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Previous: [2026-03-26-gold-crash.md] Renamed from "Gold Crash Anomaly" → "Gold Recovery" — the crash is over, the question now is how far it recovers.

Status: ACTIVE — Capitulation confirmed over; recovery underway

Narrative arc: Crisis → Recovery inflection → Confirmed recovery

The gold crash perspective has evolved. What started as "gold is crashing anomalously during a war" is now "gold capitulation is over and the recovery has begun." The evidence is clear: GLD is up $28 in 5 days (+6.9%), GDX miners are up 10.4%, and critically — the dollar (the primary driver of the crash) has started cooling.

The Recovery Data

The key signal: Silver is outperforming gold on the recovery (+11.6% vs +6.9%). When silver leads, it's confirming a genuine precious metals recovery, not just short-covering in gold. Silver has industrial and monetary uses — silver outperforming means markets believe in both the safe-haven AND the demand recovery narratives.

Miners (GDX) also outperforming: +10.4% vs +6.9% for gold spot. Miners leverage gold prices 2-3x on the upside. At RSI 37.6 after a 10%+ bo