Data as-of the 2026-07-17 settled close (all names current except noted). Numbers read directly from macro-commodities — no prose math. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-macro-commodities (2026-07-11).

Oil is the one place this week's Gulf escalation shows up cleanly, and it shows up hard. USO's RSI jumped from 40.1 to 58.9 and its 30-day change flipped from a -15.6% drawdown to a +7.91% gain — a genuine breakout, not a bounce, and the clearest tape confirmation yet of the reverted Hormuz blockade and the wider strikes on the Gulf states this week. But almost nothing else in the book is confirming a crisis or inflation regime alongside it. The dollar (UUP) actually cooled off its own high (RSI 61.6 → 54.4), reversing the prior scan's re-firming story — and yet gold, silver, and the miners kept falling anyway, breaking the "stronger dollar explains weaker metals" read that had held for two scans running. International equities and momentum both rolled over hard. This is a narrow, energy-specific move sitting on top of a broader cooling elsewhere.

• USO's RSI climbed nearly 19 points from the prior scan's 40.1, and the 30-day print flipped from a -15.6% drawdown into a +7.91% gain — the summary still tags the trend weak-down, but the move itself is the sharpest in the entire book this week.
• UNG kept moving the opposite direction, its 30-day loss deepening to -10.5% and staying strong-down — the same crude-vs-gas split flagged in the prior scan (only crude carries the Gulf supply-route exposure) continued.
• Neither name is close to its 52-week high (USO -19.6%, UNG -38.3%), so even oil's breakout reads as a recovery inside a longer drawdown rather than new highs.

• All four names weakened further — GLD's RSI slipped to 40 from 42.9, and SLV, GDX, SIL each lost several more RSI points, with GDX and SIL still tagged collapse regime.
• The dollar eased off its own high this week (UUP RSI 61.6 → 54.4), yet precious metals didn't catch the bid the prior scan's dollar-driven framing would predict — a real break in that relationship worth tracking going forward.
• SLV is now -53.8% from its 52-week high, the single deepest drawdown of any name in this scan.

• Wheat is now the hottest name in the whole book — RSI up to 72.8 from 61.2 two scans ago and edging into overbought, just -1.4% from its 52-week high.
• Copper (COPX) remains the group's laggard, RSI down to 41 and its 30-day drawdown deepening to -13.9% from -7.7%.
• Soybeans (RSI 63.1) and corn (RSI 58.5) both extended the grain rally, though CORN's underlying trend tag is still weak-up with a death-cross flagged in the summary — a bounce, not a confirmed reversal.

URA's collapse deepened further — RSI fell from 40.7 to 30.9, now sitting right at the edge of oversold, and the 30-day drawdown nearly doubled from -4.2% to -18.9%. Still tagged collapse regime, no floor signal in the data.

The dollar's re-firming from the prior scan already unwound — UUP's RSI eased from 61.6 to 54.4 this week, even though the trend tag still reads strong-up. Euro (FXE) picked up RSI (40.8 → 47.6) as the dollar cooled, the more textbook-consistent side of the move; yen (FXY) kept weakening, still strong-down.

Both names' 30-day figures turned negative this week — XHB -2.4% (from +0.9% in the prior scan) and ITB -1.9% (from +0.2%) — continuing the pullback flagged as "starting" last time. Neither is close to oversold, so this reads as continued digestion, not capitulation.

• Brazil (EWZ) gave back last scan's outperformance — RSI fell from 59.7 to 50.9 and 7D flipped from +4.2% to -2.0%, though the 30-day figure (+4.5%) is still the best in the region.
• Japan (EWJ) and broad emerging markets (EEM) both weakened hard — EWJ's RSI dropped from 55.9 to 41.7 and EEM's from 49.5 to 39.4, with EEM's 30-day drawdown widening to -10.6%.
• China (FXI) is the one name still improving, RSI up to 55.7 from 50.5 — the recovery flagged across the last two scans continued even as the rest of the international book cooled.

• Momentum (MTUM) is the clear laggard — RSI down to 41.1 from 50.4, and the 30-day figure flipped from +1.0% to -10.8%, the sharpest single reversal in the factor book.
• Growth (VUG) also weakened (RSI 57.2 → 46.6), while value (VTV) and quality (QUAL) held up comparatively better — a modest rotation away from momentum/growth, not a uniform risk-off.
• Equal-weight (RSP, RSI 55.0) still holds a strong-up trend and sits just -1.4% from its 52-week high, the best-positioned name in this group.

This tape doesn't fit one clean label. Oil's breakout (USO 30D +7.9%) and wheat's push toward overbought both read inflation-flavored and line up with the widened Gulf strikes and the reinstated Hormuz blockade. But gold and silver — the assets that would typically be first to price a durable war premium — kept falling even as the dollar eased, arguing against calling this a broad inflation or crisis-premium regime. Meanwhile momentum, housing, and most international equities cooled together, which reads more like an ordinary risk-off wobble than a stagflation signal. Read together: an oil-and-grain-specific supply premium sitting on top of a broader, unrelated cooling in growth-sensitive and rate-sensitive assets — a mixed tape, not a clean regime call.

• USO's breakout (RSI 40.1→58.9, 30D -15.6%→+7.9%) is the cleanest, most direct read on this week's Gulf escalation in the whole book — UNG did not confirm it, so this reads as an oil-specific, not broad-energy, story.
• UUP's RSI eased from 61.6 to 54.4, reversing the prior scan's dollar-refirming narrative — but gold/silver did not catch a bid on the weaker dollar, breaking the relationship flagged two scans running. Worth watching whether metals ever confirm either the dollar move or the crisis headline.
• Momentum (MTUM) and most of international equities (EWJ, EEM) cooled together this week — the broadest weak spot in the book outside of energy and grains.