Oil is parabolic (USO +51.8% 30D, RSI 84), food commodities are breaking out on supply fears, gold is a steady safe-haven bid — but housing is in freefall and international equities are retreating, painting a stagflationary picture where commodity inflation is accelerating as growth expectations deteriorate.

USO at RSI 84 with a +51.8% 30-day gain is not a trade — it's a geopolitical event that has already moved. The Strait of Hormuz situation has delivered one of the most violent commodity moves in recent memory. Crude has made a golden cross and is 30% above its 20-day SMA — an extreme reading that historically precedes either a pause or a blowoff.

The trade: Do NOT chase USO at RSI 84. The thesis is well-known and priced. If you don't already own energy (XOM, CVX, OXY, XLE — see geopolitical scan), you are late to the primary move. Watch for a 10-15% pullback with RSI reset to 55-60 before re-entry. UNG is the wildcard — up +9% this week after a death cross, still down 43% from its 52-week high. Natural gas has a separate supply thesis unrelated to Hormuz; the uptick is worth watching but don't confuse it with crude's rally.

GLD at RSI 52 is the most impressive chart in this scan — +19% in 3 months while staying RSI neutral. This is systematic accumulation by central banks and institutions, not retail panic-buying. It doesn't look like a bubble because it isn't one. Gold is working exactly as designed: slow, steady safe-haven bid as USD stays strong and geopolitical risk persists.

The divergence between GLD (steady +19% 3M) and GDX/SIL (flat 30D, RSI 43-45) is notable. Miners are lagging the metal. This usually resolves with miners catching up — energy costs eating into margins is one risk, but at $470 gold, most miners are printing cash. GDX/SIL below their 20-day SMA while gold is flat to SMA is a dislocation worth watching as an entry.

SLV at +13.8% 30D but RSI only 50 and in a weak-down trend — silver is not confirming gold's strength. Still down 29.7% from its 52-week high despite the 3-month rally. Silver is more industrial than gold, so the mixed signal reflects competing forces: safe-haven bid (bullish) vs. global industrial slowdown fear (bearish).

Food commodities are the stealth story here. SOYB at RSI 78, CORN at RSI 71, DBA at RSI 74 — all three are at or near 52-week highs. The simultaneous move suggests this is not one crop story (weather event) but a systemic input cost/supply disruption story. With oil ripping (fertilizer costs), and geopolitical risk in grain-producing regions, the agricultural breakout has legs.

WEAT is the most interesting — RSI 63, up 8.1% in 30 days but still below its 52-week high, and notably has a death cross (SMA50 below SMA200) that the current move is challenging. If wheat breaks above its 52-week high, that would be a meaningful signal about global food inflation.

COPX (copper) is the outlier — down 7.9% in 30D while agriculture rips. Copper is the growth indicator; its weakness while food commodities surge is a classic stagflationary setup: supply disruption inflation (food, energy) coexisting with deteriorating growth expectations (copper, housing).

URA at RSI 47, -1% 30D, but golden cross intact. Nuclear's secular thesis hasn't changed — AI data center power demand, grid reliability concerns, decarbonization. But uranium is consolidating after a massive 3-year run (+198%). This is healthy. The dip below SMA20 and SMA50 while holding SMA200 support suggests a reset, not a reversal.

UUP (USD) at RSI 73, strong-up trend with golden cross — the dollar is strengthening. This creates a headwind for everything priced in dollars (commodities), a tailwind for dollar-denominated assets. But crucially, it's hammering EM currencies and international markets.

FXE (Euro) at RSI 29.5 is entering oversold territory. The Euro is being pressured by European defense spending commitments (fiscal expansion = bond selling = EUR weakness) and lingering growth concerns. At RSI 29.5, FXE is approaching a technical bounce level. FXY (Yen) is worse — RSI 32, strong-down trend, death cross. BoJ is raising rates slowly but the carry trade unwind is not complete.

XHB and ITB at RSI 22-24 with -15 to -17% 30-day declines are in full capitulation mode. Both are 10-11% below their 20-day SMAs — extreme readings. Mortgage rates stubbornly elevated + oil shock = stagflationary housing bust scenario. Homebuilders are caught between high input costs (energy, materials) and affordability limits on the demand side.

This is NOT a buy signal yet. Falling-knife status. But RSI <25 in a quality sector ETF historically precedes a 15-20% bounce over the following 2-3 months. Set an alert. Do not buy today, but put XHB $95 on your watchlist.

The verdict: Stagflationary.

The commodity complex is giving a clear signal:

• Inflationary pressures: Energy ripping (+51% USO), food breaking out (SOYB, CORN, DBA all near RSI 70-78), gold accumulating — classic supply-shock inflation
• Deflationary/recessionary pressures: Copper weak (-7.9%), housing collapsing (-17%), international equity selloff, EM weakness — classic demand destruction signal
• The combination = stagflation: Prices rising in necessities (food, energy) while growth assets and housing deteriorate

The 1970s analogy is imperfect but instructive. Oil shocks + geopolitical disruption + sticky food inflation + weakening growth = a playbook central banks cannot easily solve with rate cuts (inflation) or rate hikes (kills growth further).

Winners in stagflation: Energy producers, gold, agricultural commodities, defense Losers in stagflation: Tech growth (multiple compression), housing, consumer discretionary, emerging markets dependent on cheap imports

• USO continued its parabolic run — was up ~38% 30D two days ago, now +51.8%. The move is accelerating, not slowing.
• Housing capitulation deepening — XHB/ITB dropped another 6-7% this week; RSI falling from ~30 to 22-24.
• Agriculture breakout confirmed — SOYB, CORN, DBA all closed near 52-week highs; no longer just wheat/geopolitical, now broad food inflation.
• International equity selling intensified — INDA (India) joined the selloff at RSI 23, EWG (Germany) approaching oversold at RSI 30.
• GLD holding steady despite oil surge; gold is not in panic-buying mode, which is actually bullish — this is institutional accumulation, not crisis buying.

• Does the Hormuz situation de-escalate and cause a 20% oil reversal, or does it sustain into a structural supply reduction?
• Is the copper weakness (COPX -7.9%) leading the broader market lower, as it historically tends to do 2-3 months in advance?
• Food inflation breakout — is this a geopolitical supply shock (Ukraine wheat, Middle East disruption) or a more structural climate-related trend?
• When does the Fed break — oil shock = inflationary, which argues against cuts, but housing collapse + equity selloff = needs stimulus. The Fed is trapped.
• GDX/SIL lagging gold — when does this divergence close? At what gold price does miner cash flow accelerate enough to force re-rating?