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Camp 1: "US Energy Dominance" (Bullish equities + oil)

• @DarkWireIntel: "Venezuela + Hormuz = US controls global oil supply is the bull case"
• @GmOrr9000: "Play it out. China has enormous reserves. US is net exporter. Let's wait 3 months with Hormuz closed."
• Reddit WSB: "Israel strikes Beirut, oil CRASHES 16%. Make it make sense." — market pricing US control narrative, not chaos
• Reddit: Someone read 98 S&P 500 10-Ks — "banks are way more exposed than oil companies" to the war. Energy sector is hedged.

Thesis: The blockade is INTENTIONAL US leverage. America is a net energy exporter. Closing Hormuz hurts Iran and China more than the US. Equities rally because the market is pricing American energy hegemony.

Camp 2: "Nonlinear Crisis Coming" (Bearish everything, eventually)

• Semafor: Late May deadline for nonlinear oil price spikes when reserves breach thresholds. 4 months to normalize even with ceasefire.
• Reddit WSB: Asian floating inventories fell from 102M barrels to 42M in 3 weeks. "Traders are so caught up in headlines they've lost track of the 8-ball."
• Reddit: "The hurricane is on its way. Hormuz blocked 4 weeks. Full disruption effects haven't hit yet. This is just the mild wind gusts."
• Reddit: Force majeure notices going out to SK, JP, India. Oil companies literally saying "we can't deliver."
• @Layan22_22: "IEA says current prices are a dangerous illusion...