Oil still elevated (USO RSI 75.2, +51.6% 30D) but off peak. Precious metals CRASHING: GLD RSI 30.8 (-10.9% 30D), GDX RSI 25.5 (-25.5% 30D), SIL RSI 27.2 (-27.5% 30D). Housing ITB/XHB RSI 20-22, capitulation continues. Agriculture trending up DBA/CORN/WEAT. Dollar firm UUP RSI 59.6. India INDA RSI 19.4 extreme oversold. Copper COPX RSI 30.1 approaching entry.

• USO has cooled from the RSI 85+ readings of last week but remains deeply extended at +20.8% above SMA20 and +60.8% above SMA200. The 75.2 RSI suggests momentum is still running but chasing here is dangerous.
• Natural gas (UNG) is a complete non-participant in the energy rally — still in a structural death cross with a 5Y alpha of -148.7% versus SPY. The nat gas/oil divergence is striking and may reflect LNG export dynamics vs domestic supply glut.
• Oil is the defining macro signal: the 3-month +75.8% run in USO has no precedent in recent cycles. Either there's an extraordinary geopolitical premium baked in, or this is a blow-off that precedes a violent reversal.

• The gold/silver complex has had a brutal two-week flush. GLD is approaching oversold (RSI 30.8) after a -10.9% 30D drop, while the miners (GDX, SIL) are in full capitulation at RSI 25 and 27. The miners have massively underperformed the metal itself — this kind of miner discount typically resolves with either a metal recovery or forced selling.
• Key observation: GLD's 1Y return is still +53.1% and its golden cross is intact. This looks like a momentum unwind after the parabolic run, not a structural breakdown. The 2Y alpha of +112.8% is extraordinary.
• SIL and GDX are in the extreme buy zone on a 12-month view — but requires conviction that the gold bull thesis holds. RSI 25-27 with 1Y returns of +79-100% = deep tactical oversold in a long-term uptrend.

• Copper miners (COPX) have crashed -22.4% in 30 days and are now approaching oversold at RSI 30.1. This is the growth recession signal — copper's industrial demand thesis is being priced out. The -17.6% vs SMA20 is the kind of extension that precedes relief bounces.
• Agriculture is the quiet winner: DBA, CORN, WEAT all trending up with golden crosses and no overbought extremes. The +13.3% 3M in wheat and +8.8% in soybeans suggest food price inflation is sticky and building.
• The copper/agriculture divergence is fascinating — base metals (growth signal) collapsing while soft commodities (food inflation) trend up. This is consistent with a slowing-but-inflationary environment.

• Uranium has pulled back -15.6% in 30 days, with RSI drifting toward oversold at 35.9. The golden cross is still intact and the 5Y return of +202.6% tells the structural story. This is a mid-cycle correction in a long-term bull thesis driven by AI data center power demand and SMR buildout.
• Entry zone is building — a test of SMA200 ($44.74) would be a compelling accumulation point for long-term holders.

• Dollar (UUP) is grinding higher with RSI 59.6 — not extreme but firmly in control. The +3% 3M move in the dollar index while equities sell off is the classic risk-off pattern.
• The yen (FXY) remains in structural decline — death cross confirmed, -18.4% over 3 years. The BOJ's inability to sustain rate hikes while the US holds higher for longer continues to punish FXY holders.
• Euro (FXE) is slightly firmer week-on-week (+0.9%) but still in a downtrend. The ECB's policy divergence with the Fed continues to weigh.

• Housing is in full capitulation. Both ETFs are at RSI 20-22, down 19-21% in 30 days, and now trading below SMA200 — the first time in the current cycle. This is not a pullback; it's structural damage.
• The mortgage rate/oil price double-squeeze is the culprit: oil inflation keeps the Fed hawkish while housing affordability crumbles. The homebuilder thesis requires a rate catalyst to reverse.
• Contrarian note: RSI 20-22 at -10% below SMA200 has historically marked tradeable bottoms in XHB. But the macro environment is NOT supportive — would need rate cut expectations or oil to crack first.

• The international complex is broadly selling off — every single market down 9-14% in 30 days. This is a global risk-off move, not regional.
• INDA (RSI 19.4) is at extreme oversold with a death cross confirmed. India was the growth darling of 2024-2025; this reversal is severe. The -14% 3M move puts it deep in capitulation territory. Watch for a dead cat bounce but the death cross is structurally bearish.
• Europe (VGK/EWG) approaching RSI 24-25 — similar to India's trajectory last week. Germany specifically (-13.9% 30D) is taking the brunt of the energy price shock.
• Brazil (EWZ) is the relative outperformer — positive on 3M basis despite 30D weakness, and RSI 38.9 is far from capitulation.

• Factor rotation is remarkably uniform — all five are down 5-10% in 30 days, with RSIs clustering in the 29-40 range. This is broad market pressure, not factor-specific.
• Value (VTV) is the relative winner with only +1.5% over 3 months vs growth's -10.4%. The rotation from growth to value that many expected is finally showing in the data.
• RSP (equal weight S&P) at RSI 29.4 approaching oversold — this measures the "average stock" and it's struggling. The market-cap-weighted indices look less bad because energy is a heavyweight beneficiary.
• MTUM is interesting: still positive at RSI 39.6 because the momentum factor is currently capturing the oil/energy trade. Watch for momentum factor rotation when energy peaks.

The macro-commodity picture today is not cleanly stagflationary anymore — it's sending mixed signals that suggest a transition is underway.

Oil (USO) is still +51.6% in 30 days and the energy sector is parabolic. That reads inflationary. But the gold/silver miners (GDX RSI 25, SIL RSI 27) are in free fall — miners are forward-looking and their collapse might be pricing in a demand slowdown that will eventually hit oil too.

Agriculture (DBA, CORN, WEAT) keeps trending up quietly — food inflation is sticky and real. Combined with energy costs, the consumer squeeze is intensifying.

Copper (COPX RSI 30) is the clearest growth recession signal: -22.4% in 30 days means the market is pricing significant industrial demand destruction.

Reading: The oil spike was the initial stagflation signal. The metals/miners collapse, copper crash, and housing capitulation suggest the market is now pricing the demand destruction that follows an energy shock. We may be in the late-stagflation/early-recession phase where commodities peak before equities fully price the growth slowdown.

The cross-asset message: Energy inflation is real but markets are starting to price the consequence — demand destruction. The safe play is still energy exposure, but entry risk is extreme. The contrarian opportunity is in the things that got crushed by the inflation narrative: miners (GDX/SIL), copper (COPX), and housing (ITB/XHB) — but only if/when energy peaks.

• Does the gold miners collapse (GDX/SIL) precede a gold peak, or is it a divergence that resolves with miners catching up?
• At what oil price does housing become uninvestable vs. a contrarian buy?
• Is COPX's -22% crash a leading indicator for oil (demand destruction coming) or just a China slowdown story?