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Previous version: [2026-03-24-gold-crash.md]

Status: ACTIVE — Stabilizing after capitulation, dollar squeeze thesis confirmed

Narrative arc: Crisis → Recovery inflection

The Update

Gold is recovering from one of the most extreme capitulation events in years. The forced liquidation wave appears to be exhausting itself, but the structural dollar squeeze remains.

What the Data Tells Us

The RSI recovery is NOT a price recovery. GLD RSI went from 15 to 31 but the price continued falling ($405 → $400). This means the rate of decline slowed dramatically — the selling exhaustion is real — but buyers haven't shown up yet. The RSI improvement is a deceleration signal, not a reversal signal.

SLV is worse than GLD. Silver at -15.9% vs SMA20 compared to gold's -11.3%. When silver underperforms gold in a selloff, it's confirming the industrial demand destruction thesis (silver has industrial uses, gold doesn't). This aligns with the broader recession fear.

Hypothesis Update

1. Dollar Squeeze — CONFIRMED as primary driver UUP still at RSI 63,