWJ near 52wk highs while commodities split | Risk-on equity factor tape intact; the weakness is concentrated in energy + ags + metals pullback, not broad risk-off |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying USO/BNO on RSI low-30s "oversold" | -25% 30D breakdown with no floor; above SMA200 doesn't make it a dip — energy can keep bleeding |
| Treating AGRO RSI 25 as a contrarian entry | Collapse regime, -33% 3M, -17% 7D — oversold + collapsing is avoid, not buy |
Open Questions
- Is the crude breakdown (USO/BNO -25% 30D) a demand event, supply surge, or geopolitical de-escalation? (needs event verify — not in this scan)
- Does the copper strength (COPX/TECK) reflect AI-power/grid demand or a China-reflation bid? (cross-check vs ai-power/infra scans)
- Precious-metals pullback: is the GLD/SLV/GDX weakness a dollar-driven pause in a secular uptrend (still above multi-year), or a regime change?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.