Bifurcated consumer: defensive brands holding, discretionary names getting crushed by tariff anxiety and macro drag. NKE is the standout bleeder; CROX is the surprise rip.

Tier 1 — Working (hold/don't chase)

• SBUX ($97.48, RSI 57.9): The turnaround is real. Golden cross confirmed, +9.8% above SMA200, only -7% from 52-week high. Niccol's restructuring narrative intact. This is the one consumer name threading the macro needle.
• CROX ($100.22, RSI 73.2): +26.9% in 30 days, now sitting 18% above all three SMAs. Do not buy here. Flag for pullback watch at RSI < 50.

Tier 2 — Bouncing but structurally broken

• LULU ($162.56, RSI 50): The 5.6% 7D bounce looks like relief, not reversal. Still -12.9% below SMA200, -52.2% from 52wk high. Death cross in place. Any bounce into $175-$180 is a fade candidate.
• HIMS ($21.15, RSI 52.1): GLP-1 narrative still kneecapped by FDA/compounding regulation uncertainty. -32.5% in 3M, -70% from peak. Optically cheap but the overhang is real.
• CMG ($34.59, RSI 54.2): Post-split price looks affordable but -40.8% from highs, -12.3% below SMA200. Tariff exposure on avocados/beef is real consumer cost concern.

Tier 3 — Falling knives

• NKE ($42.91, RSI 24): The stat line is brutal — -34.1% in 3 months, -46.5% from 52-week high, -34.2% below SMA200. China revenue headwinds + tariff cost exposure + brand erosion. RSI 24 is oversold but this is a value trap until restructuring shows traction. Do not buy on RSI alone.
• DPZ ($368.83, RSI 46.2): Steady deterioration, -26.1% from highs, death cross. Quick-service restaurants are getting hit by consumer trade-down but even the trade-down beneficiaries aren't immune.