Oil has gone fully parabolic — USO $107.93 (+36.8% 30D, RSI 81) is overbought and still accelerating while housing collapses (ITB RSI 27, -14.1% 30D) and international markets bleed. The stagflation signal intensifies: copper crashing (COPX -7.8% 30D), agriculture breaking out (WEAT +8.9%, SOYB +5.2%), dollar surging (UUP +2.3% 30D), and gold holding firm at $476. India (INDA RSI 30) is joining housing in oversold territory.

USO (Oil), UNG (Natural Gas)

• USO is in extreme overbought territory at RSI 81, trading 23.8% above SMA20. This is blow-off extension — the 7D move alone was +17.6%. Golden cross confirmed but price is massively extended above all moving averages (36.8% above SMA50, 45% above SMA200). Mean reversion risk is extreme.
• UNG continues to diverge from oil — up only +4.6% 30D vs USO's +36.8%. Natural gas not confirming the energy panic, reinforcing that this is a supply-shock story (geopolitical), not a broad energy demand boom.
• The oil-gas spread is the widest in this cycle. Watch for convergence.

GLD (Gold), SLV (Silver), GDX (Gold Miners), SIL (Silver Miners)

• Gold is the steady safe haven. GLD at $476 with RSI 56 — perfectly positioned, not overextended, golden cross intact. The +21.1% 3M move has been orderly, not parabolic like oil.
• Miners continue to lag spot gold. GDX is -2.6% below SMA20 while GLD is +1.3% above. Energy costs (oil spike) are eating into miner margins — miners are NOT a reliable gold proxy in this environment.
• SLV's +35.2% 3M is impressive but it's sitting right at SMA50 ($77.96 vs $77.88 price). Industrial demand uncertainty keeping silver choppy.

COPX (Copper), DBA (Agriculture), WEAT (Wheat), CORN (Corn), SOYB (Soybeans)

• Copper crashing while agriculture breaks out remains the textbook stagflation signal. COPX at -7.8% 30D and -5.9% below SMA20 says industrial demand is dying. Meanwhile WEAT +8.9%, SOYB +5.2%, CORN +4.7% all positive on 30D.
• SOYB is the stealth winner — only -1.8% from 52-week high with RSI 73 and golden cross. Soybeans leading the ag complex.
• DBA at RSI 71 is getting extended. The broad agriculture basket approaching overbought territory — the easy money in ag may be behind us.

URA (Uranium ETF)

• URA stabilizing after the risk-off selloff. RSI 49 is neutral territory, sitting just below SMA20 (-1.3%) with golden cross intact. The nuclear/AI power thesis remains but the stock is trading with broad risk sentiment.
• Oil spike theoretically makes nuclear more attractive as an alternative, but the market hasn't priced that in yet.
• Watch $48-50 as support zone; the +11.9% 3M trend is still intact.

UUP (Dollar), FXE (Euro), FXY (Yen)

• Dollar dominance continues. UUP at RSI 66 with golden cross and strong-up trend. The +2.3% 30D move in a currency ETF is significant — USD is the global flight-to-safety destination.
• Yen death cross is concerning. FXY has a confirmed death cross with RSI 38 — in a traditional risk-off, yen should strengthen as carry trades unwind. Persistent yen weakness suggests BOJ policy is overwhelming safe-haven demand.
• Euro weakening (-2.1% 30D) confirms European economic deterioration. FXE at RSI 36, approaching oversold.

XHB (Homebuilders), ITB (Home Construction)

• Housing is in capitulation territory. ITB at RSI 27 and -9.6% below SMA20 is the most oversold reading in the entire macro scan. XHB at RSI 29 confirms — both are at extreme oversold levels.
• The -14.1% 30D collapse in ITB prices in the Fed being trapped: oil-driven inflation kills any hope of rate cuts, and housing pays the price. ITB is -17.1% from 52-week high.
• Contrarian signal emerging — RSI sub-30 in housing ETFs has historically marked tradeable bottoms, but you need the oil spike to reverse first.

VGK (Europe), EWG (Germany), EWZ (Brazil), INDA (India), EWJ (Japan), FXI (China), EEM (Emerging Markets)

• India is joining the oversold club. INDA at RSI 30 with a confirmed death cross and -6.8% 3M is the worst-performing EM market. The India growth story is getting repriced — strong dollar + oil spike hits India (a major oil importer) from both sides.
• Brazil remains the lone bright spot. EWZ at RSI 51, +17.1% 3M, and only -1.7% below SMA20. As a commodity exporter, Brazil benefits from higher oil and agriculture prices — the mirror image of what's hurting everyone else.
• Germany (EWG RSI 33) approaching oversold as the export-driven industrial economy suffers from dollar strength + energy costs. Europe broadly weak (VGK -5.3% 30D).

VUG (Growth), VTV (Value), MTUM (Momentum), QUAL (Quality), RSP (Equal-Weight S&P)

• Growth (VUG) continues to outperform Value (VTV) in the selloff. VUG -1.2% 30D vs VTV -3.3% — mega-cap tech acting as the new defensive. VUG sitting exactly on SMA20 while VTV is -2.5% below.
• RSP underperforming confirms breadth deterioration. Equal-weight S&P at RSI 38 and -2.5% below SMA20 — the average stock is doing meaningfully worse than the cap-weighted index. Market leadership is narrowing.
• MTUM at RSI 46 and -2.7% 30D — momentum factor not working, trend-following strategies getting whipsawed by cross-currents.

The stagflation signal has intensified since last scan:

1. Oil parabolic (USO +36.8% 30D, RSI 81) — supply shock continuing, now at extreme overbought levels
2. Agriculture accelerating (WEAT +8.9%, SOYB +5.2%, CORN +4.7%) — food inflation building with SOYB near 52-week highs
3. Copper crashing (COPX -7.8% 30D) — industrial demand destruction confirmed
4. Gold steady (+1.8% 30D) — safe haven bid intact, orderly uptrend
5. Dollar surging (UUP +2.3% 30D) — flight to USD amplifying pain for rest of world
6. Housing capitulating (ITB RSI 27, -14.1% 30D) — rate-sensitive assets pricing out Fed cuts entirely

The oil-copper divergence (USO +36.8% vs COPX -7.8%) is the most reliable stagflation indicator. Oil up = costs rising. Copper down = demand falling. Both happening simultaneously = economy squeezed from both directions.

Bottom line: Stagflation signal is now at peak intensity. Oil overbought (RSI 81) suggests a snapback is possible, but the underlying supply disruption hasn't resolved. Housing and India are in oversold capitulation — contrarian entries emerging but too early without oil reversal. The Fed is trapped between reaccelerating inflation and decelerating growth.

• Has USO RSI 81 marked the blow-off top or will supply disruption push oil higher?
• When does housing RSI sub-30 become actionable? Need oil reversal + Fed language shift.
• Is India's death cross a structural downgrade or a cyclical oversold opportunity?
• Will the yen death cross resolve via BOJ intervention or further yen weakness?

Scan generated: 2026-03-11 | Data: pre-computed summaries with RSI, SMA20/50/200, trend signals. All numbers from macro-commodities.json.